TWO ITEMS .... MMA in Mugu and carrier in Hawaii ???

[zab1001]

I'm sure whatever the original number was, it will be less than that. Playing the highball game works when you know money is tight anyway. SOMETHING is going to replace the Orion.

There's never been an intention for a plane for plane swap anyway, the difference in the airframes is huge and will be a force multiplier.

As far as "future 737 IPs"...maybe the first few waves for NATOPS quals. Then it'll go in-house. It'll be tough to have an MPRA FRS in a landlocked state.

 

[A4sForever]

I gotta ask, hopefully someone is in the know around the P-3 community: Is the MMA really going to happen? .....?

Take this for what it's worth .... my brother-in-law (who is a good guy, BTW) has been assigned by Boeing as a "local" rep for the MMA "when" --- not "if" ---- it goes to Whidbey.

That's Boeing talking .... the question is: what is reality ???? It changes ....

 

[Flash]

I gotta ask, hopefully someone is in the know around the P-3 community: Is the MMA really going to happen? Word floating around your future 737 IPs here in TACAMO :icon_tong is that this program is 50/50 on happening due to budget cuts expected over the next few years, and even if it does happen you're looking at tops 50 frames for tops 4 squadrons and the FRS (something like 11 planes per squadron and 6 for the FRS, not sure on the exact details). Any insights?

The Quadrennial Defense Review should be coming out relatively soon "the 2005 QDR, scheduled to be completed by February 2006" , that will be a big factor in a lot of long-term aquisition decisions. If the QDR says the Navy needs to concentrate more on ASW, then look for us to buy the MMA. If not, we might be flying P-3's for a very long time........

Here is an op-ed peice about it: http://www.washtimes.com/op-ed/20050323-091220-4090r.htm

BTW, look for the Air Force to sell its soul for the F/A/R/B/K/E-22 no matter what the QDR says

 

[Jaxs170]

So, if the QDR says ASW is a low priority and therefore no MMA, how much longer can the P-3 last airframe wise? I know the B-52 was built to last forever, but I'm not thinking the P-3 was. At what point do they have to say 'nuffs enough, ground 'em, for safety purposes?

 

[zab1001]

After the first catastrophic incident.

 

[Flash]

After the first catastrophic incident.

We always joked that they would fly the P-3's until the wings fell off, which maybe only half true. My favorite EP, "What do you do when the WING OFF light illuminates?"

BTW, I did not want to imply that the QDR was the be all to end all, but it is where the leadership of the DOD tells everyone what direction it thinks the US military should be taking. It will greatly affect budget decisions for years to come, and we all know "No bucks, no Buck Rogers". A lot of budget decisions are awaiting the QDR to come out, and like anything else in Washington, it is very political. While it is a DOD wide review, each of the services is lobbying its heart out to get the funding it wants. With $200 million F-22's, $3-7 billion DDX's and the Army's Land Warrior and Future Force Warrior http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jul2004/n07272004_2004072705.html costing billions, something has got to give.

While the MMA would probably be a great system, something cheaper would might be bought instead. Jsut take a look at the E-8 JSTARS. Instead of buying new airframes they 'zeroed out' old 707's and modified them. It was cheaper and it kept the program alive, but it gave the fleet a plane that has trouble in hot and high conditions (and where are they deployed, could it be the hottest region in the friggin world?). Among the planes they got, one which had a fuel fume problem they couldn't figure out and one that been used in Mexico to haul around cattle and still smelled like it. I woul dnot be suprised if the MMA was cancelled, Lockheed or Boeing (if they bribed the right people) would win a contract to rewing, reengine and requip the P-3 fleet, albiet in smaller numbers than are in the fleet now. Would it be cheaper? I think that is debatable seeing how poorly the Nimrod mod has gone for the RAF http://www.aviationweek.com/shownews/04farn/aircraft09.htm But, it will be sold as a cheaper solution and Naval Aviation will take another one in the shorts. If I were a betting man, I would give pretty good odds of happening instead of the MMA. Not what I would like but I can definitely see it happening .

 

[Jaxs170]

So, now here's a question: Since they want to fund all of these mega-programs, how much do they plan on cutting labor as a result? Seems like this draw down that's underway could be the tip of the iceberg since I am willing to bet these mega-programs are meant to have fewer people operating them. Will the Navy stop the drawdown at 300,000 people or is there room to get smaller and save the labor cost (and down the road the pension liability, which I know is on the forefront of pentagon planners' minds since it is such a huge drain on finances).

 

[Flash]

So, now here's a question: Since they want to fund all of these mega-programs, how much do they plan on cutting labor as a result? Seems like this draw down that's underway could be the tip of the iceberg since I am willing to bet these mega-programs are meant to have fewer people operating them. Will the Navy stop the drawdown at 300,000 people or is there room to get smaller and save the labor cost (and down the road the pension liability, which I know is on the forefront of pentagon planners' minds since it is such a huge drain on finances).

The point was that they cannot fund all of the programs I listed. Some things have got to give and the MMA might be one of them. I think a lot of it hinges on how much importance the QDR, the DOD and the Navy place on it. Who knows, but we wil start to find out soon.

BTW, I heard the Navy pulled out of the ACS, anyone else heard about that?

 

[USN99]

Couple of quick items

FYI ....... Just visited for a couple of days with a person who is in a position to know .... he says:

1. The MMA basing/placement (?) group is doing suitability and environmental studies at Whidbey .... AND ...... Point Mugu. He says NUW is NOT a "done deal" regarding the future basing of the MMA ..... ???

- Sorry but what does the acronym "NUW" stand for? I probably should know but don't recognize it.
- If one can believe the Boeing PR photos, there was a prototype MMA flying around all the VP bases in a time frame prior to source selection.

 

[nittany03]

- Sorry but what does the acronym "NUW" stand for? I probably should know but don't recognize it.

NAS Whidbey . . .
http://www.airnav.com/airport/KNUW

 

[mdubs]

Word from the admiral that spoke at the P-3 RAG the other day is that the ACS is history

 

[Flash]

Word from the admiral that spoke at the P-3 RAG the other day is that the ACS is history

I spoke too soon the other day. We just had to write a point paper because someone with stars on their shoulders wanted to know the status of the program and asked my boss to find out, notwithstanding that the subject was so far out of our lane.......

ACS is not dead yet, just on critical life support. The Army gave Lockheed another 30 day reprieve a few days ago but I would guess it is going to be re-bid. The Navy is commited to a joint solution and has taken a wait and see approach, in the meantime there are plans right now to sustain the EP-3 until 2017. We might have to wait another year or two to find out what the long term replacment is. This is right from the horse's mouth.

 

[mdubs]

Thanks for the info. My roomate, who is an EP-3 guy, was pretty surprised when the admiral was all doom and gloom on the future of the EP-3 community(Especially since the instructors in Advanced were saying the exaxt opposite to guys who were about to select).

 

[ip568]

I doubt the P-8A will be built in any significant numbers. There is no money for it. Look for ASW to transfer to HS, the LCS, and UAVs.

 

[Hozer]

MMA perspective from Jax

It looks like the best guess is LRIP around 2010. Over a third of the P-3 airframes from just three years ago are now in the desert.
The AIP birds we have now are being flown into the dirt. Airframe hours are being handed out piecemeal. IP's are showing up to the RAG for their instructor tours with less than 750 hrs total. The first instructor NFO's with no real-world ASW (other than US SSN/BN/GN) time are showing up back at the RAG.
It seems to be a depressing time, although transitional times are just that.
I do love getting those great P-4, LRAACA, P-5, P-7, and P-8 MMA posters though...
Sometimes, I'm not sure why I'm trying so hard to be a P-3 DH when there's not much flying.
Oh yeah, it looks like they are breaking ground on the western side of VP-30 for the new hangars to house the soon to be ex-Brunswick squadrons. ADM Prindle put out the same old, 2 wings, eight squadrons total sometime around 2010...
Oh yeah, to those JFK doubters, looks like we'll be around for at least another year...