Rand study on USAF pilot retention

[Hotdogs]

I will grant you that the article isn’t heavily researched but what is the issue with WO aviators? If I understand most of what I read here folks are leaving because they aren’t flying - WO’s fly (at least if you follow the Army model). Yes, Army WO’s have additional duties, but even those duties which are Instructor Pilot (IP), Aviation Safety Officer, Maintenance Test Pilot, or Tactical Operations Officer but these are flight involved. I understand that continuous deployments and QOL enter into the retention equation, but I get a sense that if a young person joins to fly they might stay longer if they fly more.

The pilot shortage is a market issue related to airlines retirements combined with the effect of budget effect on maintenance/deployment cycles that has had a toll in terms of flight hours and squadron culture on pilots. This has been discussed ad nauseam.

Enlisted to Warrant Officer accessions would solve we currently don’t have. We have a retention problem. There are plenty of candidates willing to fly gray aircraft, but production isn’t currently structured to increase those numbers. We have an issue retaining pilots. 5-10 years from now could be a completely different story for those going through the pipeline now. Could it be done? Yes, but it would take a complete top-down restructure that will be painful for everyone involved.

Current Marine Aviator career progression isn’t set up for career flying tracks. Most Marine T/R program manuals and squadron manning aren’t set up for long term pilot-only billets. Lots of B-billets aren’t flying either which need to be filled and require pilots. We’re not talking about “just adding Warrant Officer pilots” were talking about a whole-sale redesign of Marine Aviation manpower management and training. I would love to fly for an entire career, and I like the thought of that, but why does it need to be a warrant? Why can’t a commissioned officer fly his entire career?

The Gunner speaks as if a Infantry Sgt directly correlates to being a pilot who supports grunts. There is some valuable experience to utilize and bleed over that is an advantage. However it is not anywhere near as much as he think there is while managing a section or division of aircraft in an assault support or OAS role. He probably should stay in his lane. I actually laughed out loud at this quote:

“Not only are Army pilots laser focused on technical and tactical proficiency”

Yeah, No shit man. I have not been a part of...nor worked with a HMLA that wasn’t...

 

[Griz882]

The pilot shortage is a market issue related to airlines retirements combined with the effect of budget effect on maintenance/deployment cycles that has had a toll in terms of flight hours and squadron culture on pilots. This has been discussed ad nauseam.

Enlisted to Warrant Officer accessions would solve we currently don’t have. We have a retention problem. There are plenty of candidates willing to fly gray aircraft, but production isn’t currently structured to increase those numbers. We have an issue retaining pilots. 5-10 years from now could be a completely different story for those going through the pipeline now. Could it be done? Yes, but it would take a complete top-down restructure that will be painful for everyone involved.

Current Marine Aviator career progression isn’t set up for career flying tracks. Most Marine T/R program manuals and squadron manning aren’t set up for long term pilot-only billets. Lots of B-billets aren’t flying either which need to be filled and require pilots. We’re not talking about “just adding Warrant Officer pilots” were talking about a whole-sale redesign of Marine Aviation manpower management and training. I would love to fly for an entire career, and I like the thought of that, but why does it need to be a warrant? Why can’t a commissioned officer fly his entire career?

The Gunner speaks as if a Infantry Sgt directly correlates to being a pilot who supports grunts. There is some valuable experience to utilize and bleed over that is an advantage. However it is not anywhere near as much as he think there is while managing a section or division of aircraft in an assault support or OAS role. He probably should stay in his lane. I actually laughed out loud at this quote:

“Not only are Army pilots laser focused on technical and tactical proficiency”

Yeah, No shit man. I have not be a part of...nor worked with a HMLA that wasn’t...

Good points, especially the part about commissioned officers.

 

[Pags]

Gunner is his rank as in he is an Marine Gunner (combat arms WO) distinguished by a bursting bomb on one collar and his WO rank on the other. His name really is Keith Marine. You can see him here...https://www.dvidshub.net/video/147820/cwo3-keith-marine

Yeah, I understand how USMC ranks work, but thanks.

That video is totally just Photoshop. Next thing you'll be telling me there really is a Shmuckatelli.

 

[Griz882]

Yeah, I understand how USMC ranks work, but thanks.

That video is totally just Photoshop. Next thing you'll be telling me there really is a Shmuckatelli.

Hey, I served with Shmuckatelli...we all miss him, hard to talk about.

 

[Pags]

Not a really well informed article, and downright out of touch with the actual problems. Lots of platitudes will little actual content.

Also isn't the made up guy they quoted a grunt?

 

[Hotdogs]

Also isn't the made up guy they quoted a grunt?

All Marine Gunners are grunts. So yes, he is a Infantryman, man.

 

[Spekkio]

I fully realize a reserve Captain does not have the ability to change anything. The capacity for change lies far beyond that rank, as others on this board have said.

So then why bother asking him the question?

As for responses:

1. It's not a "question" as in a JO gripe, as you state. It's a legitimate question. How can we be combat effective with the lack of training and shitty aircraft that we were given? Can I work a 7-10 hour CAS flight? Sure. A DCA against a peer adversary? A completely different question entirely.

2. If a senior officer is "testy" towards me when I ask for more flight hours to be truly tactically proficient, then he/she has their head buried in the fucking sand. Some of this is about manning shortfalls. Some of this is about the quality of aircrew we retain (former non-flying staffer vs patch-wearer DH). What matters to the people who are in the moment is getting more hours to be ready for a peer threat. If you think "fleet average" is enough, as you stated above, then you are sorely mistaken. That very line of reasoning is what drives us up the fucking wall when we see aircrew get their asses kicked by red air in every workup event due to lack of experience.

I think you missed my point a bit. We have to start with trying to answer: What does it mean to be "truly tactically proficent" and "ready for a peer threat?" What does that look like and how are you evaluating it? That's not an easy question to answer, mind you, and people wearing stars are struggling to answer it. All I'm saying is that if the answer is "I don't know, but I need more resources (flight hours, money for maintenance, etc) to be ready", don't be surprised when the people who control those resources balk at the request.

On the flip side, I think that if we entered or were about to enter conflict with a near peer that we would see the spicket turned on for funding.

As for simulator proficiency, you CANNOT build tactical proficiency from sims alone. What are you going to do when your systems and weapons don't work perfectly like in the sims? How can aircrew survive at the merge when they haven't done an AGSM and "felt the jet" for real in weeks, but they've practiced merge mech in the sim? It's complete bullshit that anyone thinks we can trade flight time for sim time and maintain the same proficiency, all in the name of saving some cash.

I never said that only sim time would maintain tactical proficiency. There are limitations to playing a fancy video game, I get that. However, you can still get good training value out of them and use them to supplement a robust training program.

The end state that you mention is not what we have now, as in bombing assclowns in adidas track suits and sneakers. The end state is being ready for a peer fight, which like it or not, is a very real thing.

I know. The point I'm trying to make is that the 'end state' is undefined right now.

If senior leaders think that the aircraft we fly and the hours we're getting are preparing us for that, then they're in for a very rude awakening when we finally go "check tapes, master arm."

I don't think they think that at all.

 

[Flash]

I never said that only sim time would maintain tactical proficiency. There are limitations to playing a fancy video game, I get that. However, you can still get good training value out of them and use them to supplement a robust training program.

Sims, while a critical part of training, offer far less bang for the buck than ship or submarine sims since so much of the dynamic part of flight can't be replicated.

 

[Hair Warrior]

Someone please coach me up on Marine and Army enlisted and warrant ranks.

I know in the Navy, to be eligible for warrant, you have to either currently be a CPO (or SCPO), or be a PO1 who is eligible for CPO (and pass the CPO’s exam).

From Chickenhawk or some other source, I think I read that the Army takes pilot warrant candidates off the street, and they become a warrant during or after their completion of pilot training.

Is that true for the Army? Also, how do the Marines make a warrant?

Edit: Army WOFT program

 

[Flash]

From Chickenhawk or some other source, I think I read that the Army takes pilot warrant candidates off the street, and they become a warrant during or after their completion of pilot training.

Is that true for the Army? Also, how do the Marines make a warrant?

Edit: Army WOFT program

They Army makes Warrants the 'traditional' way, taking mid to senior-grade NCO's and making them WO's who are specialists in their MOS's, and pilot WO's who just pilot. Aviator WO's can be prior service, and come from any service, or can come off the street. It is a pretty good deal and works well with the Army but for a myriad of reasons, discussed here periodically, it wouldn't work as well for the other services.

Though a little old this article provides a good overview of the different Marine WO programs.

 

[Griz882]

The article is a few weeks old, but a quick AW search didn't turn up much about budget shortfalls - so if I missed a discussion already in progress I apologize.

Naval Aviation Facing Unexpected Budget Shortfall - USNI News

The naval aviation community is facing a budget shortfall of at least $100 million for the current fiscal year and may have to cut back flight hours and other operations between now and the Sept. 30 end of the fiscal year, USNI News learned. Commander of Naval Air Force Atlantic Rear Adm. Roy...

news.usni.org

Being a federal employee I get the shortfall part...but what does "shutting down an air wing" even look like? I'm not sure if USNI is a reliable source anymore, but I can't imagine what this will do to aviator retention.

 

[Recovering LSO]

Being a federal employee I get the shortfall part...but what does "shutting down an air wing" even look like? I'm not sure if USNI is a reliable source anymore, but I can't imagine what this will do to aviator retention.

It kinda means exactly what it says... Flight hour funding, parts/supply chain shortages, and carrier availability mean there's an air-wing out there with very little to do - and very little to do it with.

What makes you think USNI may not be a reliable source any more?

 

[Griz882]

What makes you think USNI may not be a reliable source any more?

No implications. I simply haven't read it in years.

 

[DanMa1156]

The article is a few weeks old, but a quick AW search didn't turn up much about budget shortfalls - so if I missed a discussion already in progress I apologize.

Naval Aviation Facing Unexpected Budget Shortfall - USNI News

The naval aviation community is facing a budget shortfall of at least $100 million for the current fiscal year and may have to cut back flight hours and other operations between now and the Sept. 30 end of the fiscal year, USNI News learned. Commander of Naval Air Force Atlantic Rear Adm. Roy...

news.usni.org

Being a federal employee I get the shortfall part...but what does "shutting down an air wing" even look like? I'm not sure if USNI is a reliable source anymore, but I can't imagine what this will do to aviator retention.

I was part of a squadron that was shut down (deactivated, officially) as part of the CVW-14 shutdown. The effect it had on my FITREP, career outlook, and opprtunites I was previously tracking for has indeed made me bitter enough years later that, in addition to other things, I'm near the point where I can't wait to get out of the Navy. In the middle of my JO tour I couldn't imagine myself saying this. It really pains me, honestly, it does pain me to say that. I love(d) the Navy.

 

[Griz882]

I was part of a squadron that was shut down (deactivated, officially) as part of the CVW-14 shutdown. The effect it had on my FITREP, career outlook, and opprtunites I was previously tracking for has indeed made me bitter enough years later that, in addition to other things, I'm near the point where I can't wait to get out of the Navy. In the middle of my JO tour I couldn't imagine myself saying this. It really pains me, honestly, it does pain me to say that. I love(d) the Navy.

Thanks for the info. What you write is pretty much what I expected to read, but it is interesting nevertheless. I understand budgets fairly well but the manpower/HR aspect of shuttering an entire air wing is mind boggling to me. Sorry to hear it had such a notable impact on you personally.