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commercial pilot shortage coming?

CommodoreMid

Whateva! I do what I want!
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Wow, even that seems like a ton. Last time I was in the sim, was a couple months back for a NATOPS check, and before that, it had been months. I've never heard of anyone using sim time towards the 30/60/90 day flight hours tracker. Then again, I was flying 3 times a week (if not twice a day some days) before we ever got to workups. So obviously there are some community differences there

What are yall's mins? 2Ps/3Ps need 45 hours in 90 days and PPCs need 30.
 

MIDNJAC

is clara ship
pilot
What are yall's mins? 2Ps/3Ps need 45 hours in 90 days and PPCs need 30.

Same OPNAV 3710 mins for 6 month and 12 month periods as everyone else. Is the 90 day min thing a community specific number? We do have minimums in terms of flown sorties....at 15 days out of the cockpit, you need an EP warm-up sim or day VMC flight; 30 days out and you need both + IAE. We also have currency requirements for various tactical flights (ie BFM, low alt pops, night roll-in, night strafe, etc), which boil down to having done various things in the previous couple weeks to said event. But no extra pure hours minimums.
 

scoober78

(HCDAW)
pilot
Contributor
Same OPNAV 3710 mins for 6 month and 12 month periods as everyone else. Is the 90 day min thing a community specific number? We do have minimums in terms of flown sorties....at 15 days out of the cockpit, you need an EP warm-up sim or day VMC flight; 30 days out and you need both + IAE. We also have currency requirements for various tactical flights (ie BFM, low alt pops, night roll-in, night strafe, etc), which boil down to having done various things in the previous couple weeks to said event. But no extra pure hours minimums.

Yeah, it's a MPRA specific thing to ensure "proficiency"...whatever that means. There was also a landings requirement/month...6 if you were a co-pilot or pilot under 1000 hours or 3 if you were a pilot with >1000 hours. Usually wasn't a problem for pilots still in the upgrade syllabus, but guys who were qualified aircraft commanders and weren't IP's sometimes would be low on hours.
 

Harrier Dude

Living the dream
I figure the Osprey is every inch a real airplane as the Harrier:)

As far as the FAA goes, they're both "powered lift". Nobody really knows about this from the airline side, so nobody is really saying anything. I've talked it over with some FAA guys and check airmen for a couple of carriers and they don't seem to care yet.

All my Harrier time is listed as ASEL. That's what it was when I flew it, so I didn't see any need to confuse the issue and risk having an airline erase a couple thousand hours of PIC.

I figure when/if the first Osprey guys make it to the airlines, if they do well, all powered lift will be fine. If they fuck it away, we'll all get tossed out with their bath water.
 

jollygreen07

Professional (?) Flight Instructor
pilot
Contributor
At my company, the (right kind of) total time gets you the bare minimum qualifications...read multi-engine PIC (or equivalent as determined by the company). Your application is scored with additional points for NATOPS IP, Evaluator, Standardization Pilot, Safety Officer (school not DH title), kind of flight time (heavy, fighter, astronaut vs other), etc. Reach the minimum desired score and you move to the next pile.

Each and every quality counts for something. While hours matter, it isn't everything.

Copy all. I wasn't discounting the importance of IP time. My "timing" wasn't right to make it here but I'll get plenty of IP time in the VTs.
 

Fallonflyr

Well-Known Member
pilot
As far as the FAA goes, they're both "powered lift". Nobody really knows about this from the airline side, so nobody is really saying anything. I've talked it over with some FAA guys and check airmen for a couple of carriers and they don't seem to care yet.

All my Harrier time is listed as ASEL. That's what it was when I flew it, so I didn't see any need to confuse the issue and risk having an airline erase a couple thousand hours of PIC.

I figure when/if the first Osprey guys make it to the airlines, if they do well, all powered lift will be fine. If they fuck it away, we'll all get tossed out with their bath water.
Tons of AV-8ers in the airlines, never seemed to be an issue.
 

webmaster

The Grass is Greener!
pilot
Site Admin
Contributor
Over the last few months I have run into a bunch of military aviators working on the transition to the show. Some few have been successful including those here on this board. The vast majority are patiently waiting for more than just the application window to open up. There are a lot of moving parts going on in 2013.

United completing its merger with CAL, but still has plenty of furloughs and mil leave ready to jump back aboard. Plus the added uncertainty that as a new hire applicant you now sign on that you accept being junior to everyone for the foreseeable future even if you get a chance to get hired off the street.

FedEx slowed down hiring from 20 to 6 a month. Who's going to win that USPS contract and will shipping pick back up in 2013? Plus as mentioned by harrier, they use deltas hiring program or methodology if you will. Computer score of your info, them passed to a review board of captains. At least at that point it's yours to lose. Too bad they still have plenty waiting in the pool and from the last interview cut. Short term outlook doesn't look promising to us outsiders trying to get a call.

Delta, under capacity, no need for hiring until maybe summer 2013? Guesses abound on the Internet, but the WAGs for off the street hiring keeps shifting right.

SWA. Have they finished their war on AirTran pilots yet?

HAL, probably the best prospects from last year into 2013. Continuing expansion, orders for new aircraft. And growing their fleet. Pilots from 600 to potentially 1000 over the next few years based upon reporting in the press. 90 or so hires last year, more to follow early this year.

My personal thoughts. Consolidation has taken place with all the mergers. Even more with the potential USAir and AA. Airlines are very lean right now and at or just under capacity. Upswing in economy, here or Europe/Asia routes will be a huge benefit to pilot hiring. And any of the 62/63 crowd at any of the majors that decide to retire early and affect hiring numbers. Patiently waiting and keeping current for the opportunity to interview and get hired at the beginning of this next sustained hiring period. Everything I have heard, and talked to HRs or Chief Pilots, military is still very sought after. Meeting and exceeding hiring mins in the multi and PIC categories along with networking is going to get you that interview.

My $0.25 worth.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
 

phrogdriver

More humble than you would understand
pilot
Super Moderator
As far as the FAA goes, they're both "powered lift". Nobody really knows about this from the airline side, so nobody is really saying anything. I've talked it over with some FAA guys and check airmen for a couple of carriers and they don't seem to care yet.

All my Harrier time is listed as ASEL. That's what it was when I flew it, so I didn't see any need to confuse the issue and risk having an airline erase a couple thousand hours of PIC.

I figure when/if the first Osprey guys make it to the airlines, if they do well, all powered lift will be fine. If they fuck it away, we'll all get tossed out with their bath water.

Yeah, but I think a Harrier is undeniably an airplane if someone asks. Your only problem is that it's not multi. My problem is convincing them it counts as an airplane. I don't think ex-Harrier fortunes are tied to Ospreys any more than the other way around.

You just have an aversion to being associated with rotor trash, don't you?
 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
AA has finally started to recall furloughed pilots and that appears to be the plan for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, there are nearly 600 of them. Many of those guys will not come back. So far we are talking 20-30 a month recalled. Average age at AA is 52 or so. Some guys are certainly staying past 60, many are not. Some are just waiting for the bankruptcy to play out and make sure they don't miss something on the distributions coming from frozen pensions and equity stake in the new company. Once they are past that you will probably see some more retirements. In spite of the bankruptcy and lower than industry pay rates for some years, the retirement program at AA was generally better than other airlines. Most guys can afford to retire closer to 60 than not. WRT a US Airways merger, that may play out for wannabes as well. The old USAIR (east guys) pilots are older as a group than AA. They have fought the seniority integration with the former AmericaWest guys since the merger and continue to operate as two separate groups with different pay and work rules, even tho the same union. So even tho the East guys get paid less, they have kept their seniority in their own little world. No Captains were displaced in the merger and their bid position hasn't changed. BUT, if there is merger AA's union APA will be the surviving union and AA pilots the majority by a long shot. Seniority integration is now governed by legislation that will ensure an integration looking more like AA/TWA and the arbitrated AWA/USAir than strict date of hire that US Airways went to the mat over. That will mean that lots of East guys will have forced on them what they have been fighting for years. The integration will undoubtedly mean some loss of left seats and back sliding to smaller planes. Word on the street is those guys will retire in droves once they feel the affect of a merged seniority list between AA, West (former AWA), and East. Moreover, AA has 600 planes on order. Their entire fleet is around 600 and plenty of them are new planes already. You won't see a one for one exchange. Many of those 600 new aircraft orders will be growth. Confused? Doesn't matter, it is all conjecture. ;)
 

Recovering LSO

Suck Less
pilot
Contributor
I've never heard of anyone using sim time towards the 30/60/90 day flight hours tracker. Then again, I was flying 3 times a week (if not twice a day some days) before we ever got to workups.

Have you heard of this pesky little idea of sequestration? For the sake of your log books, you'd either be deep into work ups or deployed.
 

HAL Pilot

Well-Known Member
None
Contributor
....That will mean that lots of East guys will have forced on them what they have been fighting for years. The integration will undoubtedly mean some loss of left seats and back sliding to smaller planes. Word on the street is those guys will retire in droves once they feel the affect of a merged seniority list between AA, West (former AWA), and East.
The East guys have no integrity and USAPA (their union) is the biggest joke. They've been fucking over West guys for years. I hope APA does as you predicted Wink.

Moreover, AA has 600 planes on order. Their entire fleet is around 600 and plenty of them are new planes already. You won't see a one for one exchange. Many of those 600 new aircraft orders will be growth. Confused? Doesn't matter, it is all conjecture. ;)
Good luck. You guys put up the good fight and deserve a break.

Websan said:
HAL, probably the best prospects from last year into 2013. Continuing expansion, orders for new aircraft. And growing their fleet. Pilots from 600 to potentially 1000 over the next few years based upon reporting in the press. 90 or so hires last year, more to follow early this year.
We are at about 650 pilts and 42 aircraft right now. The plan is for 1000+ pilots and 72 to 77 aircraft by 2020.
 

scoober78

(HCDAW)
pilot
Contributor
AA has finally started to recall furloughed pilots and that appears to be the plan for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, there are nearly 600 of them. Many of those guys will not come back. So far we are talking 20-30 a month recalled. Average age at AA is 52 or so. Some guys are certainly staying past 60, many are not. Some are just waiting for the bankruptcy to play out and make sure they don't miss something on the distributions coming from frozen pensions and equity stake in the new company. Once they are past that you will probably see some more retirements. In spite of the bankruptcy and lower than industry pay rates for some years, the retirement program at AA was generally better than other airlines. Most guys can afford to retire closer to 60 than not. WRT a US Airways merger, that may play out for wannabes as well. The old USAIR (east guys) pilots are older as a group than AA. They have fought the seniority integration with the former AmericaWest guys since the merger and continue to operate as two separate groups with different pay and work rules, even tho the same union. So even tho the East guys get paid less, they have kept their seniority in their own little world. No Captains were displaced in the merger and their bid position hasn't changed. BUT, if there is merger AA's union APA will be the surviving union and AA pilots the majority by a long shot. Seniority integration is now governed by legislation that will ensure an integration looking more like AA/TWA and the arbitrated AWA/USAir than strict date of hire that US Airways went to the mat over. That will mean that lots of East guys will have forced on them what they have been fighting for years. The integration will undoubtedly mean some loss of left seats and back sliding to smaller planes. Word on the street is those guys will retire in droves once they feel the affect of a merged seniority list between AA, West (former AWA), and East. Moreover, AA has 600 planes on order. Their entire fleet is around 600 and plenty of them are new planes already. You won't see a one for one exchange. Many of those 600 new aircraft orders will be growth. Confused? Doesn't matter, it is all conjecture. ;)

I'll admit that I have a bit of an outside looking in perspective and level of knowledge right up front about the inner workings of pilot's unions...but...Reading this post reminded me of something I've thought was pretty interesting for a while.

Does it amuse anyone else that probably the most consistently conservative leaning portion of our society...current and former military members...represent nearly 70% of the airline pilots in the nation...and are members of one of the most unionized industries in the country...I mean, short of building cars or teaching....

Odd no?
 

HAL Pilot

Well-Known Member
None
Contributor
I'll admit that I have a bit of an outside looking in perspective and level of knowledge right up front about the inner workings of pilot's unions...but...Reading this post reminded me of something I've thought was pretty interesting for a while.

Does it amuse anyone else that probably the most consistently conservative leaning portion of our society...current and former military members...represent nearly 70% of the airline pilots in the nation...and are members of one of the most unionized industries in the country...I mean, short of building cars or teaching....

Odd no?
It used to surprise me, until I got to an airline. I then quickly found out how important a union is not only for the pilot, but for the safety of the pax. It wasn't the FAA that came up with most of the safety rules, it was the unions who then pressured the FAA to adopt them. Safety is one of the main reasons ALPA was originally formed.

Pilot unions are also different than traditional labor unions. In ALPA for example, each individually airline has it's own unit where the national side is just mostly a resource provider and adviser. National has a final veto authority but it is mostly just used as a tool to ensure minimum standards.

Airlines come under the Railroad Labor Act and the RLA stacks the deck against employees and vastly favors management in all situations. The union is the only thing that keeps management from ass raping pilots as well as safety.

The majority die hard anti-union conservatives that become airline pilots quickly change their tune within a few months. It's a great job with great pay and an awesome lifestyle, but with the typical airline management it is the union which keeps it that way.
 

scoober78

(HCDAW)
pilot
Contributor
It used to surprise me, until I got to an airline. I then quickly found out how important a union is not only for the pilot, but for the safety of the pax. It wasn't the FAA that came up with most of the safety rules, it was the unions who then pressured the FAA to adopt them. Safety is one of the main reasons ALPA was originally formed.

Copy. Definitely not saying there isn't a need or reason for them to exist...quite the opposite...I'm not opposed to collective bargaining at all in principle.
 
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