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Selection out of Primary/Advanced

porw0004

standard-issue stud v2.0
pilot
I've been hanging out on these forums for a little over a month, more or less keeping my mouth shut and absorbing knowledge. I feel I've acquired a pretty good grasp on the general principles of how the whole training process works. However, there is something I'd like a little help putting into perspective. After using Search, I've found a lot of info on this topic, but nothing answering my specific question.

I fully understand that not everyone gets their first choice of platform. By choosing this career I think a person is making the statement that they're here to serve, not be served, so it's the nature of the game. While researching this topic I found a TON of comments from winged aviators along the lines of "I had the grades for jets, but ..."

To phrase my question in the most simple terms:

While it's technically possible for the top few studs navy-wide on a given selection week not to get their first choice of platform due to 'needs of the navy', how frequently does something this extreme actually happen?

I'm not looking for statistics or figures, just responses like 'I saw this happen to so-and-so', or 'I've never heard of this happening'. I'm trying to get a sense whether people who make comments like this were actually in the top 5% of their class and got "shafted" or were qualified statistically but not necessarily 'competitive' (like getting a 4/3/3 on the ASTB, or whatever the aviation minimum is), or somewhere inbetween. I've got a lot of steps yet before this is actually relavent to me (OCS, IFS, API, actual Primary), but I've got my Big 4 and other memorization down and don't really have much to do but my day job and pt, so I felt I could take some time to satisfy curiosity.

I'd would just like to finish of by saying that I in no way mean to imply that any of the people who have made comments like "I had the grades for jets, but .." are bitter, in fact, most seem to have embraced their assigned platforms like true professionals.
 

Morgan81

It's not my lawn. It's OUR lawn.
pilot
Contributor
To phrase my question in the most simple terms:

While it's technically possible for the top few studs navy-wide on a given selection week not to get their first choice of platform due to 'needs of the navy', how frequently does something this extreme actually happen?
Almost every week I hear of at least one dude getting their second or third choice who had good grades. Some weeks more guys get their second or third some everyone gets their first, it is random as far as I can tell. They call your preferences a dream sheet for a reason. It's something you have zero control over as long as you get good grades. Bust your ass, then hope things work out. There really is no sense worry about it now though, just worry about OCS and cross this bridge when you get here.
 

Nafod

Change I can belive in
When I selected pretty much everyone who had jet grades and wanted jets, got jets. Just a month prior to that only the top guy would get jets, regardless of how high anyone elses grades were. Its just timing and luck man. Just concentrate on doing as well as you can, and then on selection week sacrifice a goat to your voodoo loa of choice.
 

Beans

*1. Loins... GIRD
pilot
There are a surprising lot of relatively unattended goats in Milton, if you choose to go that route.

On a completely unrelated note, does anyone have some rope I can borrow next week some time? A set of cammies would be good, too.
 

UMichfly

Well-Known Member
pilot
None
There are a surprising lot of relatively unattended goats in Milton, if you choose to go that route.

On a completely unrelated note, does anyone have some rope I can borrow next week some time? A set of cammies would be good, too.

You do realize you're trying to steal some redneck's girlfriend(s) right? Hope you can outrun Jethro and his 12 gauge.
 

insanebikerboy

Internet killed the television star
pilot
None
Contributor
I've known them both. Guys that were #1 and got their second or third (or not even on their sheet) choice. I've also known guys who weren't anywhere near the top and got their first choice.

Selection is a black magic. Quality spread, timing, grades, instructor/CO input all play into it. To base it just off of grades won't fully explain it. Just prepare for what you want and don't be surprised if it doesn't necessarily work out that way. Be happy with what you get because it'll show if you're that guy with the chip on the shoulder.
 

kmac

Coffee Drinker
pilot
Super Moderator
Contributor
Adding to what insanebikerboy has said, timing can be the difference in a matter of mere weeks. For example, 2 weeks ago a kid with a 51 NSS (minimum 50 to qualify) got Tailhook, when last week a kid with a 59 (and finished #2 for the squadron) did not get his first choice (Tailhook). To say "jet grades" is merely to say elligible for Tailhook... it means nothing more than that.
 

porw0004

standard-issue stud v2.0
pilot
That's exactly the context I intended it.

Well, basically I got the impression I was expecting... that beyond doing your best it's really just black magic and warlockery.. in which case, maybe I should enlist this guy's aid:

Or maybe not.
 

tiger84

LT
pilot
It's best to not even think about it. I selected in early May with a 60 and got my third choice, which was Helos. There were two Tailhook slots and I was number three by a point or two. A few weeks before there weren't enough guys to fill the tailhook slots so they started asking people who hadn't even put it on there sheet if they wanted to go tailhook. It's a shitty system that completely lacks transparency, but that's the way it works. I was never disappointed in the fact that I got helos, just the fact that I busted my ass and didn't get what I wanted when guys who barely had jet grades got Tailhook.

That being said, I am getting more stoked about helos every day. It's looking like a pretty good deal and should be some fun flying. Plus, most of my buddies are here so I know I'll enjoy my time in advanced and beyond.
 

Heloanjin

Active Member
pilot
Selection is a black magic. Quality spread, timing, grades, instructor/CO input all play into it.

Just so you know, quality spread is not a factor in selection. CO input is a factor pretty much only if he says a selector is NOT good for a particular pipeline.

While there are lots of stories of how the #1 guy didn't get his choice, it actually doesn't happen that often. What the #1 guy doesn't always realize is even if he is #1 in his squadron, he may not be the #1 guy selecting.

Unfortunately, there are too many actual cases where one week a 60 NSS doesn't get you anything on your dream sheet, but the next week a 50.00001 gets you your first choice.

It really isn't black magic. What it is is a very tough job by someone at CNATRA who is trying to make the best decisions based on good information, but also on predictions of the future. Like a weather forcast, these predictions can be way off and they can change from day to day.

Just be glad you're an aviator, whatever you end up flying.
 

BACONATOR

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
Have you ever read tea leaves? I hear it's kind like that. Seriously. Don't even worry about it. Will you? Yes. We ALL try to figure out where we stand, but in reality, you will generally have NO IDEA what you're going to get until the XO/CO reads your selection off of the paper.

Generally you KNOW who the cry-babies are going to be (if they don't get what they want...usually TH guys). They are the ones who two weeks prior, are asking EVERYONE about their grades, asking previous dudes what the NSSes were during their selections and filling out excel spreadsheets to try and figure out where they stand.

My suggestion: Don't be ENS/2ndLT Douchebag. Go out and drink. Celebrate completing primary and just get EXCITED about being one step closer to wings! (oh, and pray you don't get P-3. I KEED!)
 

Beans

*1. Loins... GIRD
pilot
Bogey, just make that post your signature... I'm not disagreeing with what you're saying, but if you did that about a month ago, you'd have several hundred fewer posts than you do now. You could save yourself some time.
 

flyerstud4

Registered User
If you want to guarantee your first choice, be the top guy. Like what Heloanjin said, be the top guy selecting from every squadron. How do you be the top guy? Thats a tuffy, i'd say maybe go out and pick up some ratings like your ppl and instrument.( I will catch hell for saying that, but i believe it helps.) Another money maker, is to crush the sims. Crushing sims, takes a lot of practice and free time, but man can you make some money in the simulator. Not just in grades, but in making you a better pilot. And whatever you do, dont listen to the horror stories, you got a mission to do and that is finish primary with a score that will get you what you want.
 
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