Europe under extreme duress

[Hotdogs]

To be frank I really don't think there is a much more the Ukrainians can do with a just a squadron or two's worth of very short-legged air defense fighter that is well over 30 years old. They aren't going to gain anything near air superiority over the Russians and they could much better use ground attack aircraft, manned or unmanned, than a fighter with very minimal air to ground capability (if any) on a plane with half the range of a Hornet.

In all fairness given the lack of precision weapons, significant air defense presence (Both Russian and Ukrainian), nebulous C2, potential IFF issues, lack of EW, and apparent reliance on day time sorties by both sides. I don’t think either side getting more aircraft is going to make a significant impact on the war. Regardless of the role/TMS of the FW, RW, attack or fighter aircraft. SU-25s, Mi-24/28s, and KA-52s have been taking face shots at the cyclic rate since the start of the war.

Ukraine would be better off getting HIMARS w/ ATACMS, more drones, advanced targeting/intelligence support, or hand packable loitering munitions. Lots of COTS and industry solutions already available for all of these options.

 

[Flash]

In all fairness given the lack of precision weapons, significant air defense presence (Both Russian and Ukrainian), nebulous C2, potential IFF issues, lack of EW, and apparent reliance on day time sorties by both sides. I don’t think either side getting more aircraft is going to make a significant impact on the war. Regardless of the role/TMS of the FW, RW, attack or fighter aircraft. SU-25s, Mi-24/28s, and KA-52s have been taking face shots at the cyclic rate since the start of the war.

I think the Russians utilizing more aircraft would make a big difference, if they knew how to use them. As we have already discussed though they may not be capable of doing that basic task.

Ukraine would be better off getting HIMARS w/ ATACMS, more drones, advanced targeting/intelligence support, or hand packable loitering munitions. Lots of COTS and industry solutions already available for all of these options.

I think HIMARS/ATACMS might be seen as escalatory as they could be used to strike Russia itself, and they already have a rough equivalent in the SS-21. But it is those simpler, cheaper and less 'flashy' things that could have a far bigger impact than a squadron's worth of fighters.

 

[Randy Daytona]

It has been a united response by the West over Russia - I have doubts that Europe (for that matter, US corporations) will be united when there is a similar crisis in the Pacific over Taiwan.

One possible outcome is a bifurcation of the world as China, Russia, and others want to insulate themselves from the dollar as a reserve currency and the ability of western sanctions to disrupt their economies.

On a separate note, I saw that Richard Engel (NBC News chief foreign affairs correspondent) as well as numerous other reporters and politicians- across the political spectrum- have brought up a no fly zone in Ukraine, some have mentioned a direct airstrike on Russian armored convoys. As someone who lived through the first Cold War, it would probably end up like this:

Saw an observation that of the 10 most populous nations, only the US has imposed sanctions on Russia.

In separate news, first Saudi and the UAE wouldn’t take President Biden’s calls, now Saudi and China are discussing ditching the dollar and trading oil based on the yuan.

WSJ News Exclusive | Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales

Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price its oil sales to China in yuan, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would dent the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia.

www.wsj.com

 

[Griz882]

Saw an observation that of the 10 most populous nations, only the US has imposed sanctions on Russia.

In separate news, first Saudi and the UAE wouldn’t take President Biden’s calls, now Saudi and China are discussing ditching the dollar and trading oil based on the yuan.

WSJ News Exclusive | Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales

Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price its oil sales to China in yuan, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would dent the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia.

www.wsj.com

Interesting…I imagine that this would be a disaster for China. Their economy is already grinding to a halt and the only reason the yuan has any value is because it is tied up in dollars. Still, it is clear that the Saudi’s see right through Biden’s “pump for us” scheme knowing that the taps will be cut off as soon as things calm down. In all earnestness, it is time the US actually got to actual energy independence. Certainly buying and selling to keep a hand in the global market is a positive thing, but the ability to pivot to self-sustainability should be little more than flipping a switch.

 

[Griz882]

Mark your calendar’s…this may be the day they note when people say…”This was the day the NATO alliance started to unravel.”

Ukraine will not join Nato, says Zelenskiy, as shelling of Kyiv continues

Ukrainian president’s statement comes as three EU leaders arrive in city to express solidarity amid heavy bombardment

www.theguardian.com

OK..maybe not, but the Eastern European members are certainly getting the feeling that “their” NATO might not be “our” NATO.

 

[jmcquate]

Our NATO may not be "our NATO".................that's why the Brits and the French have their own nukes.

 

[insanebikerboy]

, if they knew how to use them.

Hell, that argument could be used for everything the Russians are doing!

 

[MIDNJAC]

Saw an observation that of the 10 most populous nations, only the US has imposed sanctions on Russia.

In separate news, first Saudi and the UAE wouldn’t take President Biden’s calls, now Saudi and China are discussing ditching the dollar and trading oil based on the yuan.

WSJ News Exclusive | Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales

Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price its oil sales to China in yuan, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would dent the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia.

www.wsj.com

Cool, time to address some unfinished business over 9/11 then....

 

[sevenhelmet]

Interesting…I imagine that this would be a disaster for China. Their economy is already grinding to a halt and the only reason the yuan has any value is because it is tied up in dollars. Still, it is clear that the Saudi’s see right through Biden’s “pump for us” scheme knowing that the taps will be cut off as soon as things calm down. In all earnestness, it is time the US actually got to actual energy independence. Certainly buying and selling to keep a hand in the global market is a positive thing, but the ability to pivot to self-sustainability should be little more than flipping a switch.

American energy independence is long overdue. We have the ability to produce enough oil to sustain ourselves, but aren't our refineries set up for Saudi oil? That's not a trivial change, from what little I've heard about the refining business. I'd be happy to be wrong though- it would make the process easier.

 

[Griz882]

American energy independence is long overdue. We have the ability to produce enough oil to sustain ourselves, but aren't our refineries set up for Saudi oil? That's not a trivial change, from what little I've heard about the refining business. I'd be happy to be wrong though- it would make the process easier.

I’m hardly the go-to guy for petroleum science ? and I believe you are right, but I do know we have the scientific, technological, and engineering capability to make the change. The question is the will power. If I were King of Murica I’d do it now while we are already in the suck. And it is not just oil. Lots more nuclear with solar and wind as support/backup and far distribution systems.

 

[taxi1]

If I were King of Murica I’d do it now while we are already in the suck. And it is not just oil. Lots more nuclear with solar and wind as support/backup and far distribution systems.

But then gas prices will go up and Americans will complain.

The only real way to move the behavior needle is through pricing, but if you make a move to influence people through higher prices when there is a way to keep them low, it is a political loser. That leaves subsidies for the new tech you want them to move to.

Better mileage and more efficiency is like having cheaper gas.

I remember a bunch of years ago when I saw high $4 gas, thinking it was going to be over $5 and we'd never see cheap gas again. Boy, was I wrong then.

 

[wink]

But then gas prices will go up and Americans will complain.

True. And the opposing party would make noise. But if a real leader had a long term energy policy and made the argument that refitting refineries as well as the other costs of an investment plan like nuke, solar, tidal, etc had strategic pay back with more stable moderate prices in the future, it could be politically survivable.

 

[Flash]

Saw an observation that of the 10 most populous nations, only the US has imposed sanctions on Russia.

At least 7 of the top 10 economies have though, that is what matters when it comes to economic sanctions.

In separate news, first Saudi and the UAE wouldn’t take President Biden’s calls, now Saudi and China are discussing ditching the dollar and trading oil based on the yuan.

First, screw 'em. Second, good luck.

Mark your calendar’s…this may be the day they note when people say…”This was the day the NATO alliance started to unravel.”

That's...premature, at the very least.

OK..maybe not, but the Eastern European members are certainly getting the feeling that “their” NATO might not be “our” NATO.

I'm sure the thousands of troops NATO has deployed to Eastern Europe the last few months and utter lack of support to Ukraine prior to and during the war has done nothing to reassure them. At all.

P.S. /s, in case you missed it.

 

[sevenhelmet]

True. And the opposing party would make noise. But if a real leader had a long term energy policy and made the argument that refitting refineries as well as the other costs of an investment plan like nuke, solar, tidal, etc had strategic pay back with more stable moderate prices in the future, it could be politically survivable.

You'd like to think so, certainly. I'm just not convinced there's appetite for that kind of long-term thinking in our current political environment.

 

[Flash]

American energy independence is long overdue. We have the ability to produce enough oil to sustain ourselves, but aren't our refineries set up for Saudi oil? That's not a trivial change, from what little I've heard about the refining business. I'd be happy to be wrong though- it would make the process easier.

It's a great idea but it still would not disconnect us from international market-determined oil prices and the resultant gas prices at the pump.

True. And the opposing party would make noise. But if a real leader had a long term energy policy and made the argument that refitting refineries as well as the other costs of an investment plan like nuke, solar, tidal, etc had strategic pay back with more stable moderate prices in the future, it could be politically survivable.

Refineries owned by oil companies making healthy profits who let the market determine their investment strategies. And again, it would not move the needle on oil prices.