NEWS Waterfront property in the Spratlys? Good investment or not?

[Griz882]

Sure… unless and until they’re imprisoned by the regime. Then they’ll do whatever it takes to survive and see their family again.

I think you are missing my point. This isn’t about money, it is about a quality of life and a measure of freedom, no matter how artificial, that simply can not be pushed back into the bag. There are, no kidding, billions of new middle class people in China and they aren’t giving up what they have for the sake of a “party” that has almost no meaning in their lives. Xi has tons of power, total control or the military, and a strong hand on business…but to keep that he has to allow his new middle class to be who they are and ultimately he won’t stand for that. Therein is his problem.

 

[Hair Warrior]

I think you are missing my point. This isn’t about money, it is about a quality of life and a measure of freedom, no matter how artificial, that simply can not be pushed back into the bag. There are, no kidding, billions of new middle class people in China and they aren’t giving up what they have for the sake of a “party” that has almost no meaning in their lives. Xi has tons of power, total control or the military, and a strong hand on business…but to keep that he has to allow his new middle class to be who they are and ultimately he won’t stand for that. Therein is his problem.

Yeah, I guess we are missing each other’s points, but not for lack of trying.

When you say “giving up what they have” I agree with you that they don’t want to willingly give it up for the sake of the CCP, but I disagree that they “have” what they think they have. It’s so fleeting that it’s not even real. I think no matter how rich they get, unless they truly get their money and family completely out of China, then China will be able to reach into their lives and into their wallets and destroy their wealth and freedom at a moment’s notice. In no other country in the history of the planet can someone go so quickly from billionaire to imprisoned pauper at a couple keystrokes and a pair of handcuffs. They literally can disappear people - and soon, will be able to disappear financial accounts with the digital yuan.

 

[Griz882]

Yeah, I guess we are missing each other’s points, but not for lack of trying.

When you say “giving up what they have” I agree with you that they don’t want to willingly give it up for the sake of the CCP, but I disagree that they “have” what they think they have. It’s so fleeting that it’s not even real. I think no matter how rich they get, unless they truly get their money and family completely out of China, then China will be able to reach into their lives and into their wallets and destroy their wealth and freedom at a moment’s notice. In no other country in the history of the planet can someone go so quickly from billionaire to imprisoned pauper at a couple keystrokes and a pair of handcuffs. They literally can disappear people - and soon, will be able to disappear financial accounts with the digital yuan.

The only imgredient a revolution needs is "feeling" among the middle/merchant class that the power is taking something, no matter how nebuleous or fleeting, you want in your life.

 

[Pags]

The only imgredient a revolution needs is "feeling" among the middle/merchant class that the power is taking something, no matter how nebuleous or fleeting, you want in your life.

A tax on tea?

 

[Hair Warrior]

The only imgredient a revolution needs is "feeling" among the middle/merchant class that the power is taking something, no matter how nebuleous or fleeting, you want in your life.

Well, their every email is probably monitored, they can’t own firearms, and their whole family will die if they join any revolt, so I’m not sure how a revolution would even start. We’d be lucky if China never takes Taiwan, let alone mainland China becoming more like Taiwan.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Interesting article from Foreign Policy that turns the “Thucydides Trap” on its head.

China Is a Declining Power—and That’s the Problem

The United States needs to prepare for a major war, not because its rival is rising but because of the opposite.

foreignpolicy.com

China Is a Declining Power—and That’s the Problem
The United States needs to prepare for a major war, not because its rival is rising but because of the opposite.


China is also approaching a demographic precipice: From 2020 to 2050, it will lose an astounding 200 million working-age adults—a population the size of Nigeria—and gain 200 million senior citizens. The fiscal and economic consequences will be devastating: Current projections suggest China’s medical and social security spending will have to triple as a share of GDP, from 10 percent to 30 percent, by 2050 just to prevent millions of seniors from dying of impoverishment and neglect.

 

[Hair Warrior]

Interesting article from Foreign Policy that turns the “Thucydides Trap” on its head.

China Is a Declining Power—and That’s the Problem

The United States needs to prepare for a major war, not because its rival is rising but because of the opposite.

foreignpolicy.com

China Is a Declining Power—and That’s the Problem
The United States needs to prepare for a major war, not because its rival is rising but because of the opposite.


China is also approaching a demographic precipice: From 2020 to 2050, it will lose an astounding 200 million working-age adults—a population the size of Nigeria—and gain 200 million senior citizens. The fiscal and economic consequences will be devastating: Current projections suggest China’s medical and social security spending will have to triple as a share of GDP, from 10 percent to 30 percent, by 2050 just to prevent millions of seniors from dying of impoverishment and neglect.

Interesting premise, but:

1. I don’t doubt the Chinese regime would let Chinese seniors just keep working or die in place rather than provide them long term, expensive care. China has a history of allowing their population to die off in massive numbers, and then later put those dead on a pedestal as some sort of nonreligious marytrs for Mao’s cause (“Great Leap Forward” etc.) China can always move the goalposts on their own people, such as reducing benefits or raising the retirement age, and can crush any dissent pretty easily and/or make these changes gradually so as to avert major uproar.
2. China can probably reverse the trend quickly enough with forced or encouraged promiscuity. If they want an expansionist war in 2050, they’ve got about ~14 years to go make babies at a faster rate than today. Babies born now would form the officer and NCO corps. Babies born as late as 2035 could become junior enlisted in a 2050 war, if the youth in WW2 are an example.

 

[Griz882]

Interesting premise, but:

1. I don’t doubt the Chinese regime would let Chinese seniors just keep working or die in place rather than provide them long term, expensive care. China has a history of allowing their population to die off in massive numbers, and then later put those dead on a pedestal as some sort of nonreligious marytrs for Mao’s cause (“Great Leap Forward” etc.) China can always move the goalposts on their own people, such as reducing benefits or raising the retirement age, and can crush any dissent pretty easily and/or make these changes gradually so as to avert major uproar.
2. China can probably reverse the trend quickly enough with forced or encouraged promiscuity. If they want an expansionist war in 2050, they’ve got about ~14 years to go make babies at a faster rate than today. Babies born now would form the officer and NCO corps. Babies born as late as 2035 could become junior enlisted in a 2050 war, if the youth in WW2 are an example.

Things have changed. That China no longer exists. That China no longer has total control over their public narrative. Social media, global communications, and the desires of their new middle class to stay middle class have made the moves of the past impossible. It is true that most Chinese people have never heard of Tiananmen Square and probably don’t about the slave treatment of people in their far western provinces, but they all know their bank account balance. That China was just given a gut punch by the Evergrande failure and that failure is going to ripple through the system and maybe even elevate India beyond them in the global economy. It has never been an issue of China making more NCOs, it has always been an issue of the Maoist system surviving in a modern, connected, global economy. Put simply, China is changing and not in the direction Xi wants

 

[Hair Warrior]

Things have changed. That China no longer exists. That China no longer has total control over their public narrative. Social media, global communications, and the desires of their new middle class to stay middle class have made the moves of the past impossible. It is true that most Chinese people have never heard of Tiananmen Square and probably don’t about the slave treatment of people in their far western provinces, but they all know their bank account balance. That China was just given a gut punch by the Evergrande failure and that failure is going to ripple through the system and maybe even elevate India beyond them in the global economy. It has never been an issue of China making more NCOs, it has always been an issue of the Maoist system surviving in a modern, connected, global economy. Put simply, China is changing and not in the direction Xi wants

I’d love that. I’m usually a pessimist, and mindful of the most dangerous ECOA.

China is successfully repressing a million Muslims in Xinjiang. China successfully convinces Apple and Google to remove certain apps from their iOS/ Android app stores in China. China has strong armed (or deliberately established) companies around the world to do China’s bidding in the information domain, e.g. Tencent, Huawei, ZTE. China has successfully stalled any real outcry or repercussions around COVID origins. I think conditions are ripe for China’s regime to control whatever narrative they want for their own populace, while using a combination of coercion and incentives to get the majority of the world (e.g. African countries relying in Chinese investments) to not care.

 

[Griz882]

I’d love that. I’m usually a pessimist, and mindful of the most dangerous ECOA.

China is successfully repressing a million Muslims in Xinjiang. China successfully convinces Apple and Google to remove certain apps from their iOS/ Android app stores in China. China has strong armed (or deliberately established) companies around the world to do China’s bidding in the information domain, e.g. Tencent, Huawei, ZTE. China has successfully stalled any real outcry or repercussions around COVID origins. I think conditions are ripe for China’s regime to control whatever narrative they want for their own populace, while using a combination of coercion and incentives to get the majority of the world (e.g. African countries relying in Chinese investments) to not care.

As with many China watchers, you give…in my humble opinion…too much credit to the power of government and not enough to the desires of the population. Mao is dead. The economy is global. India is the “new” China and even the information domain will shift away when as the signs of economic troubles begin.

 

[Hair Warrior]

As with many China watchers, you give…in my humble opinion…too much credit to the power of government and not enough to the desires of the population. Mao is dead. The economy is global. India is the “new” China and even the information domain will shift away when as the signs of economic troubles begin.

Well, I hope you are 100% right. If we can deter China from continued expansionism, that’s great. If we can’t, I hope the world has the willpower and capability to defeat them and remold the nation into a better steward of human rights and fair economic practices.

 

[Gatordev]

If we can deter China from continued expansionism, that’s great.

But how would that happen? A rhetorical question, not specifically directed at you, HW. Belt and Road has a lot of steam already and I don't get the impression, at least from the press, that the U.S. is self-aware enough to care about Africa yet and it seems like it will be too late before it does. To me, albeit from a pretty uneducated perspective, it seems like the best that could happen is to slow down China, but expansion will still happen at some rate that's notable.

 

[Randy Daytona]

But how would that happen? A rhetorical question, not specifically directed at you, HW. Belt and Road has a lot of steam already and I don't get the impression, at least from the press, that the U.S. is self-aware enough to care about Africa yet and it seems like it will be too late before it does. To me, albeit from a pretty uneducated perspective, it seems like the best that could happen is to slow down China, but expansion will still happen at some rate that's notable.

I would add that the rate of expansion will be affected by whether Europe supports the US in a cold war vs China or, with their economies so dependent on exports to China (particularly Germany, France and Italy) that they become a non-aligned block - especially with the left leaning SPD the heir apparent to Merkel after Sunday’s election in Germany.

Good discussion from “The Goodfellows” at The Hoover Institution.

 

[Flash]

China can probably reverse the trend quickly enough with forced or encouraged promiscuity. If they want an expansionist war in 2050, they’ve got about ~14 years to go make babies at a faster rate than today. Babies born now would form the officer and NCO corps. Babies born as late as 2035 could become junior enlisted in a 2050 war, if the youth in WW2 are an example.

What modern country has been able to dramatically reversed a declining birthrate?

Even though the Chinese government/party has tried to make some 'reforms' and other changes to increase the birthrate there remains very powerful deterrents to the declining birthrate that will take significant structural changes to Chinese life that the government is unlikely to be able to 'fix', or even willing to try, any time soon.

 

[Flash]

Well, I hope you are 100% right. If we can deter China from continued expansionism, that’s great. If we can’t, I hope the world has the willpower and capability to defeat them and remold the nation into a better steward of human rights and fair economic practices.

What kind of expansionism? Economic? Territorial?

But how would that happen? A rhetorical question, not specifically directed at you, HW. Belt and Road has a lot of steam already and I don't get the impression, at least from the press, that the U.S. is self-aware enough to care about Africa yet and it seems like it will be too late before it does. To me, albeit from a pretty uneducated perspective, it seems like the best that could happen is to slow down China, but expansion will still happen at some rate that's notable.

The Belt and Road has grabbed a lot of low hanging fruit that would have cost us more than it was worth to compete with in many cases, from Cambodia to Pakistan and the OAS. I think remaining a more trusted partner is the path we should remain on, as China has more often than not proved itself to be its own worst enemy in the end.