• Please take a moment and update your account profile. If you have an updated account profile with basic information on why you are on Air Warriors it will help other people respond to your posts. How do you update your profile you ask?

    Go here:

    Edit Account Details and Profile

NEWS If War Comes, Will the U.S. Navy Be Prepared?

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
OK, on to some serious stuff. I agree with many of the points made here, especially with @DanMa1156. Plotting a course to the future isn't easy and I'll add that the existing fleet is quite strong enough to buy us time and space in order to ultimately make war with any peer or near-peer competitor.

Surely it has been said before, but it is pretty damning when sailors say stuff like this...“Many sailors found their leadership distracted, captive to bureaucratic excess, and rewarded for the successful execution of administrative functions” rather than core competencies of war." Is this a reflection of contemporary officer training, or the contemporary officer career track? I know I am not an expert on the "golden path" or the inner workings of promotion boards, but I keep circling around to the idea that our next naval RMA needs to be a change in how a naval career works.

I have noted on other threads that I am big proponent of a very robust naval reserve capable of filling a combatant roles just as the National Guard does. If nothing else, the navy should be ashamed of how they let the reserves slide. As for a career, it should be more simple...basically "Do - Teach - Do - Procure/Plan - Command" in four year cycles. First tour "Do" your job at the apprentice level - second tour "Teach" others about the job - third tour "Do" you job at the journeyman level - fourth tour "Procure" the right gear for your mission or develop "Plans" to do it (master level) - fifth tour - "Command" the ultimate "Do" of a naval career. From this basis flag officer can be selected because in truth flags need to do one of two things...procure the right stuff or command at sea. The are a host of duties that could be shifted to a more robust naval reserve. Keep in mind, this is just a spit-ball idea.

Outside of that, realistic training to deployment cycles with maintenance scheduled both for short term and serious yard time. Shifting "older" (but not necessarily obsolete) ships to the USNR for lighter use would take a lot of pressure off the existing fleet structure and creating a a system similar to the "miltech" for the USNR would aid manning. I know @Brett327 disagrees that the same can be done with TACAIR but I believe it can (or so the Air Force Guard & Reserve seems too).

Of course the real issue we always readily miss - budgetary restraint. Keeping an old but still effective Tico Class CG in the reserves isn't actually a savings even if it is cheaper than building a new one especially when you want both. The ball really rests with Congress although I still think the flag officer set need to focus in on a comprehensive "one navy" plan. They might have one and if so they are doing a great job of keeping it under wraps.
 

nodropinufaka

Well-Known Member
@nodropinufaka can you post your bio so folks can have a better understanding of your professional credentials and experience?
if I tell can I have one of those cool flairs?

Corpsman E-4 2005-2009. 1 year Iraq deployment.
Navy Intel Officer 2011- 2019
DEA Senior Intelligence analyst overseas (GS-13) 2019-2020
China Researcher for academic think tank 2020-Present.

Mods can verify me if they agree to give me a flair.

I don’t know why everyone seems to imagine that every single conflict is going to play out exactly how they imagine it.

Cyber is a very real threat and wars can end before they begin. So is bio weapons.

There’s a large amount of research showing that wars don’t need to be force on force engagements anymore and legitimate worries they don’t play out that way. China is different with world economies intertwined with theirs.

And no where did I post that it wasn’t going to be but simply that there is a possibility it doesn’t happen that way.

I’m happy to have that discussion but seems everyone got their egos in the way that it is going to play out exactly how they trained for.

And I get it. If I trained my entire adult life to be ready and someone was telling me I may be irrelevant in the next conflict- it’d be hard to accept and i see how it could rub someone the wrong way.

OPLANS only really work if the adversary is behaving rationally and what you asses they’re going to do.

Look back at history
Pearl Harbor- senior officers said it wont happen. Then it did.

Korean War- Thought it would be a quick easy conflict and over fast- until China crossed the Yalu river and drove UN forces back. No one thought that would happen.

Iraq- remember the senior leadership stating “Mission Accomplished” and then a bunch of insurgents effectively stopped the army by IEDs and the psychological warfare they caused? No one saw that coming either.

My entire point is no one knows how it’s going to play out. There is a large amount of research stating China may want to just force negotiations enough to get their concessions and move on. What is their desired end state? Like I said- we don’t know. Only they do. And whatever they stated is very likely just public saber rattling. Do they want an all out war or just enough conflict to get recognized as a world super power?

it’s impossible to state that the war won’t happen this way or won’t happen this way which is exactly what @Brett327 is claiming.

At a basic level example imagine a street fight. Both dudes standing there ready to throw fisticuffs and expecting it to be punching. Then one dude winds up a kick and blasts the dude in the nuts. Said dude who got kicked is now on the ground wheezing and in pain and may not get up easily and may call it quits.
 

Python

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
What is, specifically... and quantify its effect on the force's ability to wage an effective campaign vs. China. It's just such a tired trope people casually throw out there without any real analysis. I can only speak to my experiences in TACAIR for 21 years, but with maybe 1 or 2 exceptions, I don't know a Skipper, past or present, who isn't laser-focused on being the best, most combat effective squadron they can muster. I have yet to meet a CO who would prefer GMT to flying and training for the high end fight.

I agree with most of your points in this thread. But in my Tacair experience I have seen multiple senior leaders that do fit the trope to a T: take no risks to satisfy “zero defect” and be a yes man to their bosses. I believe you haven’t seen it. But it’s there, and you either didn’t see it because you legitimately didn’t come across it, or your perspective has led you to be biased against seeing it.
 

Jim123

DD-214 in hand and I'm gonna party like it's 1998
pilot
Sure...but I'll fly the Kessel Run in under 12 parsecs before I leave.
About that... might want to check the carfax, there was a recall on the hyperdrive but aftermarket mods will void the warranty.


This is exactly the kind of peace and order that counterinsurgency scholars talk about when they say people need to believe in the rule of law if prosperity and commerce is ever to replace illegal black markets and corruption.
 

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
Pearl Harbor- senior officers said it wont happen. Then it did.
What senior officer? Indeed, there was a lot of dissent over moving the Pacific to Pearl leading to the relief of Richardson. Kimmel pushed hard to have what we might call "expeditionary" bases placed at Wake and Midway and was the guy who reinforced Midway before Pearl. I think you are confusing the acts of local leaders with "senior" leadership.
Korean War- Thought it would be a quick easy conflict and over fast- until China crossed the Yalu river and drove UN forces back. No one thought that would happen.
Again, you are using the thoughts of one person, MacArthur, to channel your notions. Literally everyone that wasn't a MacArthur stooge said the Chinese were coming. Indeed, O.P. Smith bore the ire of that worst of generals, Ned Almond, to keep the 1st MARDIV consolidated thus effectively saving X Corps. Read "The Coldest Winter" and learn something.
Iraq- remember the senior leadership stating “Mission Accomplished” and then a bunch of insurgents effectively stopped the army by IEDs and the psychological warfare they caused? No one saw that coming either.
Once more...TOTAL bull shit! You are equating political grandstanding with ground truths. I was in Iraq in 2003 and I can assure you that IEDs were popping up well before the famous S-3 flight. Moreover, the army was never "stopped." In truth, the army met and defeated multiple insurgent rises, each in turn from Ba'athists to Nationalists, to Salifi, Shia, and on. Yes, the area was in constant turmoil because each party tried to rise up to replace the last (and assume national power) but the Iraqi government still stands and the ISI is a dead letter despite substantial Iranian interference. Is the place perfect...no. It is far better off...absolutely.

This is the kind of stuff that makes people question your bona fides. I mean it isn't opposing analysis, it is just off the wall and disregards entire arcs of history. Maybe it is youth, but I am quite certain that many senior level thinkers are well aware of China's cyber and bio capacity and I can assure you NO ONE is planning an invasion of China...we don't need to do that to win.
 
Last edited:

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
About that... might want to check the carfax, there was a recall on the hyperdrive but aftermarket mods will void the warranty.


This is exactly the kind of peace and order that counterinsurgency scholars talk about when they say people need to believe in the rule of law if prosperity and commerce is ever to replace illegal black markets and corruption.
Fuck it....I'm going to the SHOW!
31605
 

nodropinufaka

Well-Known Member
What senior officer? Indeed, there was a lot of dissent over moving the Pacific to Pearl leading to the relief of Richardson. Kimmel pushed hard to have what we might call "expeditionary" bases placed at Wake and Midway and was the guy who reinforced Midway before Pearl. I think you are confusing the acts of local leaders with "senior" leadership.

Again, you are using the thoughts of one person, MacArthur, to channel your notions. Literally everyone that wasn't a MacArthur stooge said the Chinese were coming. Indeed, O.P. Smith bore the ire of that worst of generals, Ned Almond, to keep the 1st MARDIV consolidated thus effectively saving X Corps. Read "The Coldest Winter" and learn something.

Once more...TOTAL bull shit! You are equating political grandstanding with ground truths. I was in Iraq in 2003 and I can assure you that IEDs were popping up well before the famous S-3 flight. Moreover, the army was never "stopped." In truth, the army met and defeated multiple insurgent rises, each in turn from Ba'athists to Nationalists, to Salifi, Shia, and on. Yes, the area was in constant turmoil because each party tried to rise up to replace the last (and assume national power) but the Iraqi government still stands and the ISI is a dead letter despite substantial Iranian interference. Is the place perfect...no. It is far better off...absolutely.

This is the kind of stuff that makes people question your bona fides. I mean it isn't opposing analysis, it is just off the wall and disregards entire arcs of history. Maybe it is youth, but I am quite certain that many senior level thinkers are well aware of China's cyber and bio capacity and I can assure you NO ONE is planning an invasion of China...we don't need to do that to win.

Its not arcs of history. Those things happened and there’s studies regarding exactly how and why they happened. There are multiple academic papers out there on these subjects for a reason.


And nowhere did I say no one understood cyber. I made a point to say that no one knows how the next conflict will be.

can you say with certainty how the next conflict is going to be? No.
 

Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
I agree with most of your points in this thread. But in my Tacair experience I have seen multiple senior leaders that do fit the trope to a T: take no risks to satisfy “zero defect” and be a yes man to their bosses. I believe you haven’t seen it. But it’s there, and you either didn’t see it because you legitimately didn’t come across it, or your perspective has led you to be biased against seeing it.
Completely fair. It no doubt does exist (I even mentioned two exceptions to my general observation), but I think it's relatively rare, and absolutely not the primary reason we're less prepared than we could be for MCO w/ China.
 

Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
can you say with certainty how the next conflict is going to be?
Nobody in this discussion ever made that claim. You are the one who introduced terms like "100%" and "certainty." Obviously, we deal in probabilities. Obviously, there will be action across multiple domains, like subsurface, cyber and space. Nobody ever said that the CSG's will be the only player. We prepare for the most likely scenario, which is force on force with our CSGs. I don't understand why this is controversial for you.
 

nittany03

Recovering NFO. Herder of Programmers.
pilot
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
I’m happy to have that discussion but seems everyone got their egos in the way that it is going to play out exactly how they trained for.

And I get it. If I trained my entire adult life to be ready and someone was telling me I may be irrelevant in the next conflict- it’d be hard to accept and i see how it could rub someone the wrong way.
Passive aggressive condescension doesn’t help your cause, and neither does subtly claiming the people who disagree with you are reacting emotionally as opposed to just, you know, disagreeing with you.

OPLANS only really work if the adversary is behaving rationally and what you asses they’re going to do . . .

At a basic level example imagine a street fight. Both dudes standing there ready to throw fisticuffs and expecting it to be punching. Then one dude winds up a kick and blasts the dude in the nuts. Said dude who got kicked is now on the ground wheezing and in pain and may not get up easily and may call it quits.
If you’re blindly fighting your initial OPLAN much longer after the fur starts flying, your 5 and 35 shops should be fired.
 

nodropinufaka

Well-Known Member
Nobody in this discussion ever made that claim. You are the one who introduced terms like "100%" and "certainty." Obviously, we deal in probabilities. Obviously, there will be action across multiple domains, like subsurface, cyber and space. Nobody ever said that the CSG's will be the only player. We prepare for the most likely scenario, which is force on force with our CSGs. I don't understand why this is controversial for you.
Your exact words when I said that there is a possibility that no TACIAIR involvement- "you must not know much about OPLANS".

To which I pointed out- that doesn't matter and no one knows how China is going to act.

And you also pointed out:

"This is an absurd statement. We're still talking about China, right? This isn't going to be an asymmetric COIN fight.

The more you post, the more it's clear to me that you don't have the experience to be a meaningful part of this discussion."

Again- how do you know? You don't. There is a thousand scenarios where it could play out exactly like that. Is a limited war in TWN with a Chinese occupying force completely unrealistic? No. or Korea? or a failed state such as Burma?.

And like I said- I work as a researcher on China at an academic think tank. You didn't even know what my experience is but decided to go for that instead of responding to the points.

Did I say anywhere that Force on Force with CSGs was not going to happen? Again, no.
 

nodropinufaka

Well-Known Member
Passive aggressive condescension doesn’t help your cause, and neither does subtly claiming the people who disagree with you are reacting emotionally as opposed to just, you know, disagreeing with you.


If you’re blindly fighting your initial OPLAN much longer after the fur starts flying, your 5 and 35 shops should be fired.
Fair. But instead of debating my initial points they started attacking my credentials as if I am making things up.
 
Top