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How about that North Korea?

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
...

The thing that is different here from many of the other recent conflicts is that this issue didn't just spring up. This one has been looked at, and then re-looked at, and then looked at again.
More like ignored, played off, disregarded and rationalized. Darn right it is a hard problem. That is why everyone did all they good to avoid facing it on their watch. Iran is not North Korea for a number of reasons and that is why letting Iran get to the point of a list of shitty choices like NK is now is so egregious .
 

hscs

Registered User
pilot
It is my definition of a wicked problem -

- Rogue nation with regime intent on survival and will use all means to do so (minority report - we thought the same about Saddam, but the rest makes this problem enormous)
- Viable, massive threat to civilian population of one of the world's largest cities (who also happens to be our ally)
- Nearby regional power that is trying to expand its influence that would not be comfortable with a unified Korea, modeled upon ROK (OBTW we fought them on the last go around, and they are equally committed to survival of their regime)
- Said regional power's economic growth has been slipping lately and debt levels rising (which indirectly threatens its regime survival)- trade with NK may be seen as a necessity to sustain China's economy
- If a fight comes, we have loose nuke, chem, bio not to mention an arms trader's dream of an Dshk, 10 landmines, and an SA-7 for every household in the world
- If a fight doesn't come, we cannot seem to stem the tide of weapons development and the crazies eventually get the ability to threaten everyone with nukes.

Conventional thinking will not solve this.
 

hscs

Registered User
pilot
There's a lot of rational analysis of NK goals and motivations based on western factors. Are these the same factors that will motivate the NORKs? How do more eastern notions such as honor and loss of face on the international stage play in to this?
Honor an eastern notion -think some old Greek guy identified honor early on as a Western reason for fighting
 

Pags

N/A
pilot
Honor an eastern notion -think some old Greek guy identified honor early on as a Western reason for fighting
True, but not one that tends to be the focus of modern open source western analysis. We often talk a lot about economic factors but that's not always the only factor that may motivate potential foes. I'm sure there are people who have spent careers wiring to understand the motivations of the NORKs but that's not what comes out in the news.

We've failed to understand how others can interpret sanctions in the past. Economic sanctions against the Japanese were a major factor in their decision to go to war against the US. It was not well understood at the time as to how the Japanese interpreted the sanctions.
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
...Iran is not North Korea for a number of reasons and that is why letting Iran get to the point of a list of shitty choices like NK is now is so egregious .

Eh?

...We've failed to understand how others can interpret sanctions in the past. Economic sanctions against the Japanese were a major factor in their decision to go to war against the US. It was not well understood at the time as to how the Japanese interpreted the sanctions.

It bothers me that Japanese nationalists still point to this as causing Japan to go to war with the US, it is sort of like blaming the US for recently deteriorated relations with Russia. The embargo by the British, US and Dutch (the Japanese were most concerned about oil after all) was merely one of the final (of many) straws that led to the almost inevitable clash between the Allies and the Empire of Japan.
 

Hair Warrior

Well-Known Member
Contributor
Economic sanctions against the Japanese were a major factor in their decision to go to war against the US. It was not well understood at the time as to how the Japanese interpreted the sanctions.
Correct me if I'm wrong here: In 1941, Allied sanctions against Japan created a situation where Japan's oil-needy war machine was cut off from oil supply routes (for a country with no domestic production), thereby giving Japan X days of oil reserves left before reaching zero barrels, no?
 

Pags

N/A
pilot
Correct me if I'm wrong here: In 1941, Allied sanctions against Japan created a situation where Japan's oil-needy war machine was cut off from oil supply routes (for a country with no domestic production), thereby giving Japan X days of oil reserves left before reaching zero barrels, no?
Pretty much. The oil embargo was put in place by the ABCD nations due to Japanes militarism in China and French Indochina. After the embargo Japan saw its choices as:. Economic collapse, expand the scope of the war to access oil in n the Dutch east indies, or to give in to the demands of the sanctions and give up their territorial gains in China and Indochina. Japan and her militaristic government felt that giving up their gains in China was an unacceptable loss of face so they began planning to expand the war. Their decision to expand the war was based on an assumption that the western allies were weak and that the resultant conflict would be a limited war and that they could quickly negotiate a peace after their initial victories.
 

jmcquate

Well-Known Member
Contributor
I wonder if the thousands and thousands of American families in S Korea share this same sentiment.
The families would be sent home well before things could get sporty, and the folks serving over there aren't on a government funded vacation.
This one has been looked at, and then re-looked at, and then looked at again.
So, doesn't mean they're right. If the shooting starts, no one was right. The North wants a deliverable nuke to maintain it's existence. When that's threatened to a point ( no one knows that point, except the chubby kid with the bad haircut) they may strike first. That's why Trump has to calm the fuck down, and talk to the pros across the Potomac before tweeting brimstone and hell fire.
 

Recovering LSO

Suck Less
pilot
Contributor
The North wants a deliverable nuke to maintain it's existence. When that's threatened to a point ( no one knows that point, except the chubby kid with the bad haircut) they may strike first. That's why Trump has to calm the fuck down, and talk to the pros across the Potomac before tweeting brimstone and hell fire.
And herein lies the rub, at least in my pea-brained estimation: if we believe he wants deliverable nukes to ensure his existence, how does that square with the high probability that using them would terminate his existence? I don't see this as the MAD dilemma between former USSR and US where each had/has large enough stockpile(s) for subsequent second, third, etc strikes. I believe that if he lets one fly, he's done.
 

pilot_man

Ex-Rhino driver
pilot
The families would be sent home well before things could get sporty, and the folks serving over there aren't on a government funded vacation.

The families being sent home part may or may not be true. KJU isn't the most level headed leader and the process of moving the family members out of the country isn't a quick one. And who's to say what nK will do when they see the process begin? There are a lot of families with nK artillery sights on them right now.

While they might not be on a government funded vacation that doesn't mean we throw their lives away. The Korean war 1 cost us around 35,000 US service members lives. A Korean war 2 will be just as horrific. And you can't just do a couple precision strikes because KJU is fucking crazy. These assholes have been sinking ships and shooting artillery at S Korea even without provocations. What will they do if we send a couple of TLAMs down range?

So, doesn't mean they're right. If the shooting starts, no one was right. The north wants a deliverable nuke to maintain it's existence. When that's threatened to a point ( no one knows that point, except the chubby kid with the bad haircut) they may strike first. That's why Trump has to calm the fuck down, and talk to the pros across the Potomac before tweeting brimstone and hell fire.

I don't know what you are saying here. I was talking about the fact the a crisis in Korea has been looked at from a military standpoint for many, many years. We have plans in place. I agree that POTUS needs to relax a bit with his rhetoric. It's like he is stooping to KJU's level and we don't need that with the crazies in the north.
 

Mr. Blonde

My ass is a motherfuckin' champion
pilot
I don't get why everyone in the news media is calling it/ acrynomizing it "NOKO"

It’s part of what gives a revitalized area like this its charm that the hipsters like

tumblr_nviq5pFI6w1r4o9xho1_r1_1280.jpg
 

nittany03

Recovering NFO. Herder of Programmers.
pilot
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
I don't get why everyone in the news media is calling it/ acrynomizing it "NOKO"
It's like every other time the news media adopts an "official" term that they think gives them an air of credibility. Like when some talking head said Hillary had a "homebrew" server, and from then on, that was the Official Media Term for it. Like they thought it was official computer science jargon that made them look smart.

Contrast that with people using actual official terminology which has a specific professional meaning . . . like "mishap" or "rules of engagement." Then watch the reporters bust out the scare quotes and "so-calleds." Because obviously they're to be trusted like Ed Murrow and Walter Cronkite, but we're just trying to hide something.
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
I don't get why everyone in the news media is calling it/ acrynomizing it "NOKO"

Laziness and old/young folks. It is a lot easier to type out than North Korea and easier to understand for many than DPRK, it is also shorter so you can make the font bigger on the chyrons for old folks and have an abbreviation for the millennials to understand.
 
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