It is true there are a lot of retirements coming up. There are also guys still on furlough, plus the regional guys that may have numbers at the main line. They all get first shot at many of those jobs. Then there is the fact that the industry is simply a lot smaller then it once was and the US is a mature market with little new growth expected. Most jobs will come from retirements and those are completely predictable and easily planned for. The explosive growth will come from overseas, and the vast majority of that foreign carriers. Even the big main lines like Delta and AA do a relatively small percentage of their flying international, so growth in pilot numbers to cover increases in international flying will be correspondingly small. The real opportunities are in flying as an ex pat in developing markets and third world nations. Even now, my brother in law, USAIR retired, has had no shortage of overseas job offers. He is just coming off nearly two years flying for an Afghan airline and is now on his way to Bangladesh. Those kinds of jobs can be real sweet. Think Emirates, Cathay, ANA. Many are not. But they all likely require living an overseas ex pat lifestyle, schooling children in a foreign country, limit spuse employment opportunites, and little or no chance of spending 20 years and retiring from the same carrier. Many do not allow commuting. If you can, you are looking at hellish commutes and absences of two weeks or more at a time. You fly on a one or two year contract with no guarantee of renewal. Work rules can be very different than at a US carrier and not likely better. So yes, there is a coming explosion of pilot jobs. But most are for foreign carriers that require a major change in lifestyle and limited long term security.
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