Pilot shortage?

[Jim123]

700 extra ensigns for attrition is absurdly high

It sure does.

Historically, API attrited about 10-20% for various reasons although some years had some pretty wild swings ( @Uncle Fester probably has more accurate facts and stats on that), primary below 10% although it was in the teens for the first few years the T-6 was online (T-6 was little harder to fly which meant it was easier to let it get away from you and do something dangerous, in a nutshell), and both maritime and helo advanced were low single digit percent. Jet advanced was higher but the bulk of those attrities seemed to be DQ at the boat (and often those particular guys successfully recycled through one of the other pipelines).

So yeah, for a system that is set up to wing less than a thousand pilots every year, 700 sounds like there's a piece of the puzzle missing. Maybe NIFE is structured much, much differently than API+IFS; stranger things have happened.

 

[Python]

It sure does.

Historically, API attrited about 10-20% for various reasons although some years had some pretty wild swings ( @Uncle Fester probably has more accurate facts and stats on that), primary below 10% although it was in the teens for the first few years the T-6 was online (T-6 was little harder to fly which meant it was easier to let it get away from you and do something dangerous, in a nutshell), and both maritime and helo advanced were low single digit percent. Jet advanced was higher but the bulk of those attrities seemed to be DQ at the boat (and often those particular guys successfully recycled through one of the other pipelines).

So yeah, for a system that is set up to wing less than a thousand pilots every year, 700 sounds like there's a piece of the puzzle missing. Maybe NIFE is structured much, much differently than API+IFS; stranger things have happened.

Not denying this. Just seems surprising to me. I’ve only gotten two fams in the T-6 so my experience is virtually nil there, but I would’ve figured the treacherous T-34, which it’s old cockpit and insane trimming requirements would’ve been harder. Again, don’t know. Just pontificating.

 

[Birdbrain]

Not denying this. Just seems surprising to me. I’ve only gotten two fams in the T-6 so my experience is virtually nil there, but I would’ve figured the treacherous T-34, which it’s old cockpit and insane trimming requirements would’ve been harder. Again, don’t know. Just pontificating.

When I went through primary people that flew the T-34 (IPs) told me the T-6 is harder mostly because it has mo powah.

 

[taxi1]

T-34...insane trimming requirements

Somebody give Python a ride in an E-2.

 

[ChuckMK23]

Some gouge - I don't know if it was said in any of this forum, but there is not a pilot shortage. Speaking from the first step of the program, the NIFE director said that there is about 700 student pilot selects that the Navy needs to attrite before winging. They front-load about 700 people in the beginning, assuming DOR, attritte or NPQ. FYI

Typical Student Control FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) - meant for gossip fodder to SNA's in Schools Command.

 

[ChuckMK23]

We are doing Rated Prep Program this week at KDTO - giving about 100+ active duty AF JO's and E4/E5's who applied for AF UPT and OTS (officer accession), but scored below the acceptance criteria on the AF version of AQT/FAR. They receive 10+ hours of dual instruction in the air + private pilot level ground school and then they reapply - with the goal of boosting motivation and aeronautical knowledge. Fairly successful program. The instruction is in G1000 Cessna 182T's.

Tells you how seriously AF is working creative solutions to get diverse high performers in the UPT pipeline to address pilot shortfall. We will do a second round of RPP in September in Columbus, IN (KBAK). Program is funded through FY 2023....

 

[Gatordev]

My rough napkin math says 700 studs would be ~40-50% attrition, assuming there are 50 API classes a year (probably high) and a class has 30 studs (which I think was about right when I went through). Even the mid-2000's "cleansing" wasn't that bad.

We are doing Rated Prep Program this week at KDTO

Watch out for the Chinese Air Force there...and the angry lady in the tower. She can be more annoying the Chinese studs.

 

[Python]

Somebody give Python a ride in an E-2.

Ive done that too. I stand by my statement.

 

[HSMPBR]

T-34 pitch trim

 

[taxi1]

E2 emergency trim

 

[SynixMan]

Flew both the T-34 (SNA) and T-6 (IP). The T-6 is more of a beast at first and the landing gear isn't as forgiving as the T-34's was. Trim is honestly easier because of the Trim-Aid Device for the rudder. My understanding was when the T-6 was first introduced in 2010, they also ran a higher tire pressure that resulted in more blown tires and subsequent concern over blowing tires. That may have contributed a bit to failures for pattern/landing work on the first cadre of folks, but I think it's been sorted out and the gouge/IP teaching techniques have settled down.

Most, if not all, attrites I saw in Primary were either a) didn't put the work in studying/prepping and it showed or b) Not "aeronautically adaptable" aka just can't make the stick and rudder/headwork part happen. Probably the smartest on-wing I had was in the latter camp. Could recite chapter and verse from the FTI/NATOPS, talk through course rules perfectly, etc, but would just get way behind the aircraft and couldn't square the landing pattern. He's a Intel O now, and I'm sure he's kicking ass at it.

BT BT

@Gatordev The "API Redux" of YG09-10 was about ~300-400 per YG as Ensigns. This 700 number seems way off unless there's some big changes afoot we aren't aware of. HSC is shrinking a bit, VRC is growing a bit (I assume with 3 AC dets).

 

[jointhelocalizer]

There is also a talk of an SNFO shortage within NASC. Anecdotally, I have heard it mentioned a bit less than the SNA overage, but I have heard both. Talking to other ENS, I have heard reasons including predicted budget cuts and COVID increasing time to train as reasons for the alleged SNA cuts. From what I have seen, a SNFO classes up in a matter of a few weeks at VT-10, but it has been taking 2-3 months for Milton. Oddly enough, I have not seen any traffic about redesignation at all. I might be naive (as most ENS are), but I'd bet there would be SNAs willing to head to VT-10 vice one of the SNA VTs if it came down to the overage being a real issue. I'd take a redesignation if I was asked to, but that is just me. Any flying is good flying and you still get to rock the brown shoes and be part of one of the best teams out there.

 

[FrankTheTank]

We are doing Rated Prep Program this week at KDTO - giving about 100+ active duty AF JO's and E4/E5's who applied for AF UPT and OTS (officer accession), but scored below the acceptance criteria on the AF version of AQT/FAR. They receive 10+ hours of dual instruction in the air + private pilot level ground school and then they reapply - with the goal of boosting motivation and aeronautical knowledge. Fairly successful program. The instruction is in G1000 Cessna 182T's.

Tells you how seriously AF is working creative solutions to get diverse high performers in the UPT pipeline to address pilot shortfall. We will do a second round of RPP in September in Columbus, IN (KBAK). Program is funded through FY 2023....

If they are high performers then why would they need this program? Sounds more like bringing marginal performance up to the basic standards.

 

[Jim123]

I forgot about that tire pressure change in the T-6. Before that you'd normally have one or both tires replaced on the stack of MAFs in the ADB, which by my rough math at the time was a life expectancy of around a hundred landings (touch and goes plus full stops), which is quite atrocious. NAVAIR studied having a lower tire pressure for a couple of years (at the speed of incompetent bureaucracy) and concluded it would be okay to run 185psi instead of 225 IIRC (funny how the numbers from the open book test reside in my permanent memory). That change made its way to the "fleet" around 2015≈± and then the average ADB would have one or no tires in the stack of MAFs. Part of the comedy of errors was that since it's a high speed tire, the tire has to be bonded to the wheel with an adhesive that basically takes overnight to cure. That means for Maintenance to have spare tires on hand, they had to mount them to spare wheels the day before and if they ran out, they ran out. The lower pressure changed the wear pattern enough that you'd get more landings until the red cord within saw the light. By my unofficial math it felt like the tires got 50% more life.

I'm kinda surprised none of the EMBA students "studied" the issue of tire life and second-order results on time to train. The aircraft repainting cycle, the Florida sun, and those aircraft shelters at Whiting grew out of some grad student's NPS EMBA capstone project from the late 2000s. Basically if you park an aircraft in the shade then the paint doesn't fade as quickly, spend less money repainting the planes less often, and the money you save on paint will pay off the shelters in x number of years. The funding for those was earmarked in the federal budget by about 2009. That's what synergistic leverage of your Naval Postgraduate School knowledge and talent gets ya. I just hope that guy got a NAM.

 

[Brett327]

Sounds more like bringing marginal performance up to the basic standards.

Improving performance through training and experience. What a novel concept. Any Annapolis grads around here go through NAPS?