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Road to 350: What Does the US Navy Do Anyway?

These things aren’t full autonomous unless we are prepared to put a lot more compute, power, and cost into them.

Oh, it’s coming, the computing and power, while keeping costs down.

Great article in NYTimes, open access.


From the article…

Her alarm sounded after American veterans of Afghanistan and Iraq visited Ukraine to prospect for business or fight as volunteers. They entered a war in which new tech has caused almost unfathomable carnage. Russia and Ukraine have suffered well over a million combined casualties in less than four years, with most wounds caused by drones. “They come back from the front, like, shaken,” she said, and they share a refrain: “My team would not last for 48 hours out there.” With A.I.-enhanced drones joining the action, Fairlamb described the need to boost A.I.-arms development as no less than existential, prompting her to approach embassies and arms manufacturers with urgency. “It really and truly is about making people understand how dramatically different this technology is,” she said. “And how unbelievably unprepared the United States is.”
 
I could see a use case for this thing as the primary escort for the CVN. There are many threats out there that now handily outrange the air wing and can also bypass the defensive layer it provides the CSG. I mean, I’m not saying it’ll actually be technically feasible (either technology or industrial capacity), or that it will even be the most cost effective way to provide its capability. Just that it has a potential use case if it worked out. As I told a friend, this thing is either uniquely brilliant vision, or the most fucking batshit crazy idea ever.

Nuclear cruise missiles as a primary mission is kinda nuts though. If we are going to have one in the Navy arsenal, from a sub it makes sense. Even off FFGs or DDGs it could let them punch above their weight. But from a BBG? It’ll carry super long range hypersonics but then be stuck with a nuclear cruise missile with less range? As is, that makes no sense.

The historical example that comes to mind is the USS North Carolina guarding the Enterprise at the Battle of Eastern Solomons in August 1942. The “Showboat” was able to bring to bear so much sustained AA firepower that the other ships thought she had been hit and was burning.

A big ship should have much larger magazines and a substantially longer range than the Burkes and Ticonderogas - important if ammunition and fuel resupply are problematic. That said, I would expect the design to ditch the hangar (this thing wouldn’t hunt submarines) and the newly created space to be filled with VLS - a ship of this size should have in excess of 300 cells.
 
Oh, it’s coming, the computing and power, while keeping costs down.

Great article in NYTimes, open access.


From the article…

Her alarm sounded after American veterans of Afghanistan and Iraq visited Ukraine to prospect for business or fight as volunteers. They entered a war in which new tech has caused almost unfathomable carnage. Russia and Ukraine have suffered well over a million combined casualties in less than four years, with most wounds caused by drones. “They come back from the front, like, shaken,” she said, and they share a refrain: “My team would not last for 48 hours out there.” With A.I.-enhanced drones joining the action, Fairlamb described the need to boost A.I.-arms development as no less than existential, prompting her to approach embassies and arms manufacturers with urgency. “It really and truly is about making people understand how dramatically different this technology is,” she said. “And how unbelievably unprepared the United States is.”
The first step in getting to autonomy is admitting how far we are from autonomy, something the tech bros at places like Anduril won’t do.

We crashed several millions of dollars worth of “semi autonomous” drones between CBR 25-02, PCC5, and NTC26-02. In every one of those events the presentation from industry is how revolutionary these things are when they really are just cheaper group2/3 man in the loop required UAS. Now tell me how we teach the robot to understand commanders reconnaissance guidance like a 19 series cav scout would.

And the observed 30-45 minutes of promised 1h30m because thermal performance of batteries is thing doesn’t get better when you start sticking the kinds of processing necessary.

I’m not saying it’s not possible I’m saying that people are prepared to believe the car salesman because it promises cheap democratized easy button to long range precision strike.
 
I would expect the design to ditch the hangar (this thing wouldn’t hunt submarines) and the newly created space to be filled with VLS

Keep in mind they do much more than just hunt subs. Helos are an integral part of the kill-chain as one of the primary sources for surface targeting.
 
Without a nuke powerplant, seems like the opposite would be true.
The Ticonderoga has a range of 6,000 NM at 20 knots, the Burke 4,400 NM at 20 knots. The Iowas had roughly the same size hull as the proposed new ship - and had a range of 11,700 NM at 20 knots with 1940’s 600 psi steam turbines. Much depends on the type of power plant chosen, and if energy weapons ever pan out.

Keep in mind they do much more than just hunt subs. Helos are an integral part of the kill-chain as one of the primary sources for surface targeting.

This ship will not operate alone and can rely on other ships for helicopters. 300, 400, 500+ VLS cells are more important than a helicopter hangar.
 
The Ticonderoga has a range of 6,000 NM at 20 knots, the Burke 4,400 NM at 20 knots. The Iowas had roughly the same size hull as the proposed new ship - and had a range of 11,700 NM at 20 knots with 1940’s 600 psi steam turbines. Much depends on the type of power plant chosen, and if energy weapons ever pan out.
Recommend reviewing this thread to bring you up to speed on the power requirements imposed by the desired capabilities for this platform.

500+ VLS cells
Are you high right now?
 
We crashed several millions of dollars worth of “semi autonomous” drones between CBR 25-02, PCC5, and NTC26-02. In every one of those events the presentation from industry is how revolutionary these things are when they really are just cheaper group2/3 man in the loop required UAS. Now tell me how we teach the robot to understand commanders reconnaissance guidance like a 19 series cav scout would.
The folks in Ukraine are doing it in extraordinarily rapid iteration driven by daily ops that dwarf any of our exercises.

Our experts who have been there say we are way behind. Your comment on our exercises backs that up.

Maybe how we do our tactics will evolve to exploit the new capabilities offered while working around the weak spots.
 
Two thoughts -

1) War is the ultimate innovation factory. That’s why UKR is doing better than we try to kill Pahrumphians on the range.

2) Rail guns like EMALS need a rapid current discharge to move their item. Nuclear power doesn’t get you to a ‘no’ on either. Nuclear power is more for endurance. There are operational conventional plants that put out the same power as a Ford class.
 
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