Energy Discussion

[taxi1]

So, in a very far (unimaginable) future when an enlightened USA has moved beyond fossil fuels for domestic energy production, will the government have crushed the entire fossil fuel extraction business and associated industries because they are evil, or will they be able to continue producing oil and export it to other countries?

Petroleum has lifted billions of people out of poverty conditions. Millions still in poverty require oil derived energy and products to better their lives.

Petroleum will be the next firewood, which was once a mainstay of energy production.

...but I would presume that any breakthroughs in energy would spread fairly rapidly throughout most of the world.

Cellphones in many ways took off in places that didn't already have an infrastructure to be replaced. The "most of the world" may well be where the changes lead out.

 

[wink]

I think incentives like those in the 'Inflation Reduction Act' recently passed are much more preferable but sometimes government mandates are needed. Can they be mismanaged and misguided? Sure, but they aren't inherently bad.

Not to parse words too much, but if something is not inherently bad, but is mismanaged or misguided, the result is bad. And actually bad in fact is what matters. No points for being well intended when spending my tax dollars. Under the misguided column I put economic incentives to buy EVs when there is a waiting list to buy one.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Cellphones in many ways took off in places that didn't already have an infrastructure to be replaced. The "most of the world" may well be where the changes lead out.

I am not sure that renewables will have either the solar or wind intensity for many parts of the world, much less be able to afford sufficient battery storage for 24/7 electric power - which leads back to coal for many parts of the world trying to bring electricity to their populations.

One of the other items that I heard was that the upfront costs of renewables are substantially more than conventional power plants - as long as interest rates were low, the math worked out. However as interest rates continue to rise and rise, it puts renewables at a greater disadvantage.

Finally, most of the processing for rare earth metals lies within China. Many have advocated free trade and buying everything from China, but even Paul Krugman is coming around to factoring in national security concerns.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/26/opinion/russia-ukraine-oil-gas-prices.html

 

[exNavyOffRec]

One of the other items that I heard was that the upfront costs of renewables are substantially more than conventional power plants - as long as interest rates were low, the math worked out. However as interest rates continue to rise and rise, it puts renewables at a greater disadvantage.

This jives with what a long term friend of mine was talking about, he lives in the UK and is part of a business that builds solar and wind projects across Europe, he was looking at leaving until the Russia situation and now the UK and other countries are offering good subsidies to build renewable energy projects.

They plan and build the project then sell it off right away, he said they want no part in the long term operation due to no real plan when the lifespan is reached on the panels and wind turbines.

 

[Flash]

One of the other items that I heard was that the upfront costs of renewables are substantially more than conventional power plants - as long as interest rates were low, the math worked out. However as interest rates continue to rise and rise, it puts renewables at a greater disadvantage.

You heard? That's....specific.

An advantage of renewables is you don't have to worry about about paying for the source unlike fossil fuels which have their own price swings due to war, corruption, politics and enforced scarcity among others.

 

[ABMD]

Meanwhile in Europe...




The large (2BCF/day) drop in June was from the Freeport LNG facility in TX going offline. Pushing 2bcf/day of gas back into domestic markets (US priced plummeted) taking that much gas off the international market (European price spiked).

IMO, domestic prices won't return to pre-2022 prices until their is some serious talk about the long-term handling of the Russia/Ukraine war (specifically regime change with a pro-West/Europe leadership).

Quick natural gas futures price graph for reference, Jan 2010 - April 2023

 

[ABMD]

Petroleum will be the next firewood, which was once a mainstay of energy production.

Speaking of firewood…

Germany turning to firewood for home heating this winter.

Orange man bad called this 4 years ago.

 

[ABMD]

They are the only source capable of meeting the world's energy needs because we built the current system based on using them to do just that. I don't think we are getting rid of fossil fuels any time soon but I like that we are trying to move away from them with better efficiencies, along with alternative and renewable energy sources.

What most people don't understand is when it comes to electric generation, there needs to be a stable and reliable source of baseload generation. You are only getting that from 1 of 2 sources, Nuclear or fossil fuels. Renewables are too intermittent (this include hydro, CAISO has seen a 27% decrease in Hydro output over the last 2 days meanwhile demand has soared) to fill that role. There is a place in the generation stack for all sources, but if people are serious about carbon emissions and the fears of its environmental impact there needs to be A.) a serious discussion about building new nuclear, B.) continued advances in efficiencies with fossil fuels and hybrid systems.

*rant, if global leaders and celebrities are serious about global climate change/global warming/climate change why are they buying $12M waterfront homes? Continuing to jet set around the globe on private jets and vacation on their carbon belching mega yachts?

If sea level rise is a real concern, why by a house that is a few hundred yards from the water?

 

[Flash]

Orange man bad called this 4 years ago.

Wow, how astute. Of course President Bush said the same thing 15 years ago, President Obama 8 years ago and even President Reagan all the way back in the 1981, 41 years ago. Of course part of his solution was to announce in 2020 we were pulling a third of our troops out of Germany because...reasons?

 

[taxi1]

What most people don't understand is when it comes to electric generation, there needs to be a stable and reliable source of baseload generation. You are only getting that from 1 of 2 sources

Storage is the third. Storage is everything.

 

[ABMD]

Storage is the third. Storage is everything.

I meant to include batteries (storage) we just aren't there yet plus that comes with it's own challenges (thermal management).

 

[sevenhelmet]

Storage is the third. Storage is everything.

Storage is difficult, expensive, and involves losses. It also presupposes you can generate more power than the grid requires at least some of the time. That's not possible to do with renewables alone- there is still a very large base load that needs to be supplied.

I have concerns about the environmental impacts of attempting to supply the base load with wind, solar, and hydro. While those sources have their place, I just don't believe we can reasonably build enough of those three to supply current and future energy demands. There's a point where the impacts (e.g. manufacturing, mining, and installation) will exceed the benefits, and may even cause more negative environmental impact than the equivalent in nuclear and gas electric powerplants.

 

[taxi1]

Storage is difficult, expensive, and involves losses. It also presupposes you can generate more power than the grid requires at least some of the time.

The grid has more power generation capacity than the grid requires most of the time. It is sized for the peak power requirement.

Storage solves some critical problems with nuclear and fossil before you even consider renewables, and has gotten a lot of attention for that reason alone. It really enables renewables, but you don't need renewables to justify it.

Some interesting technologies to address it...

ARPA-E's DAYS Program | Duration Addition to electricitY Storage

If successful, DAYS projects will provide new forms of long-duration stationary electricity storage systems that enhance grid resiliency, provide low-cost energy capacity, support grid infrastructure, and enable a greater share of intermittent renewable resources in the generation mix.

arpa-e.energy.gov

 

[Brett327]

Couple of points…

While unique in geography, WA state has the highest capacity hydro enterprise in the country, and its very reliable.
Storage isn’t limited to batteries. Grand Coulee uses excess capacity to pump water upstream to Banks Lake during off-peak use, then uses that potential energy to augment during peak use. A similar, though much smaller system is being built here in Kauai, but with solar, pumping water uphill during the day to generate power at night.

Finally, if I can brag on my installation for a moment, the Navy partnered with the Kauai electric utilities to build a 20 megawatt solar PV farm on Navy land at PMRF, which went operational this summer. The base has first dibs on the PV power if normal service is interrupted. Last week, we ran 100% of our base electric demand off of our PV system for about 7 hours when a power line went down off base. Pretty cool.

 

[ABMD]

Couple of points…

While unique in geography, WA state has the highest capacity hydro enterprise in the country, and its very reliable.
Storage isn’t limited to batteries. Grand Coulee uses excess capacity to pump water upstream to Banks Lake during off-peak use, then uses that potential energy to augment during peak use. A similar, though much smaller system is being built here in Kauai, but with solar, pumping water uphill during the day to generate power at night.

Finally, if I can brag on my installation for a moment, the Navy partnered with the Kauai electric utilities to build a 20 megawatt solar PV farm on Navy land at PMRF, which went operational this summer. The base has first dibs on the PV power if normal service is interrupted. Last week, we ran 100% of our base electric demand off of our PV system for about 7 hours when a power line went down off base. Pretty cool.

Pumped storage is a great resource where it’s available (my former employer owns/operates one in PA). Unfortunately, there are lots of hurdles in building new pumped storage, like the expense and land acquisition.

Years ago I interviewed for a solar company that had a contract to build utility-scale solar on military installations. I believe they were on every base in NC at the time.