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Europe under extreme duress

sevenhelmet

Low calorie attack from the Heartland
pilot
Zeihan over-reduces complex topics so that material can be squeezed into digestible youtube segments and when Zeihan makes predictions and they don't come to fruition, he simply alters his premise..."well, we didn't account for..."

Zeihan and Grossman should be viewed with the usual healthy skepticism. But good for them, making a living I guess.

An effect of our "TL;DR" culture is a lot of nuance gets lost.
 

WhiskeySierra6

Well-Known Member
pilot
Zeihan over-reduces complex topics so that material can be squeezed into digestible youtube segments and when Zeihan makes predictions and they don't come to fruition, he simply alters his premise..."well, we didn't account for..."

Zeihan and Grossman should be viewed with the usual healthy skepticism. But good for them, making a living I guess.
He's written four fairly in depth books between 2014 and 2022 with, in my opinion, rigorously derived conclusions. Of course his 5-10 minute videos are BLUFish. Just because he doesn't show his work doesn't mean his conclusions are oversimplified. No one is perfect and when he doesn't get it right he, at least, admits it and offers why he thinks he didn't which is more than I can say for most.
 

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
"And now we begin our first Presidential debate. Senator So-and-So, the war between Russia and Ukraine is one of the major pressing matters in geopolitics at the moment. Some argue the war is at a stalemate while others argue we need to give the Ukrainian offensive more time. There is the issue of whether we are drawing down the stocks of our own munitions too much in our efforts to supply Ukraine. There is also the issue of whether Ukraine should be permitted to join NATO now and why or why not. I would like to ask, if you are elected, what will your administration do differently to handle this situation and these issues than the current one one? You have 90 seconds to respond."
 

Mirage

Well-Known Member
pilot

NATO and Ukraine both broadcasting that Ukraine will join as soon as the war is over? Seems like a guaranteed way to convince Russia to drag the war out for as long as possible.
 

sevenhelmet

Low calorie attack from the Heartland
pilot
I’m not so sure. IMO, some of the best discussion and analysis these days are on long form podcasts.
I’ve made the same observation, along with reading well-written, appropriately cited books. The nice thing is a lot of great podcasts are free. The not-so-nice thing is there is a lot of shit out there that has to occasionally be sorted through.

I resent the notion that I need to pay a monthly subscription to get “the best information”. In a democracy, that seems detrimental, particularly when what is open source from the same outlets is often so clearly biased, poorly written, or just plain wrong.
 

Uncle Fester

Robot Pimp
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
I'll put in another plug for ISW on this topic. They don't paywall (though they do solicit donations), they show their work for their assessments and conclusions, and if their assessments turn out to be incorrect, they will say so and try to analyze why. They also generate "tidy without being oversimplified" executive summaries daily in addition to more in-depth analysis. They published an outstanding piece not too long ago on why the Russian missile campaign in Ukraine hasn't paid any real dividends considering the investment, and another on Chinese preparations for urban warfare in Taiwan.
 

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
I’ve made the same observation, along with reading well-written, appropriately cited books. The nice thing is a lot of great podcasts are free. The not-so-nice thing is there is a lot of shit out there that has to occasionally be sorted through.

I resent the notion that I need to pay a monthly subscription to get “the best information”. In a democracy, that seems detrimental, particularly when what is open source from the same outlets is often so clearly biased, poorly written, or just plain wrong.
Well yeah, but media/news companies need to make money somehow, right?
 

sevenhelmet

Low calorie attack from the Heartland
pilot
Well yeah, but media/news companies need to make money somehow, right?
Just like all businesses, yes. However, organizations who rely on divisive tactics and clickbait are far less likely to make a subscriber out of me than someone selling a good old fashioned newspaper, magazine, or book. Particularly so when we’re in a subscription-saturated economy, and reading time can be a precious commodity.

This is a bit of a threadjack, but I still like to purchase (gasp) physical periodicals, especially when I travel. I like the “one and done” nature of those, rather than a subscription I might find interesting for a week and then forget about (but I’m still paying, so the business doesn’t care). Then maybe 6 months later I pick it up again, or cancel when I realize I’ve been paying the bill the whole time.
 

taxi1

Well-Known Member
pilot
It never occurred to me that folks would be vacationing in Crimea still. After the bridge damage, saw this...

Monday’s bridge attack, in the middle of the summer vacation season, brings the war home to Russians, many of whom are oblivious about the impact of Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians. Thousand of Russians have been queuing in cars in recent weeks to cross the bridge for vacation in Crimea, with the line eight miles long at one point this month.
and
The alternative route Russian authorities offered to tourists and visitors stuck on the Crimean Peninsula following the blast on the Kerch bridge passes through occupied eastern Ukrainian territories and recently attacked infrastructure sites.

The route along the “land bridge” connecting annexed Crimea to mainland Russia via partially occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions was established by the Russian military during last year’s hostilities. Disruption of the land bridge is one of the primary goals of the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive.

With the Kerch bridge in the south of the peninsula blocked, travelers would have to head north, where the Crimean peninsula connects to Kherson via the Chonhar bridge, which was fixed just a few days ago after it was hit by what Russian authorities claimed to be the Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles in late June.

 

Uncle Fester

Robot Pimp
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
It never occurred to me that folks would be vacationing in Crimea still.
You'd think so, but going somewhere 'safe' for vacation is more an American thing. The French in particular are notorious for vacationing anywhere. That people would spend their own money to spend a holiday in Djibouti was fascinating to me. Then again, Americans are still going to Tijuana, so.

Crimea is apparently very pleasant when it isn't, you know, an active war zone. Mild, dry, and pleasant summers, nice beaches, sort of like SoCal or the Spanish Med coast.
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
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nittany03

Recovering NFO. Herder of Programmers.
pilot
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Coming across my LinkedIn feed today . . . a Twitter (X?) thread from a Ukrainian doing training with the US in Germany.


The next day we were supposed to have zeroing and shooting. Lining up at 5am this time. We gather with full combat equipment, line up and find out that shooting starts at 9am. We continue realizing that creating schedules is not a strong feature of Americans.
There's strong, and then there's Army strong . . . ?
 
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