I with you, Chuck.
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Europe under extreme duress
- Thread starter Randy Daytona
- Start date
Do you really believe that if “Putin and his gang meet their maker”, Russia will be magically open to the world again? The RF and former USSR would suddenly become… Norway? That things won’t be made worse over there by whomever is conniving and radical enough to replace him?
I think this is all proceeding as intended, to keep Putin in a quagmire of his own making. The devil you know, and all that.
I feel like we tried that before and it worked out… not so great. Several times.
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Random8145
Registered User
The problem with this analogy is Norway is only about eight million people and they're mostly all the same ethnicity. Up the population by 10/20/30/40x, add in a whole slew of additional cultures/languages/religions/ethnicities/etc...and you find your country is far more difficult to govern. So Russia would not be able to just become another Norway and comparing most larger population liberal democracies to Norway isn't really proper. Also, turning a country like Russia into a modern liberal democracy would require the following:
Population that understands human rights
Properly designed and secure banking system
Financial system
Good quality infrastructure
Good education system
Well-developed legal system
Well-developed free enterprise economy (needs all of the above)
...and other things I am forgetting.
It's comforting to see almost everyone here agree it would be irrational to play roulette with the future of humanity by going to war with Russia.
Interestingly, those who argue Russia will attack NATO next are arguing that Russia does not share that fear of nuclear war... Which runs counter to the decision making of the USSR/modern Russia for their entire existence, as well as basic rationality.
Interestingly, those who argue Russia will attack NATO next are arguing that Russia does not share that fear of nuclear war... Which runs counter to the decision making of the USSR/modern Russia for their entire existence, as well as basic rationality.
Random8145
Registered User
The (Western) Europeans might calculate that letting the Baltics fall into Russian hands would be an acceptable loss versus letting nukes start flying. Best to remain strong and keep the Russians weak so we don't have to find out. Putin I don't believe thought there was any nuclear threat. He said after Ukraine he was going to advance into the Baltics.
Attacking a NATO Ally and hoping the security guarantee isn't upheld and the Alliance collapses, rather than you end up at war with multiple countries with nukes... Sounds like roulette with the future of humanity to me.
Do you have a source for the quote he said he was invading the Baltics next?
Random8145
Registered User
Nope, because I just realized it was Putin's ex-PM who said that, not Putin himself, so my mistake and I stand corrected there.
I mean, old guys have a lot of time to use their imaginations and also yell at clouds. I feel like my 87 year old father does some of this. Chuck, blink twice if you need a cribbage buddy but don’t know how to ask
vxc961
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Not an artilleryman, but as a NGLO…they’re very effective against trenches since one round covers so much more area. Each barrel also has a lifespan (2,000 rds?), so it keeps the guns on the field longer.
I was a dirty reservist NGLO and it was years ago…I’m curious what reporting you saw that said they’d be ineffective against trenches and why? I’m certainly no expert and could be wrong.
Random8145
Registered User
One criticism I would make is that he oversimplifies the issue of our manufacturing base and economy. We focus on high value stuff, yes, but not just really, really high value, like designing microprocessors and space stations. We also manufacture an enormous amount of high-value goods. We shipped production of low value, low margin manufacturing like shoes, clothes, toys, various ordinary consumer products, and so forth, primarily overseas. BUT, the United States has nonetheless remained one of the top manufacturing nations in the world. Until 2010, we were the largest manufacturing nation in the world, but China has since surpassed us. Currently, China accounts for 28.7% of global manufacturing, while the United States accounts for 16.8%, the second largest.
A lot of people seem to think we only manufacture cars and trucks, jumbo jets, and various high-tech military stuff like tanks, nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and so forth, but that otherwise, everything else is made in China and our economy is just service-based. After all, every product you look at in any store you go into is made elsewhere it seems.
But the reality is that we are a manufacturing powerhouse, we just manufacture tons of stuff that most people don't know exists, all sorts of advanced industrial and infrastructure components and machines. For example, the machine shop I work in produces a lot of components for gear production machines (as in you know, mechanical gears, which themselves go into all manner of things). Well gears require specialized machinery to make them, and those have special components. They also make components for forklifts, medical equipment, pump components, and for awhile ice cream machines. These are all things that undergird our society and economy but not things you will find in any Wal-Mart or Target store.
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Zeihan over-reduces complex topics so that material can be squeezed into digestible youtube segments and when Zeihan makes predictions and they don't come to fruition, he simply alters his premise..."well, we didn't account for..."
Zeihan and Grossman should be viewed with the usual healthy skepticism. But good for them, making a living I guess.
Zeihan and Grossman should be viewed with the usual healthy skepticism. But good for them, making a living I guess.