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Pilot shortage?

Mumbles

Registered User
pilot
Contributor
Given the horrific screen rates for O-4/DH of the past couple years, coupled with the deliberate under accession of aviators in YGs 2007-2010, the next 5 years or so in naval aviation could prove very interesting. Hopefully we don't end up back in a situation with no DH screen board or something. I've heard horror stories of some of the mouth breathers they allowed to be DHs in the mid 2000s simply because they needed bodies to fill billets. I think the plus side of the low rates of recent history is that there is definitely pressure to perform, JOs know this, and so slackers amongst JOs are not well received.
you heard right....it is truth
 

Mumbles

Registered User
pilot
Contributor
I had one of those "PPC-buts" for a 2P this last deployment. Great guy, not spectacular as a pilot. It is added stress as a PPC/MC when you can't walk to the back of the bus and take a piss without wondering if you are going to punch through standoff...

He probably has more direct influence on how I grade my primary studs than anything else I've encountered. I will do anything in my power to prevent that level of talent from advancing to the next level.

Unfortunately some people don't like being "the bad guy" and the trash gets passed. Sometimes all the way to O-4...I'd rather have 8 good pilots than 12 mediocre/crappy pilots.
Good luck on being a talent filter Alex. You should have figured out by now that CNATRA doesn't attrite anybody anymore....
 

lowflier03

So no $hit there I was
pilot
Good luck on being a talent filter Alex. You should have figured out by now that CNATRA doesn't attrite anybody anymore....
Sadly that is the case at all levels of training now. Everyone gets told that they are a "pump" not a "filter". Assuming that if someone really isn't cut out for the job, they will get attrited at the next level. And by the time they are hitting the fleet it's too late, and everyone assumes they met the standard or they wouldn't have made it past all the previous training.
 

ssnspoon

Get a brace!
pilot
Many other militaries around the world have an off ramp at about the same place our "experienced senior LT's" are at. Stay in the cockpit, serve up your experience to the junior guys, but you are no longer on the golden path to command and flag. Take the other road and it ends up much like our DH, staff, XO/CO....path. I wonder how much that model might do over here, I know it would make me stay active.
 
Pump vs. Filter happens in almost every Navy school now. Graduation percentages get put on awards, evals, and fitreps (eg "as head instructor, 99/100 students passed the course"). Of course, passing that high of a percentage often means that the quality of the product goes down, but that logic escapes awards, evals, and fitreps. I have seen a struggling seaman retake a final exam alone in a room full of chiefs and magically pass by the minimum score more than once.
 

e6bflyer

Used to Care
pilot
I was a JO in the mid-2000's when there was no DH board and there was a staggering lack of talent in the O-4 ranks at my squadron.
History will repeat itself, although I certainly hope not to that same degree. The 8 year pilot commitment may certainly help boost the numbers on the pilot side.
 

statesman

Shut up woman... get on my horse.
pilot
It can still result in the loss of US citizenship. I know of two that seriously thought about it but backed off after bing told point blank that they would lose their citizenship, not worth the risk even if someone changed their mind recently since it could change back just as easy.

Why would they loose their citizenship?

The policy of the State Department is that you only loose citizenship is if you publicly denounce your citizenship to the United States.
 

ProsNest1

Not quite a new member
None
Good luck on being a talent filter Alex. You should have figured out by now that CNATRA doesn't attrite anybody anymore....

Not accurate...overall 3-yr attrition rate has held steady at 21% (all aviation) over the past 10 years (3 yr average, 5 yr average, and 10 yr average).
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Why would they [lose] their citizenship?

Because it is the law. 8 USC § 1481 says the following:

A person who is a national of the United States whether by birth or naturalization, shall lose his nationality by voluntarily performing any of the following acts with the intention of relinquishing United States nationality -
(3) entering, or serving in, the armed forces of a foreign state if
(A) such armed forces are engaged in hostilities against the United States, or
(B) such persons serve as a commissioned or non-commissioned officer; or
.......

(5) making a formal renunciation of nationality before a diplomatic or consular officer of the United States in a foreign state, in such form as may be prescribed by the Secretary of State; or
(6) making in the United States a formal written renunciation of nationality in such form as may be prescribed by, and before such officer as may be designated by, the Attorney General, whenever the United States shall be in a state of war and the Attorney General shall approve such renunciation as not contrary to the interests of national defense; or


The policy of the State Department is that you only [lose] citizenship is if you publicly denounce your citizenship to the United States.

While it is listed on the State Department website that they have "a uniform administrative standard of evidence based on the premise that U.S. citizens intend to retain United States citizenship when they obtain naturalization in a foreign state, subscribe to a declaration of allegiance to a foreign state, serve in the armed forces of a foreign state not engaged in hostilities" by law if you join the armed forces of a foreign country as a commissioned or non-commissioned officer no matter if the country is hostile or not there no need to declare your intentions to anyone (that is where the 'or' part of the law is key).

A former CO of mine did a PEP tour in Australia and said he came really close to switching over to the RAAF at the end of his tour and commitment but he didn't because the US Embassy there told him point blank he would lose his citizenship. He said he knew others that had joined the RAAF and lost their citizenship though that may have changed since he was 'Down Under'. I have also known of several US citizens who have served in the Israeli armed forces with no reprecussions other than clearance issues. I am not sure what the differences were but policy can change and you might end up on the short end of the stick if you are unlucky.
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Don't you wish that hate on me Ricky Bobby. I just hope the DHs of the future are not the guys that qualified PPC/TACCO yet were never allowed to sit those positions without babysitters and were just qualified so the command didn't have to go through the process of kicking them out. The problem with those guys is, come FITREP time, some of those guys get EPs because, well, they're nice guys and work hard at their ground jobs and the skipper has one more EP to give out. With said EP they now have a good shot of making DH. When they come in the squadron again it's assumed they're good in the plane and can be help JOs develop tactically, when that might not have been the case at all. And thus mediocrity perpetuates.

Sounds like a squadron and community problem and one that a DH screen isn't going to help if they walked out with their quals and an EP. Sounds like something your community needs to fix and not big Navy.

I did my first squadron tour with guys who didn't go through the DH screen and the second with ones who had and while there were some differences the folks were good and bad in about equal amounts. Granted my first squadron was very atypical with over half the DH's being transitions and a few cast-offs from other communities, most were good guys though in and out of the plane (unlike most communties though the DHs were not the experts though, the JOs were) and did well enough to include most of the 'cast-offs' though the few VP dumped on us weren't all that great. And I saw several of my better peers not make it past DH screen in both communities because of timing, luck and poor decisions by some COs. In the end the DH screen can only help so much if your squadron and community leadership doesn't play by the rules though the end result will likely be the same. To borrow the phrase, "the more thigns change......"
 

Gatordev

Well-Known Member
pilot
Site Admin
Contributor
While it may be an issue that a community needs to fix, it's not specific to one community. I saw the same thing as JO when there weren't screen boards. Sounds like VQ(J) had the issue as well. Maybe TACAIR is just a talent utopia!
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
While it may be an issue that a community needs to fix, it's not specific to one community. I saw the same thing as JO when there weren't screen boards. Sounds like VQ(J) had the issue as well. Maybe TACAIR is just a talent utopia!

I thought I was pretty clear that the VAQ DHs were no better or worse than the VQ(P) ones I had, I had a few real 'winners' as VAQ DHs, making it evident to me that the screen board didn't do much.

VQ(J)? It is VQ(P) and VQ(J) if you really wanted to know or cared......which I doubt ;).
 
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