NATO Declares Russia an Enemy - Your take.

[Griz882]

The issue here is that Russian BTG’s (battalion task groups) rely heavily on a pre-established, internal insurgency. They had that for their earlier efforts in the Crimea and it shows. They insurgency was far warmer in the Donbas and there were substantial errors and operational slow-downs during the worse the fighting there. Since then the Ukrainians have improved their army but more importantly the Russians simply don’t have the insider support where they want to go. @Randy Daytona posted the great article about various strategic options and I wonder which the Russians might select?

 

[wink]

woops, I forgot the air quotes to indicate sarcasm.

Damn covid brain making me dumber than usual.

Hey, I got it.

 

[Randy Daytona]

The issue here is that Russian BTG’s (battalion task groups) rely heavily on a pre-established, internal insurgency. They had that for their earlier efforts in the Crimea and it shows. They insurgency was far warmer in the Donbas and there were substantial errors and operational slow-downs during the worse the fighting there. Since then the Ukrainians have improved their army but more importantly the Russians simply don’t have the insider support where they want to go. @Randy Daytona posted the great article about various strategic options and I wonder which the Russians might select?

Couple of other thoughts: I believe Samuel Huntington postulated in “Clash of the Civilizations” that Ukraine would eventually split along the Dnieper between a Western Catholic side and an Eastern Orthodox side. Wonder if that still holds?

Second, how much weight are the Russians giving last year’s conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the effect drones had on (earlier versions) of Russian mechanized formations?

 

[Flash]

Color me polyanna, but I don't think the Ukrainians will get rolled as quickly/easily as the media consensus seems to think. Hopefully their experiences of the past few years had them rethinking certain aspects and keep them nimble.

The overwhelming Russian superiority in combined arms, from missiles to aircraft, in addition to their numbers will likely prove overwhelming to the Ukrainians. They might have some successes here and there but overall I don't think they have much of a chance, even with the hard lessons they've learned they haven't had enough time, money or skill to implement many things they need to counter the Russians.

Couple of other thoughts: I believe Samuel Huntington postulated in “Clash of the Civilizations” that Ukraine would eventually split along the Dnieper between a Western Catholic side and an Eastern Orthodox side. Wonder if that still holds?

Second, how much weight are the Russians giving last year’s conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the effect drones had on (earlier versions) of Russian mechanized formations?

Take a look at the linguistic maps for Ukraine and that might be a good guide as to where the Russians might try and go if they invade, I don't know if they mirror the Christian sect maps.

One of the triggers for the latest escalation is Ukraine's use of a Turkish UAV, one of the same type Azerbaijan used so effectively against the Armenians, to strike Russian artillery last October. Russia might have seen the balance of military power in the border region starting to shift, ever so slightly, against them and it helped spur them to action.

 

[jmcquate]

I'm wondering what effect a Russian invasion would have on the future of Corporative Threat Reduction. Ukraine, under Nunn-Lugar, dismantled their nuclear arsenal, including strategic air assets. A Russian invasion may be treated as a example to other emerging nuclear powers to hold on to their new toys.

 

[Mos]

Interesting take from Peter Zeihan:

A Ukraine War and the End of Russia - Zeihan on Geopolitics

Demographics are at the core of what we do here at Zeihan on Geopolitics. More than just a count of population, demographic data--often expressed as a pyramid-shaped graph--can deliver a wealth of information about a society.

zeihan.com

"In 2010, Ukraine was not a country. It was simply a buffer territory between Russia and the European Union with no real identity, and it would have been ridiculous to admit such a non-entity into either the EU or NATO. Today Ukraine is a country, and the idea of EU or NATO membership isn’t nearly so crazy. And that evolution is all because of Putin’s ongoing miscalculations."

 

[Hotdogs]

Putin’s Diatribe on Ukraine

Interesting insight into Putin’s propaganda. Nothing like a solid revisionist doctrine to go along with the propaganda. How do you say your a Russian without saying your Russian?

 

[Randy Daytona]

Ian Bremmer’s take yesterday for those interested.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Interesting take from Peter Zeihan:

A Ukraine War and the End of Russia - Zeihan on Geopolitics

Demographics are at the core of what we do here at Zeihan on Geopolitics. More than just a count of population, demographic data--often expressed as a pyramid-shaped graph--can deliver a wealth of information about a society.

zeihan.com

"In 2010, Ukraine was not a country. It was simply a buffer territory between Russia and the European Union with no real identity, and it would have been ridiculous to admit such a non-entity into either the EU or NATO. Today Ukraine is a country, and the idea of EU or NATO membership isn’t nearly so crazy. And that evolution is all because of Putin’s ongoing miscalculations."

Another video from Dr. Zeihan. A little bit older, but the geography and demographic data is good.

 

[ChiccinTendies]

Am I just buying into my own interpretation or is this pretty clear what Putin is up to? He either wants and excuse to attack now-ish or a guarantee that he can get away with it when he attacks later at his leisure. We sure can't get mad when he takes what is obviously Russian and we didn't have anyone there anyway so mind out own business, right?

It's literally all about Ukraine joining NATO. Both sides are mostly bluffing, but as people mentioned before, Putin knows France and Germany need his gas and won't saction him this time. Another very large factor is Ukraine and Taiwan potentially stretching America thin

 

[ChiccinTendies]

Interesting take from Peter Zeihan:

A Ukraine War and the End of Russia - Zeihan on Geopolitics

Demographics are at the core of what we do here at Zeihan on Geopolitics. More than just a count of population, demographic data--often expressed as a pyramid-shaped graph--can deliver a wealth of information about a society.

zeihan.com

"In 2010, Ukraine was not a country. It was simply a buffer territory between Russia and the European Union with no real identity, and it would have been ridiculous to admit such a non-entity into either the EU or NATO. Today Ukraine is a country, and the idea of EU or NATO membership isn’t nearly so crazy. And that evolution is all because of Putin’s ongoing miscalculations."

Correct until the last sentence. Putin was backed into a corner, and frankly made the correct geopolitical moves. Ukraine is still not a part of NATO, and Syria is saved. I think the thing he needs to worry about the most long-term is his now-ally China becoming a future rival because it's obvious to anyone with half a brain that the West's decline is ramping up exponentially.

 

[Griz882]

Correct until the last sentence. Putin was backed into a corner, and frankly made the correct geopolitical moves. Ukraine is still a part of NATO, and Syria is saved. I think the thing he needs to worry about the most long-term is his now-ally China becoming a future rival because it's obvious to anyone with half a brain that the West's decline is ramping up exponentially.

This is a fairly idiotic comment. I have a feeling our old salon-socialist friend is back. Russia isn’t in a place where they need to worry about a single leg being kicked out from their stool….they are balancing on a single stick…gas. The US can out produce Russia in gas in about two months if production is ramped up and the Russian economy would collapse in about another two. Add to that the simple fact that China is not remotely an “ally” with Russia in any sense. China, while certainly a military peer in term of numbers simply is not in terms of experience. China has never…not once…successfully projected power under threat from a peer and while taking Taiwan is quite possible, it won’t be a matter of days and it won’t be easy. In fact, if China takes Taiwan it will mark the end of Xi’s rule (and likely that of the Communist party) simply because China created a monster they must feed…a Middle Class. Fighting Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, and probably most of SE Asia plus the U.S. will drain their artificial economy at a pace China can not afford.

As for the so-called “west,” it has been in “decline” since the concept was created in the minds of academics. It was never what we imagined and will simply no “go away.”

 

[ChiccinTendies]

This is a fairly idiotic comment. I have a feeling our old salon-socialist friend is back. Russia isn’t in a place where they need to worry about a single leg being kicked out from their stool….they are balancing on a single stick…gas. The US can out produce Russia in gas in about two months if production is ramped up and the Russian economy would collapse in about another two. Add to that the simple fact that China is not remotely an “ally” with Russia in any sense. China, while certainly a military peer in term of numbers simply is not in terms of experience. China has never…not once…successfully projected power under threat from a peer and while taking Taiwan is quite possible, it won’t be a matter of days and it won’t be easy. In fact, if China takes Taiwan it will mark the end of Xi’s rule (and likely that of the Communist party) simply because China created a monster they must feed…a Middle Class. Fighting Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, and probably most of SE Asia plus the U.S. will drain their artificial economy at a pace China can not afford.

As for the so-called “west,” it has been in “decline” since the concept was created in the minds of academics. It was never what we imagined and will simply no “go away.”

The fact that you think Russia is still socialist or aims to be socialist, and that anything you disagree with is somehow a far left position isn't surprising. I just realized that this place really isn't worth my time anymore. Keep watching XYZ news and their internet subsidiaries. Keep thinking Libya is better off after 2011, that Assad chemical attacked his own citizens for no reason, that there were WMDs in Iraq, that the "moderate rebels" that the CIA armed and funded didn't go on to become ISIS leadership, and that the beauty of this nation is that everyone can express their views, even people who believe a child can be trans and put on hormone blockers, or that honest Christians should be put in prison. I'm sure some of you guys are alright, and I wish you all the best, but I'm done. Goodbye.

 

[Mos]

The fact that you think Russia is still socialist or aims to be socialist, and that anything you disagree with is somehow a far left position isn't surprising. I just realized that this place really isn't worth my time anymore. Keep watching XYZ news and their internet subsidiaries. Keep thinking Libya is better off after 2011, that Assad chemical attacked his own citizens for no reason, that there were WMDs in Iraq, that the "moderate rebels" that the CIA armed and funded didn't go on to become ISIS leadership, and that the beauty of this nation is that everyone can express their views, even people who believe a child can be trans and put on hormone blockers, or that honest Christians should be put in prison. I'm sure some of you guys are alright, and I wish you all the best, but I'm done. Goodbye.

K bye.

 

[Griz882]

The fact that you think Russia is still socialist or aims to be socialist, and that anything you disagree with is somehow a far left position isn't surprising. I just realized that this place really isn't worth my time anymore. Keep watching XYZ news and their internet subsidiaries. Keep thinking Libya is better off after 2011, that Assad chemical attacked his own citizens for no reason, that there were WMDs in Iraq, that the "moderate rebels" that the CIA armed and funded didn't go on to become ISIS leadership, and that the beauty of this nation is that everyone can express their views, even people who believe a child can be trans and put on hormone blockers, or that honest Christians should be put in prison. I'm sure some of you guys are alright, and I wish you all the best, but I'm done. Goodbye.

I’ll quote…directly…your “About Post” from your profile: “My childhood dream up until recently was to be a US Navy fighter pilot. Then I realized I was in denial about what could politely be called Western imperialism and ideology. I'm probably done with this forum.” Lad, you are not in denial, you are simply under-educated. Still, I’ll just say what @Mos said…”K bye.”