Jocko podcast #296 speaks to some of this in great detail - fascinating listen.
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Leaving Vietnam vs AFG
- Thread starter jmcquate
- Start date
Shocked that the NYT is blaming Orange Man . . . . . got it. I'm waiting for the NYT editorial about how the current guy in the seat completely fucked away the withdrawal . You know, leadership & responsibility and all that command stuff . . . .From Afghan General, interesting article...
Opinion | I Commanded Afghan Troops This Year. We Were Betrayed.
It pains me to see President Biden and other Western officials blame the Afghan Army for collapsing but not mention why that happened.www.nytimes.com
So why did the Afghan military collapse? The answer is threefold.
First, former President Donald Trump’s February 2020 peace deal with the Taliban in Doha doomed us. It put an expiration date on American interest in the region. Second, we lost contractor logistics and maintenance support critical to our combat operations. Third, the corruption endemic in Mr. Ghani’s government that flowed to senior military leadership and long crippled our forces on the ground irreparably hobbled us.
He's an Afghan General.
Yeah, I read the article. Just another attempt by NYT to deflect away from the current administration.
Why don't the DOD and DOS know this number? They've certainly asked the admin for more time, so your point that no one knows if we can get everyone out would, based on circumstantial evidence, be incorrect. Seems like the people at the top know we can't get everyone out and the administration said fuck em because the date was more important than the mission.
While I'd hope DOD and DOS would be able to account for all of the Americans supporting their missions is there anyway for them to know about all the "other" Americans who might be in AFG? I'm specifically thinking NGO types and random civilian "adventurers" and not secret squirrel types. If I traveled to AFG on my own dime and at my own risk to build schools or backpack, would I be on the list to be evacuated?
We'll circle back to that on august 32nd.
ABMD
Bullets don't fly without Supply
Dude, careful or you'll get the standard boilerplate response from the resident expert on all things... "You’re also not paying attention to what we’re discussing."
Pretty sure it was the last admin that negotiated directly with the Taliban, cutting the AFG out of the loop. That still boggles the mind that we would do that.
The die was cast with that move. Biden was no doubt on board with it, but the general is giving credit where credit is due.
Dude, if you’d like to interject upon a discussion that Wink and I are having, at least get an idea of what the argument is before you do so.… dude.
Pags, you can't go anywhere in this post 9/11 world without DHS/CBP knowing where you are. The myriad ways we are tracked and documented utilizing all the technology the USG has at its disposal is impressive. This idea that DoD/DoS/DHS doesn't have a "means" to know who is in-country, especially in a place like Afghanistan is laughable. Come on man !! ?
Is everyone actively tracked or can the tracking be done after the fact based on ticketing, passport scans, etc? I personally have no clue if when I flew to Europe or Hong Kong I was actively tracked or not. Beyond telling my employer (the USG) where I was going, buying a ticket, and doing normal custom things I didn't do anything beyond that. Could the greater USG have found me if they wanted to based on possible emissions and travel plans? Sure, but it's not like I was trying to hide anything.
What does that situation look like for a backpacker who walks across a border or a mining surveyor who is sent there by a private company via a charter flight? What about a US citizen working for a foreign NGO like Doctors Without Borders? I personally have no idea if these folks are on the hook for an evacuation or if the evac is only for folks there on formal USG tasking.
GroundPounder
Well-Known Member
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Cell and satellite phone data is available for most people, the data is easy to get in the right circumstances. If, in towns, they still do any credit /debit cards that is also quickly available if the circumstances warrant. There are other ways to track people available, but those are the most well known. My perspective is from LE, I am sure the secret squirrels have capabilities that outpace ours.
However, if someone was misguided enough to go out in the hinterlands of Afghanistan it may be easy to fall off the grid. I am sure there will be people that we know are over there, that will not be recoverable, and will never been seen or heard from again.
Cell and satellite phone data is available for most people, the data is easy to get in the right circumstances. If, in towns, they still do any credit /debit cards that is also quickly available if the circumstances warrant. There are other ways to track people available, but those are the most well known. My perspective is from LE, I am sure the secret squirrels have capabilities that outpace ours.
However, if someone was misguided enough to go out in the hinterlands of Afghanistan it may be easy to fall off the grid. I am sure there will be people that we know are over there, that will not be recoverable, and will never been seen or heard from again.
I think your "backpacker who walks across a border or a mining surveyor" example is more than possible, but I expect the numbers of those to be very, very small. DHS/DoD/DoS has the means to ascertain the location of most AMCITS on international travel. Internet access and cell phone usage makes that job a LOT easier. Ask any LEO how a growing number of crimes are expeditiously solved now using cell phone data . . . .
Ok, I don't disagree with anything that you and @GroundPounder said but, in my head at least, that's still after the fact stuff. If someone says, "find me Steve Smith" we could figure out his cell phone ids, his credit card info, passport #, and probably pretty quickly find him in the western world provided that he's not trying to stay hidden. If he's just a guy on vacation in Paris who maybe disappeared we could probably find a trail via those methods. But can those methods be used the other way to identify folks needing evac? I'm sure you could see the traffic and make some guesses but how often are people using their AMEX in AFG? What if they have a local burner phone as opposed to the one on their Verizon account? Im sure actual answers to this quickly end up in BEADWINDOW territory and I'm not trying to go that way.
Are we trying to recover backpackers, NGOs, private company folks who happen to be US citizens or just USG folks? Individual citizens sometimes go places that you or I likely wouldn't go...like the guy my wife went to college with who ended up locked up in North Korea or folks who get locked up in Iran, Mexico, etc.