I don't really know. I hope that gets asked at the Flag Panel at Hook. I intend to ask during my upcoming training track too.
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FY-15 ADHSB
- Thread starter HooverPilot
- Start date
I will ask at Hook. I suppose my question will include my Operational EP, my RAG tour, my second EP, my Masters, and my Flag Aide tour at a 4-star command. Am I bitter? No, I'll survive and I imagine I'll find my way into VAQ-209 or some other Reserve gig. But I am genuinely concerned for a community that I love. I'm a lot of things, but what I'm not is a hater. VAQ is my family and friends, I believe in it's mission and I fear that has been compromised by a board with no mechanism to understand community requirements. Our leadership needs to act and say that accepting a near 100% DH rate (because that's where we are headed) is unacceptable and dangerous. I'm sorry, I'm good at what I do and there are dudes on the promotion list that got sent to crap jobs because they were deemed unfit to transition to G's that will now have to be transitioned just to have enough bodies to fill DH slots. WTF are we doing? There are some awesome dudes who are about to take command...some of them have posted on this thread. I would follow one in particular anywhere he lead...but five years from now there will be also-rans running our squadrons for reasons that simply cannot be explained.
I agree that such disperate selection percentages by community for a board that is supposed to not keep quota or discriminate by designator is scary. Sure, they can surely see 4 years of NOBs in the beginning of an 13xx's career, but Sea Tour EP/Shore Tour EP/Boat not playing doesn't computer to this stupid LT.
I'm not ready to blame "the SWO's get DH earlier" as much as I think the precept guidance may have been an issue.
But, the number of 1310/1320's selected, although on the low end, seems to be within the norm (total number, not % selected). To make it worse, there were more IZ than there traditionally have been, thus lowering the % selected. YG04 is big and zones have been monkeyed around with the last few years. All this makes for a "Perfect Storm".
But, the number of 1310/1320's selected, although on the low end, seems to be within the norm (total number, not % selected). To make it worse, there were more IZ than there traditionally have been, thus lowering the % selected. YG04 is big and zones have been monkeyed around with the last few years. All this makes for a "Perfect Storm".
Is it now making more of a difference since the precept % has gone down? Since the % is now lower are the lower # of competitive fitreps a 13XX could have before the board now an issue? I'd wager that fleet average for 13XXs is two competitive fitreps before the board. A few folks may have three. Or is it simply that Naval Aviation is overmanned?
Assuming for the sake of argument, then, that YG04 was overmanned, why bring so many to the board if you know they'll be slaughtered? Seems to me that it would behoove the Bureau to have a more even flow through the lineal list. I mean, I understand the purpose of screening people here, but if you're going to have a wildly varying input for a more or less fixed output, your wildly varying selection rates are going to give you wildly varying differences in the quality (perceived or actual) of people who get picked. And that's absolute poison for the Bureau's credibility, and for JO morale and retention. I realize that despite our wild spitballing earlier about how to blow up the promotion process and start over, that realistically everyone needs to work within the constraints of DOPMA here. What I'm asking (because I don't know) is whose hands were tied, then, that this big glut of officers had to come before the board and get cut off at the knees?
As much as we bitch about timing and sliding zones, I think any JO would trade two more years as a LT for losing their job at a board like this.
Edit: Given the descriptions of the process as I understand it, how does this even make sense, though? If the process is designator-agnostic, then the number of LCDRs selected being the same is a statistical fluke, no? Am I missing something?
As much as we bitch about timing and sliding zones, I think any JO would trade two more years as a LT for losing their job at a board like this.
Edit: Given the descriptions of the process as I understand it, how does this even make sense, though? If the process is designator-agnostic, then the number of LCDRs selected being the same is a statistical fluke, no? Am I missing something?
I think your comments are spot on. I don't have an answer to your edit question.
I think the monkeying with YGs lately has been crazy. Maybe the bureau saw that there was a glut, monkeyed to try to fix it, saw it couldn't be fixed or put off forever (unless you stagnate everyone below a year) so they bit the bullet on an already full YG - pulled the bandaid off. I think next year will be (slightly) less painful and things will stabilize over the next 3-5 years back to our normal rates. Of course this is no consolation for what just happened to many great folks.
I think the monkeying with YGs lately has been crazy. Maybe the bureau saw that there was a glut, monkeyed to try to fix it, saw it couldn't be fixed or put off forever (unless you stagnate everyone below a year) so they bit the bullet on an already full YG - pulled the bandaid off. I think next year will be (slightly) less painful and things will stabilize over the next 3-5 years back to our normal rates. Of course this is no consolation for what just happened to many great folks.
Very good chance ??? If I was a JO, I would storm the joint and make sure everyone knew it was better than a "good chance" that your voice was heard. You folks own the future . . .
Well, half of them do.
Perhaps this is basic and y'all had already thought of it, but maybe we're feeling the after-effects of many blackshoes getting out at the end of their 4 (or some at 5 now) years. It may take only the desire to stay on for some folks to make DH in the blackshoe world (I don't know, I'm not there), so maybe the need to advance blackshoes is even stronger than on our side. Maybe they have an even bigger crisis, and the 13XX IZ crowd has to take the hit to make the precept % work.
From another angle, I would like to see how the number that get advanced to O-4 compares with the original # of commissionees in each YG. The 11XX community already self-selected by getting out when they could, and the 13XX community hasn't yet. Some may have sent the signal with non-flying orders (intentionally or not), and some may have sent the signal with substandard performance and gotten an MP (or two, and I recognize many get the MPs with a "you're a great officer, but... timing" excuse). Those folks are in the non-select %. Those in the 11XX community were not in the non-select column because they're already out.
From another angle, I would like to see how the number that get advanced to O-4 compares with the original # of commissionees in each YG. The 11XX community already self-selected by getting out when they could, and the 13XX community hasn't yet. Some may have sent the signal with non-flying orders (intentionally or not), and some may have sent the signal with substandard performance and gotten an MP (or two, and I recognize many get the MPs with a "you're a great officer, but... timing" excuse). Those folks are in the non-select %. Those in the 11XX community were not in the non-select column because they're already out.
The problem with trying to blame the promotion percentage on large numbers is that it doesn't make sense with how the promotion boards work. If all of the records were looked at fairly and equally according to the precepts briefed for each community, then we should have about a 60-70% promotion rate across all URL's. What this really speaks to IMO is that the brief for what constitutes a good 13xx record was fucked up.
The only time that having too many numbers should result in a low board % is for things like DH and CMD, where you are only allowed to advance a certain number per community.
Just to answer a few of the questions brought up here:
- The zones are made without regard to designator. See this for the law on how they are decided, and this for the DOD rules, and finally this for the Navy's. Lineal numbers are established upon an officer's entry and not change except for promotions (and then they will stay the same relatively speaking, unless somebody is picked up above or below zone). If the required number of in-zone URL officers skews heavily towards aviation or any other designator there is no mechanism to correct that, and more of them will be in zone that year.
- Who is on the board is covered here. It also describes the rest of the board process. This should be required reading for JOs.
- SWOs go into the O-4 board with an x/3 or x/4 FITREP as a DH. Unless they are in the "sick, lam,e or crazy" category, they all have a great chance to have a competitive #1 or #2 EP as a DH. while their aviator counterparts in front of the O-4 board have much larger (and thus more challenging) competitive groups. SWOs have their large competitive groups as ENS and JGs, where they can get away with pack and pack minus performances on their first tours, because they have already made the cut (by attrition or approved performance) to get a chance at DH. The results of this are pretty similar to the results of O-5 promotion if you compare VFA types to helo/P-3 types. VFA has smaller competitive groups for their DHs, and far more of their DHs walk away with a #1 or #2 competitive EP.
- The zones are made without regard to designator. See this for the law on how they are decided, and this for the DOD rules, and finally this for the Navy's. Lineal numbers are established upon an officer's entry and not change except for promotions (and then they will stay the same relatively speaking, unless somebody is picked up above or below zone). If the required number of in-zone URL officers skews heavily towards aviation or any other designator there is no mechanism to correct that, and more of them will be in zone that year.
- Who is on the board is covered here. It also describes the rest of the board process. This should be required reading for JOs.
- SWOs go into the O-4 board with an x/3 or x/4 FITREP as a DH. Unless they are in the "sick, lam,e or crazy" category, they all have a great chance to have a competitive #1 or #2 EP as a DH. while their aviator counterparts in front of the O-4 board have much larger (and thus more challenging) competitive groups. SWOs have their large competitive groups as ENS and JGs, where they can get away with pack and pack minus performances on their first tours, because they have already made the cut (by attrition or approved performance) to get a chance at DH. The results of this are pretty similar to the results of O-5 promotion if you compare VFA types to helo/P-3 types. VFA has smaller competitive groups for their DHs, and far more of their DHs walk away with a #1 or #2 competitive EP.
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Has anyone else noticed/commented on the fact that it seems that folks doing the VTs for their shore tours were hit particularly hard? That's just my anecdotal observation, but I don't know anyone who did a VT tour who got selected for O-4 this year, even with two EPs.