O4 List

[BackOrdered]

Meanwhile, their SWO and supply corps counterparts who can barely tie their black shoelaces, are asked to stick around and continue to sit on their ass and eat navy chow until they auto-select for O-5. But I digress, that's another rant for another thread.

Well, time to dive in. The last board and the upcoming board for 3100 has us at 70%, assuming no one selects above or below zone. We are playing PERS' lethal game of musical chairs just like everyone else as far as dotting I's and T's leading up to the board.

 

[lowflier03]

As a follow up to this thread, it doesn't seem like there is much discussion on the FY14 results that came out in JUL 13.

As predicted, the downward trend continued, with a 1310 overall at 60% select, and rotary wing probably in the gutter at less than half able to put on a gold oak leaf.

According to the detailer .ppt for Helo O-4 IZ selects:
FY 13 - 60%
FY 14 - 61%

Quote from their newest brief states that the O-4 board is "Arguably the biggest career hurdle now in Naval Aviation."

 

[Hozer]

Damn, that's rough.^^
Even if you make 0-4, are they allowing continuation to 20?

 

[CommodoreMid]

Anyone see any comprehensive breakdown of selection by community? My glance at the PERS site only had it broken down by designator.

 

[lowflier03]

From the Helo Brief. I didnt see anything similar for the other communities.
FY13 FY14
URL Overall 70% 70%
Aviation 65% 63%
All 1310 66% 61%
All 1320 11% 63%
Helo Overall 60% 61%
HM - 60%
HSC - 62%
HSM - 61%

 

[IRfly]

They're gonna have a rough time manning staffs over the next decade or so with so few selected to O-4...

 

[azguy]

Does anyone have numbers over both of the two IZ looks? 70% sounds really grim - but I'd guess you get to at least the 80's over both looks.

 

[Hozer]

They're gonna have a rough time manning staffs over the next decade or so with so few selected to O-4...

Unless the Staffs go away...

 

[Pags]

Does anyone have numbers over both of the two IZ looks? 70% sounds really grim - but I'd guess you get to at least the 80's over both looks.

The precepts for both boards set the promotion percentage at 70%. Above Zone screen percentage is significantly lower; I don't know of a single guy who picked up O4 on their second look. SWOs promoted at ~80% during these years. I don't know if aviation had to give up bodies for the SWOs to keep the overall URL rate at 70%, but it sure looked that way.

 

[IRfly]

Unless the Staffs go away...

And the admirals' idiotic questions will answer themselves? Hardly...

 

[ProsNest1]

Promotion Planning 101...

The Navy runs a vacancy based promotion system. We will not promote more folks into a rank than there are projected losses out of that rank. There are also statutory guidelines that must be followed (DOPMA) in terms of opportunity (70%-90% for O-4) and flow point (average seniority of promoting group - 9.0-11.0 YCS for O-4). All of the URL promotes in the aggregate and we are pushing the right limit on flow point (becoming too senior). In order to move flow point back to the left - N1 needs to take a large chunk of folks (reaching into more junior groups) and promote less of them (at the 70%) in order to not exceed projected vacancies. All aviation promoted at 65.39% on the FY14 board (not that great). SWO/73%; SUBS/82%; SEALs/89%; EOD/75%. However, due to our larger size - we still promoted more O-4s than all of the other communities combined (55% of the total). That said - we should still get our fair share of the promotion opportunity (70% in this case). We could be disadvantaged by our large up-front time-to-train (all NOB FITREPS) and the fact we serve as DHs after O-4 selection (SWO/SUB are before). Don't leave anything to chance if you are up for O-4 - scrub your record and ensure all FITREPs have been entered - especially your HWM FITREPs.

 

[Jim123]

Promotion Planning 101...
The Navy runs a vacancy based promotion system...

... We could be disadvantaged by our large up-front time-to-train (all NOB FITREPS) and the fact we serve as DHs after O-4 selection (SWO/SUB are before). ...

This is a rather strange statement. It implies that the system might promote a SWO/SUB guy, with apparently superior leadership experience (due to a record of observed fitreps as an ENS/JG and having been a LT DH), into an O-4 vacancy left behind by an aviator.

 

[lowflier03]

Or perhaps its because pers is now only promoting Aviators to O-4 in numbers closer to DH spots available? (Whereas before it seemed like everyone got promoted and there were a plethora of O-4's that were never gonna make DH.)

 

[ProsNest1]

Vacancies aren't just based on discrete billet fills (13XX billets for aviation) - a large number of vancancies are also based on non-discrete coded bilets that can be filled by any URL (1050-coded) or any officer (1000-coded). Of note - though 1000-coded billets can be filled by any officer, URL is the only community that gets credit for these billets.

 

[ea6bflyr]

Vacancies aren't just based on discrete billet fills (13XX billets for aviation) - a large number of vancancies are also based on non-discrete coded bilets that can be filled by any URL (1050-coded) or any officer (1000-coded). Of note - though 1000-coded billets can be filled by any officer, URL is the only community that gets credit for these billets.

But 13XXs don't get promoted from filling 1050 or 1000 coded billets.....if that were true, we'd all have made Commander.