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commercial pilot shortage coming?

JTW

A Flying Sea-WO
pilot
No reason you "have to" commute.
Like with any job, you can always move to where you work.

True, but I wouldn't relocate to be a regional FO. Webmaster's 5k signing bonus with AE wouldn't even be enough to cover moving expenses. But I guess if you want to be a career regional guy, by all means move to that area. When my 20 are up I want to spend more time at home, not less time for 20k a year. So again, no thanks.
 

PropAddict

Now with even more awesome!
pilot
Contributor
On the topic of moving for airline jobs: buddy of mine (P-3 NFO) just got out after his 6 years were up and he had no flight time except for the commercial ticket he paid for on his own nickel.

Hired by Cathay Pacific a week after submitting his a application online. They even paid to move him to Thailand.

I'm hoping he has a say in hiring there when I'm looking for work in about 13 years. . . :)

(Also, for those curious about pay differences in The Show: I've found this site to be an interesting reference over the years: http://www.aviationinterviews.com/pilot/airlinepayrates.html)
 

Tycho_Brohe

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
(Also, for those curious about pay differences in The Show: I've found this site to be an interesting reference over the years: http://www.aviationinterviews.com/pilot/airlinepayrates.html)
Good news for those getting trained in the P-8, if they're going to the airlines when their obligation is up: it looks like 737 pilots can get to $100/hr in about five years or so in most cases. Or they could take the ACCP, stay in long enough to get retirement benefits, and then make the lateral move. Not a bad place to be.
 

Recovering LSO

Suck Less
pilot
Contributor
For the P-8 gonna-be's out there. How much PIC time should one expect to leave their first sea tour with? Is it going to be similar to a P-3 tour now?
 

scoolbubba

Brett327 gargles ballsacks
pilot
Contributor
For the P-8 gonna-be's out there. How much PIC time should one expect to leave their first sea tour with? Is it going to be similar to a P-3 tour now?

Not a p8 guy, but no. I'm checking out with about 1300TT and 700 pic. They do so much more proficiency training in the sim that its going to be very difficult for a p8 bubba to hit those numbers out of his first tour.
 

Tycho_Brohe

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
They do so much more proficiency training in the sim that its going to be very difficult for a p8 bubba to hit those numbers out of his first tour.
Yeah, that's a good point, I hadn't thought of that. Although with this new regulation coming out, you'd only need 750 hours total time to fly right-seat in the airlines. But it may not necessarily be competitive, depending on the job market at the time. And from what I hear, this isn't the first time people have forewarned a significant pilot shortage, and last time it really didn't amount to anything:
(the relevant part starts at 1:28)

But really, even with loads of sim time in a Level D equivalent, I would think P-8 pilots would still be pretty competitive, especially since they wouldn't have to pay for their 737 type ratings like civilian pilot applicants would.
 

PropAddict

Now with even more awesome!
pilot
Contributor
Not a p8 guy, but no. I'm checking out with about 1300TT and 700 pic. They do so much more proficiency training in the sim that its going to be very difficult for a p8 bubba to hit those numbers out of his first tour.

Jesus. I just hit 1100 pilot hours in the Warpig and I'm nowhere near 700 A time, after spending a year as Pilot NATOPS and 6 months as the only JO IP. Did you fly a shit ton on your PPC deployment or something?
 

MasterBates

Well-Known Member
850 E-2 hours.. 104ish PIC in it.

Not a P3, but a similar upgrade scheme. And I think it's retarded to have to wait for the guy in front of you to make CAPC or fail before you get a shot.
 

scoolbubba

Brett327 gargles ballsacks
pilot
Contributor
Jesus. I just hit 1100 pilot hours in the Warpig and I'm nowhere near 700 A time, after spending a year as Pilot NATOPS and 6 months as the only JO IP. Did you fly a shit ton on your PPC deployment or something?

Flew a lot on deployment, (thank you 5th fleet) as a PPC the entire deployment, made PPC early, and started signing as soon as I could. Also, was on det for about 4 months of the 18 month IDRC and another 2 months since we've been home in June. Flew a lot on all my detachments, too.
 

jollygreen07

Professional (?) Flight Instructor
pilot
Contributor
Not a p8 guy, but no. I'm checking out with about 1300TT and 700 pic. They do so much more proficiency training in the sim that its going to be very difficult for a p8 bubba to hit those numbers out of his first tour.

1300 TT including the VTs? I'm leaving with around 1200/600. In this community it helps to not be an IP as far as PIC time goes. The guys in my group that made IP have only half what I have because when they go on trips it's as an evaluator on a route check and therefore they don't get any PIC time. Then there's the whole not being an IP thing... Myeh..
 

scoober78

(HCDAW)
pilot
Contributor
Yeah, that's a good point, I hadn't thought of that. Although with this new regulation coming out, you'd only need 750 hours total time to fly right-seat in the airlines. But it may not necessarily be competitive, depending on the job market at the time. And from what I hear, this isn't the first time people have forewarned a significant pilot shortage, and last time it really didn't amount to anything:

But really, even with loads of sim time in a Level D equivalent, I would think P-8 pilots would still be pretty competitive, especially since they wouldn't have to pay for their 737 type ratings like civilian pilot applicants would.

I'm sure that some airline guy will chime in here and course correct me if necessary, but there is no way you are going to get hired at a major with 750TT. Ain't gonna happen. Also, did I miss something? Certainly possible, but...the only "new rule" I've heard of is this one....and again, 750 wouldn't even be legal.

Finally, the source of your 737 type rating, is likely not to matter. Whether I went to ATP or Higher Power or just got one as a result of my Navy experience, you either have one or you don't. Sim time is sim time and unless a specific employer wants you to count it, it doesn't count.
 

JD81

FUBIJAR
pilot
I'm sure that some airline guy will chime in here and course correct me if necessary, but there is no way you are going to get hired at a major with 750TT. Ain't gonna happen. Also, did I miss something? Certainly possible, but...the only "new rule" I've heard of is this one....and again, 750 wouldn't even be legal.

I'm an instructor at a regional (goods and bads to this, but I digress). We began hiring around turkey day, I think about 30-40 people have been hired. The only way you are getting looked at at my company is if you have all ATP req's met except for TT, and for TT you need to be about 1350-1400 right now, but when this summer rolls around that goes away and you need all ATP req's met, you get the ATP and type during initial training. I haven't dug to deep on the reg's, but I believe there is a waiver out there for mil type on the flight time, but it ain't much. FWIW, the boys in the head shed want 6-700 pilots this year at my carrier, the pool is so shallow that it's not gonna happen.
 

Tycho_Brohe

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
I'm sure that some airline guy will chime in here and course correct me if necessary, but there is no way you are going to get hired at a major with 750TT.
Right, that's what I meant when I said it may not be competitive. It certainly wouldn't be competitive today. But if this shortage turns out to be as severe as some people believe, competitive mins will probably come down a bit. On top of that, I'd think airlines would also look favorably on prior military applicants because of the other skills they develop during their service.
Also, did I miss something? Certainly possible, but...the only "new rule" I've heard of is this one....and again, 750 wouldn't even be legal.
Actually, yes you did :) Do a search in that page for "750" and it'll say what you need to get an ATP with restricted privileges. The restricted ATP allows you to fly as an FO for the airlines if you are a military pilot with 750 hours.
Finally, the source of your 737 type rating, is likely not to matter. Whether I went to ATP or Higher Power or just got one as a result of my Navy experience, you either have one or you don't. Sim time is sim time and unless a specific employer wants you to count it, it doesn't count.
What I meant is that instead of paying the $7,000-$10,000 that civilians would need to pay to get their 737 type rating, P-8 pilots just need to do a bit of paperwork with the FAA to get the type added to their certificate.
 

HAL Pilot

Well-Known Member
None
Contributor
I'm sure that some airline guy will chime in here and course correct me if necessary, but there is no way you are going to get hired at a major with 750TT. Ain't gonna happen. Also, did I miss something? Certainly possible, but...the only "new rule" I've heard of is this one....and again, 750 wouldn't even be legal.
As far as I know, you are correct. The new reg will be 1500 hours/ATPs for all. Regionals will get the 1500 hour guys while majors will get higher time. I do think military with at least 1500 hours will be treated by the majors as they always have been (i.e. chance to go directly to a major).

THere was talk of 750 for military and 1000 for aviation school grads but as far as I know it hasn't been approved.
 
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