COVID-19

[SlickAg]

You answered a different question.

Yeah but that graph is all cause deaths per million vice excess. The point the bad cat is making is that you can infer from the graph that this year’s deaths aren’t out of the normal realm.

The excess death graphs on the page you linked were raw data without being normalized, nor were they using the same scale.

But yeah, Sweden doesn’t appear all that different but everyone singles them out.

Time will tell.

Edit: more fun graphs!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1279558737167081475

 

[Alpha_Echo_606]

And if we quit testing we won't have anymore Covid19 deaths...

 

[exNavyOffRec]

The data actually says Sweden is seeing a big increase in overall deaths.

Florida is too.

Lots of plots here. Or google on “excess death rate 2020” for lots of info.

Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) - Statistics and Research

On this page we provide an overview of excess mortality along with charts to explore the data. You can learn in more depth about different measures of excess mortality, their strengths and limitations, and their comparability across countries in our work with John Muellbauer and Janine Aron.

ourworldindata.org

It looks like from updated date if the take what has happened from Jan 1 to Jun 15 that it will exceed past years. The variable is that deaths in Sweden from COVID have dropped steadily for 2 months, so it will be interesting to see at the end of the year how it looks, not just for Sweden but for the US as well.

 

[exNavyOffRec]

And if we quit testing we won't have anymore Covid19 deaths...

actually........ we keep being told there are more people being infected with COVID in our state, of course we are testing 2-2.5 times the number of people than we were a month ago, and even though the rate of positive cases out of those tested has dropped from 5.7 to 4.8 because we test more we find more people infected and that is a problem, we could solve that problem of finding all these people infected by not testing as many, right?

 

[SlickAg]

Pretty interesting perspective. I believe it’s been fun through a translation program so if you can’t look past that don’t bother.

“Even Anthony Fauci, the most important advisor to the Trump administration noted at the beginning at every public appearance that the danger of the virus lay in the fact that there was no immunity against it. Tony and I often sat next to each other at immunology seminars at the National Institute of Health in Bethesda in the US, because we worked in related fields back then. So for a while I was pretty uncritical of his statements, since he was a respectable colleague of mine. The penny dropped only when I realised that the first commercially available antibody test [for Sars-CoV-2] was put together from an old antibody test that was meant to detect Sars-1.”

“The virus is gone for now. It will probably come back in winter, but it won’t be a second wave, but just a cold. Those young and healthy people who currently walk around with a mask on their faces would be better off wearing a helmet instead, because the risk of something falling on their head is greater than that of getting a serious case of Covid-19.”

Coronavirus: Why everyone was wrong

The immune response to the virus is stronger than everyone thought

medium.com

 

[RedFive]

Coronavirus: Why everyone was wrong

The immune response to the virus is stronger than everyone thought

medium.com

Honestly, I was expecting something fairly inflammatory based on the introduction at the beginning of the article, but it was very reasonable and explained quite a few things. He posits a very reasonable path forward. +1

 

[taxi1]

“The virus is gone for now.”

Maybe in Switzerland.

 

[taxi1]

What happens when you don't social distance. Flash Covid reduces jumping ability.

EDIT: no smart people were harmed in the filming of this incident.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1279897489047343104

 

[Jim123]

That doesn't actually look like Florida. (scratches head in confusion)

 

[Mos]

Honestly, I was expecting something fairly inflammatory based on the introduction at the beginning of the article, but it was very reasonable and explained quite a few things. He posits a very reasonable path forward. +1

Intriguing. I hadn't considered that an immunologist might have such a starkly different view from an epidemiologist, but I don't really know much about medicine. It was written about a month ago before the spikes started. I genuinely want the author to be right, but I wonder how he squares the statement that the pandemic is dying off as summer starts with the increased spread in the last couple of weeks?
Edit: not necessarily spread, but at least increase in reported cases.

 

[SlickAg]

Intriguing. I hadn't considered that an immunologist might have such a starkly different view from an epidemiologist, but I don't really know much about medicine. It was written about a month ago before the spikes started. I genuinely want the author to be right, but I wonder how he squares the statement that the pandemic is dying off as summer starts with the increased spread in the last couple of weeks?

Europe hasn’t been seeing the same spikes that we have in the US. I also don’t think the author is too worried about case count increase; the death rate here, and worldwide, continues to decline. In fact, deaths have declined 92% since our high on April 21st. But the media isn’t REPORTING that data.

Further, if you look at normalized data, this hasn’t been that large of a spike. There’s a post a while back about that, as though we’d been doing 600,000 tests a day here all along. I think the number of people testing positive for the virus would have been here all along, we just didn’t know about them. Any estimates of actual case that approximated what we know now were dismissed as being impossibly high.

If one thinks critically about some of the differences there are some things to consider for the continued spread. For example, the seasonal temperature rise across the southern and southwestern states. Some would attribute this to opening up and because they’re a large number of “Red” states, but then how does one reconcile California? Another example is the widespread protesting that occurred in the month of June. State and city specific sure, but wouldn’t it seem to defy science that those events didn’t perhaps cause massive spread?

Also, the media IS reporting about how terrible things are in some select (Republican) states. Here’s a comparison graph of the deaths per million people. Remember 19 weeks ago when it was “two weeks to flatten the curve”? By that marker Texas, Florida, and Arizona should be commended for spreading out the case load that well and not overwhelming hospitals.

 

[Spekkio]

For example, the seasonal temperature rise across the southern and southwestern states. Some would attribute this to opening up and because they’re a large number of “Red” states, but then how does one reconcile California?

Not sure what you're getting at with CA. The coastal cities (where the vast majority of the state lives) have a relatively flat average monthly temperature profile.

 

[SlickAg]

Not sure what you're getting at with CA. The coastal cities (where the vast majority of the state lives) have a relatively flat average monthly temperature profile.

Yes, but what about the non-coastal agricultural areas and border cities that have had increases?

California is a "blue" state that is also having large "spikes". Just my humble opinion, but it seems that some members of the media are attributing the rise in cases in Florida, Texas, and Arizona due to their Republican governors' opening up policies. California has had mandatory mask rules, closed beaches and restaurants, and yet their numbers still go up. But they're never really mentioned in the same breath as the those other three states.

Perhaps because a blue state with lockdowns still getting increases in number of cases doesn't jive with the narrative?

 

[SlickAg]

Perfect: a combination of “wait two weeks” with the shift to “unknown possible side effects.”

“When laypeople observe those contradictory trends, they might naturally have a follow-up question: If deaths are not increasing along with cases, then why can’t we keep reopening? The lockdowns took an extraordinary toll of their own, after all, in money and mental health and some lives. If we could reopen the economy without the loss of life we saw in April and May, then why shouldn’t we?

I posed that very question to more than a dozen public health experts. All of them cautioned against complacency: This many cases mean many more deaths are probably in our future. And even if deaths don’t increase to the same levels seen in April and May, there are still some very serious possible health consequences if you contract Covid-19.“

Covid-19 cases are rising, but deaths are falling. What’s going on? — Vox

By the time coronavirus deaths start rising again, it’s already too late.

apple.news

 

[SlickAg]

Be patient. We're working on it. Florida and Texas leading the way.

Houston is expecting to exceed intensive care capacity today. They're saying they have <10 days before they reach surge capacity. It's unfortunate that this could have potentially been avoided if this had been taken seriously from the beginning.

I feel like that they're still acknowledging that their normal intensive care capacity is at 100%. Surge capacity is there for now, but there's nothing that can be done today that will reduce the number of cases that will develop over the next 10-12 days when surge capacity is expected to be exceeded.

So it's been two weeks since the above posts. Pictured below is today's snapshot of Houston's early warning monitoring and mitigation metrics. Texas hasn't been overwhelmed and we are nowhere near close to anything that happened in New York in terms of number of deaths.



source: https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/