I can’t really see the plumbing company sending a multimillion dollar robot to your house to replace your sink. However, I can definitely see HII using advanced robotics to weld reactors right the first time so new boats don’t need a 2.5 year PSA. (Looking at you,
Nu Flow) The military industrial complex I have no doubt will utilize these advances to the fullest extent and hopefully fix our system. Im not anti-union, but im anti-union when it’s at the tax payers expense. I have worked enough shipyard availabilities to know the bubbas are cheating the system worse than your buddy who developed carpal tunnel and tinnitus 2 months before separating. Also, robots won’t burn down a submarine because they want to go home early.
Hot AI take, i think most of the civilian professions/jobs are pretty safe in the long run. The big professions that are fearful (law, medical research, CS) will never let AI take over. They will use it, but it won’t replace them. The BAR won’t allow an AI to practice law and will debar attorneys who rely too heavily on it, pharma and hospitals won’t allow AI diagnoses or R&D without human oversight because it would put any malpractice directly on their shoulders instead of the MD responsible, and if you fire programmers you’re just converting them into black hats to go fuck up your networks. A real fun one I’ve seen is the idea that an AI can replace a therapist. Ain’t no way I’m taking advice from something that can’t feel feelings, even if it’s advice is bang on.
As for unskilled gigs like tech support, telemarketing, etc., people hate dealing with robots as it is. If a commercially available AI does eventually pass the Turing test, I highly doubt it will come at a cheaper price than the wages of the unskilled labor it would replace.
Progressing an AI into an AGI will be scary. But, an AGI is going to be used for complex problems like figuring out interstellar travel and not how to sell cars better. Maybe if it becomes widely available or an AGIaaS is implemented it can start to get pretty dystopian. However, if that happens, to quote the incredibles, “when everyone’s super, no one will be.” Your job security isn’t going to be your main concern when the Jones’s personal android butler can deepfake your likeness to convince your wife you were cheating on her all because you didn’t pick up your dog’s shit from their lawn.