Yes, we did a non scientific scrub of the list in my VT wardroom and we only came up with one Primary IP(prior helos) and two guys from NFO primary(both VP), all 1310 who made it. There were probably a couple we missed but not many.
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FY-15 ADHSB
- Thread starter HooverPilot
- Start date
This isn't too surprising to me. As we've observed before, production tours are important for Aviator career progression, but some production tours are more important, better for the career, whatever (as to whether that's valid or fair, that point has been discussed ad nausuem. Let's just use it as a working assumption). I'd be willing to bet that a lot of the 13X0s who made the cut were #1/#2 EPs who then subsequently went on to the FRS or Weapons Schools. As a generalization, most squadron's #1/#2s go that route. Folks with lower rankings would then fill other production tours and their chances at promotion would be lower because of their lower rankings from their first squadron.
From my experience with this and from a small data set of my peers from my first squadron, of the ten of us in our last competitive fitrep cycle, 7 got EPs. Only the #5 EP or higher has subsequently been promoted which seems to be pretty darn close to the historical RW promotion rate over the past few years of ~50%. I'd also imagine it'd be safe to wager that the board will hold performance at sea higher than performance ashore (it's the Navy after all). So, shore tour performance won't save a record that has a weak(er) sea tour performance.
In conclusion, the need for JOs to perform well at their first command CAN NOT be overstated. Also, good management of JOs for DHs and COs can not be overstated because they need to realize that they're essentially making a career decision for their JOs.
As a CO will you storm the joint to back up your JOs and find out why they aren't promoted at the same rate as their 11XX counterparts?
In my community - absolutely, already have numerous times, just in a different venue. And yes, I would be curious to see how many CO's are there supporting their JO's.
My frustration is with the Navy's OP-T DH's. Last time I checked, their selection rate to O5 is at zero %. That is complete bullshit IMHO. We also get a lot of disassociated tour LT's who are either out of their community or just want to jump off the path and be in a certain geo location. That's fine as long as they get good counseling on what their future holds. But again, I have seen some really, really good OP-T DH's who will never make O5 unless they transition to AEDO, FAO, FTS, etc. But even then, they need good paper coming out of their first sea tour.
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This was discussed in the Pers 43 brief at NHA this year. Basically there aren't even enough "golden path" joint jobs for OP DH's with #1 tickets. 2nd in line are the OP DH's with #2 tickets, and OP-T DH's run at the bottom of the priority list, thus Pers doesn't even attempt to get them the jobs to keep them on track, as it would derail a front running OP guy.
Like I pointed out before, it's not the selection rate that screwed people this board, it's the ridiculous mismanagement of the zones that did it. I'm a middle of the pack 05 year group and I got pulled up into this board and was fairly junior in the in zone group. By doing that it put me in the board with one competitive EP as my highwater out of my second command came this past week from the squadron's change of command, well after the board met.
I know a few other guys that were in the same situation, not quite done with their second tour.
The point I'm making isn't that it's the significantly low selection rate that screwed people, the raw numbers selected are fairly consistent with previous years. It's that the Navy deciding to make an in-zone decision that included a year group that apparently had an over accession of individuals way back n the day (04 YG) while also supplementing it with bodies from 05 with an apparently consistent need for numbers of bodies for aviation.
Do they have a excessively small in zone group next year? Do they keep up this large in zone grouping to weed folks out? Like someone mentioned before, there are a few folks who know that answer but probably won't or can't answer it.
What will be interesting is watching if this ties the hands of Naval Aviation with respect to the DH screen. Getting rid of so many people while keeping accessions the same (or even less) than previous years will slowly push the DH screen rate up to and equal with 100%.
Intentionally or not, Naval Aviation is going to have some interesting decisions over the next 2-3 years, if not longer, to correct the problem that just popped up from this board.
I know a few other guys that were in the same situation, not quite done with their second tour.
The point I'm making isn't that it's the significantly low selection rate that screwed people, the raw numbers selected are fairly consistent with previous years. It's that the Navy deciding to make an in-zone decision that included a year group that apparently had an over accession of individuals way back n the day (04 YG) while also supplementing it with bodies from 05 with an apparently consistent need for numbers of bodies for aviation.
Do they have a excessively small in zone group next year? Do they keep up this large in zone grouping to weed folks out? Like someone mentioned before, there are a few folks who know that answer but probably won't or can't answer it.
What will be interesting is watching if this ties the hands of Naval Aviation with respect to the DH screen. Getting rid of so many people while keeping accessions the same (or even less) than previous years will slowly push the DH screen rate up to and equal with 100%.
Intentionally or not, Naval Aviation is going to have some interesting decisions over the next 2-3 years, if not longer, to correct the problem that just popped up from this board.
I'm sure most of the folks here already know this, but just incase anyone forgot: Naval aviation does not care about this year group, or any other year group. It's not personal, it's just business.
To those LTs who just got passed over: Your chances of picking up O4 on your second look are not good. It's time for you to get your ATP and start working on your resume. Prepare yourself, your family and your finances for the transition the the civilian world now.
Also, there are hundreds of aviators who are exactly in the same position as you. A lot of them are going to be looking for a seat in a USNR squadron in the next few months. I recommend that you get over your shock very quickly and start working towards getting a spot in a USNR squadron, before all the seats are filled.
Good luck.
To those LTs who just got passed over: Your chances of picking up O4 on your second look are not good. It's time for you to get your ATP and start working on your resume. Prepare yourself, your family and your finances for the transition the the civilian world now.
Also, there are hundreds of aviators who are exactly in the same position as you. A lot of them are going to be looking for a seat in a USNR squadron in the next few months. I recommend that you get over your shock very quickly and start working towards getting a spot in a USNR squadron, before all the seats are filled.
Good luck.
Actually, you got Un-pushed-out of the board. Historically, May/June graduates screen for O-4 9 years after commissioning (YG05 = FY15 O-4 board). Overmanning led PERS to shift the zones earlier and the cutoff became somewhere in the middle of the USNA/May ROTC commissionees (It was usually somewhere late summer to winter). If you only got one BZ look, it's because PERS is moving the zone cutoff back down towards the late-summer grads.
I'm YG06, just ahead of USNA guys in lineal, and I was at the bottom of the projected FY16 IZ group 3-4 years ago, now I'm near the middle.
The PERS-43 brief, from Tailhook 2013, is very informative. http://new.livestream.com/wab/tailhook
You will see a graph which shows the aviation inventory for each year group. There is a change from YG04 to YG05; around 100 less people. Though it is not much, the selection rate for O-4 should be better next year. As mentioned before, the percentages being low may be partially due to the 8-year commitment for all 1310s.
Also in the brief, there is a slide which shows the control grade URL. Aviation is significantly overmanned with the O-4 billets. All the other communities are undermanned in filling O-4 billets. Does this have anything to do with low select rate for just aviators? Wish I knew the answer.
If anyone wants to skip all the other stuff, about the 14-minute mark is where the last O-4 board is discussed, and the shifting of personnel in the zones.
No matter the justification for the low percentage this year, it was still brutal. Lots of good guys I know had EPs, followed the career path, and still not selected. A few of them only chose their second and third tour based on what was a known path of success. Luckily, for the unfortunate, the legacy airlines have been hiring lately.
You will see a graph which shows the aviation inventory for each year group. There is a change from YG04 to YG05; around 100 less people. Though it is not much, the selection rate for O-4 should be better next year. As mentioned before, the percentages being low may be partially due to the 8-year commitment for all 1310s.
Also in the brief, there is a slide which shows the control grade URL. Aviation is significantly overmanned with the O-4 billets. All the other communities are undermanned in filling O-4 billets. Does this have anything to do with low select rate for just aviators? Wish I knew the answer.
If anyone wants to skip all the other stuff, about the 14-minute mark is where the last O-4 board is discussed, and the shifting of personnel in the zones.
No matter the justification for the low percentage this year, it was still brutal. Lots of good guys I know had EPs, followed the career path, and still not selected. A few of them only chose their second and third tour based on what was a known path of success. Luckily, for the unfortunate, the legacy airlines have been hiring lately.
No no no. People need to read the previous posts on how the promotion boards work. They are supposed to be blind to designators. It shouldn't matter if there were 50 or 5000 aviators in this board. There should still have been about 70% selection. The DH and CO boards are where having too many aviators will yield low board %.
I did read the previous posts, but it is still shocking. The board did select 70% for O-4, unfortunately, it was at the expense of our community.
I can tell you that my detailer says that PERS-43 is looking through every single record, select and non-select, to "figure out what went wrong". Sounds like PERS-8 has caught even the 43 guys off-guard.
In other news, I've seen a few guys post something to the effect that "the percentages may be bad but the numbers are comparable to last year". That's bullshit. Last year 105 IZ 1320's were selected out of 166. This year it was 72 out of 155. That's a huge difference and given the similarity between the two available pools I find the YG issue to be moot for 1320's. If I'm wrong please enlighten me.
In other news, I've seen a few guys post something to the effect that "the percentages may be bad but the numbers are comparable to last year". That's bullshit. Last year 105 IZ 1320's were selected out of 166. This year it was 72 out of 155. That's a huge difference and given the similarity between the two available pools I find the YG issue to be moot for 1320's. If I'm wrong please enlighten me.