commercial pilot shortage coming?

[Recovering LSO]

http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/story/2011/06/Demand-for-airline-pilots-set-to-soar/48661596/1


I'm sure many of you saw this article on the cover of McNews (eh hem, USA Today) yesterday. Not sure if its just a large print ad for ERAU or if there is any validity to it. Somehow I doubt there is ever going to be more jobs than pilots looking for them.?.

Comm Air guys - thoughts?

 

[SWACQ]

I'm not buying into it. 4 years ago when I was looking at getting out and looking around at places like airlinepilotcentral.com there was a lot of hype about a pending pilot shortage. Then they passed the law extending mandatory retirements to 65 (was 60). Supposedly now that we are coming up on 5 years, all those guys who were going to retire are now on the hook to do just that, opening up slots for new hires. However, when you hear stories of Southwest hiring 300 people from something like 8,000 applications, I don't think 50 guys retiring per month from any given airline is really going to affect anything. Nor do I see the it having enough of an impact to allow the unions to force a re-negotiation on wages to make the industry more attractive to qualified pilots avoiding it because of the pay. I'm not a commerical guy, but that's my opinion based on what I saw when I considered it as an option. So its probably not worth anything.

 

[statesman]

I had posted this article in another thread...

FlyBoyd chimed in and said he didnt buy into it either.

 

[Pugs]

I don't think 50 guys retiring per month from any given airline is really going to affect anything. .

Chatting with a buddy in the biz he says the biggest affect in the coming half decade is the mass retirement of Captains that will mean not only a quick movement to the left seat but also a movement to a more senior platform for folks like him that have held himself to be a more senior guy in a junior platform to keep a good schedule. Maybe that means more new hires or maybe it just means more flying and smarter scheduling for those already in.

9/11 sent him from a standby junior guy in the right seat of 747-400 to right seat of the A320 and a >65% pay cut and he's just now getting it back

 

[burner7]

I wish the airline industry the best; but I don't buy it either. When I flew regionals in 2000, the salaries were low, and I went back to mil as an O4 when I could; but that was my choice.

 

[scoolbubba]

9/11 sent him from a standby junior guy in the right seat of 747-400 to right seat of the A320 and a >65% pay cut and he's just now getting it back

Funny how it takes a half decade for profits to trickle down to the guys flying the birds just to get back to the status quo.

 

[HAL Pilot]

On August 1st, the FAA is supposed to publish new flight time/duty time rules that are expected to result in most airlines having to increase pilot staffing - hiring at majors and regionals.

In the next 12 to 18 months pilot retirements should increase as the guys who didn't retire at age 60 will be hitting the new age 65 ceiling - hiring at majors.

Some regionals are dropping their minimums toward 500 total time/100 ME to get pilots.

Even without the above, most majors will be hiring anyway as all expectations are toward capacity increases, especially internationally. Delta has been slowly hiring. FedEx is starting to hire. SWA is starting to hire. AA? is recalling it's furloughed guys (slowly) and flowing up Eagle pilots who were granted AA seniority numbers in the past. Hawaiian is hiring. US Airways is beginning to hire. United/Continental are both recalling furloughed pilots. Cathy Pacific, Emirates and Etihad are well paying oversees airlines that are hiring significantly.

SO while it wouldn't be the made hiring boom of the late 19902/early 2000, major hiring is definitely increasing significantly.

 

[HAL Pilot]

I wish the airline industry the best; but I don't buy it either. When I flew regionals in 2000, the salaries were low, and I went back to mil as an O4 when I could; but that was my choice.

The regionals are the minor leagues and pay as such. Too many ERAU grads with minimal hours that would fly for free if it would get them in a RJ. They are just a place to build enough time to get to a major. Anyone who says they are a career job is full of shit/someone who couldn't get hired at a major for some reason or other.

 

[81montedriver]

Some regionals are dropping their minimums toward 500 total time/100 ME to get pilots.

.

They have to be out of their minds. I'm guessing by the time an applicant applies to one of these particular regionals, they have somewhere around that time flying as a CFI/CFII in a C172. I'm already hesitant flying on those things!

At 500 hours you can be considered a competent pilot, but comparably, you are still not very experienced. Not mention you will be flying a multi-engine jet or turboprop carrying 35-50 pax. I think it's an awful move and the minimums need to remain where they are for plenty of reasons.

 

[FlyBoyd]

I had posted this article in another thread...

FlyBoyd chimed in and said he didnt buy into it either.

Here is what I said...

Read the comments...

I give no weight to this article. You have to pay for the Flight Ops website. ERAU has always preached a pilot shortage is coming to increase their enrollment and Boeing wants people to buy planes. Of course those companies will say there is an upcoming shortage. The article is nothing but an advertisement.

Hal brings up good points too and I hope they are true because it directly affects me.

 

[FrankTheTank]

Here is what I said...

Read the comments...

I give no weight to this article. You have to pay for the Flight Ops website. ERAU has always preached a pilot shortage is coming to increase their enrollment and Boeing wants people to buy planes. Of course those companies will say there is an upcoming shortage. The article is nothing but an advertisement.

Hal brings up good points too and I hope they are true because it directly affects me.

I can only comment on the FEDEX hiring. The number of new hires is around 100 + or - 25. No end in sight; if anything, the numbers will pick up rapidly. In the short term, the fast track is a new hire position into Anchorage, Hong Kong, and Cologne Germany. Sounds like the panel is filled for now so I would expect mostly window seats with a few Engineers trickled in as vacancies require. Good Luck guys! Good timing if you can get on board! Also they a currently not taking new applications and nobody is sure when they will open the window for new ones.

 

[Recovering LSO]

Some regionals are dropping their minimums toward 500 total time/100 ME to get pilots.

ugh. its really going to take a series of costly (lives and $$$) incidents before this practice gets the scrutiny it deserves.

 

[FrankTheTank]

From the FEDEX Website:

Fedex anticipates opening the site for new profiles on 1 August, 2011 for 45 days.

If you got your stuff done, get a application on file. You can't get hired if you don't apply. Also you never know when they are gonna close the app window. You can always/continue to update as long as you have a profile, for what it's worth.

The link ---> https://fedex.pilotcredentials.com/
Frank

 

[webmaster]

From the FEDEX Website:

If you got your stuff done, get a application on file. You can't get hired if you don't apply. Also you never know when they are gonna close the app window. You can always/continue to update as long as you have a profile, for what it's worth.

The link ---> https://fedex.pilotcredentials.com/
Frank

Thanks! From reading other forums, I understand that you most definitely do not want to make any mistakes on your application that would constitute any potential for FEDEX doubting your integrity or providing misleading information. Read that some people just checked they had the FEX completed, when they didn't, and the other forum was mentioning that HR sent out requests for emailed copies of the FEX test results to compare dates. So, I guess make sure you have all your required items done and only check the boxes on their application that you can claim to have completed.

Is the big push for KC10 pilots complete, are they hiring other groups now? Still need a sponsor and recommendation to get a shot?

 

[FrankTheTank]

I guess when they went to the new application system, it asks for the date of the FEX and folks were just making it up. The old way you could leave stuff blank until it was done. The new requires all requirements to be met.

The latest word is they are trying to fill ANC Md-11, HKG A-300 and CGN B-757. Supposedly not gonna hire for Mem until the end of the year, once those are filled. I have a bud (RJ civilian type) that was just hired and asked to go to CGN but told he was not even considered when he asked about ANC. I know a Navy (Meridian- hornet I think [aren't they all these days?]) dude called and asked about CGN without even interviewing. He said he would go and was then offered an interview.

Sponsor and rec not required but I would find it hard to imagine getting a call without them. Also being military, they assume you should have lots of friends flying for us. So unless you are a douchenozzle, I can't imagine a mil guy not being able to get a few. Sponsor may be more difficult but recs should be a breeze.

My 2 cents. Which the fed makes worth less every day!