COVID-19

[taxi1]

It’s not actually a travel ban, it’s a 14 day quarantine for people arriving from those states. Texas and Florida both had something similar but it is strange that California didn’t make the list.

The Positive Test Rate (PTR) appears to be a key discriminator. The limit they set is over 10%, which is exceeded by the banned states. I don't know what California's is.

When the PTR is high, then you know you aren't testing enough and that there are many, many more infected than what your test results show.

 

[wink]

It’s not actually a travel ban, it’s a 14 day quarantine for people arriving from those states. Texas and Florida both had something similar but it is strange that California didn’t make the list.

The part about “we worked hard to get our transmission rate down and don’t want to see it go up” is rich. Cuomo bragging about reducing transmission rate is like a firefighter arriving late to a burnt down house and bragging that the fire’s out.

And Cuomo had the balls to call out the Governor of AZ for "opening too soon" when he was at the helm of unmitigated disaster. NY was the worse case everyone wanted to avoid. Now he is lecturing. AZ did have a 14 day quarantine for folks coming in from NY/NJ at the height of their case load, but it was voluntary and there was no threat of fines or arrest. Basically just signs at the airport. Cuomo is threatening real enforcement.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

The Positive Test Rate (PTR) appears to be a key discriminator. The limit they set is over 10%, which is exceeded by the banned states. I don't know what California's is.

When the PTR is high, then you know you aren't testing enough and that there are many, many more infected than what your test results show.

There’s probably some truth to that but California has double the deaths per million of Texas, and both are on very similar case trajectories

 

[wink]

The Positive Test Rate (PTR) appears to be a key discriminator. The limit they set is over 10%, which is exceeded by the banned states. I don't know what California's is.

When the PTR is high, then you know you aren't testing enough and that there are many, many more infected than what your test results show.

When you are principally testing only those with symptoms as good public health allocation of resources, as in my state, you are going to see a higher PTR. So what is the value of the number if I can just go out and test that part of the population not prone to the virus and having no symptoms?

 

[taxi1]

When you are principally testing only those with symptoms as good public health allocation of resources, as in my state, you are going to see a higher PTR. So what is the value of the number if I can just go out and test that part of the population not prone to the virus and having no symptoms?

Only testing those with symptoms, especially with this virus where a lot of people are asymptomatic but contagious, is horrible policy. It's like the joke about the drunk who is only looking for his car keys below the streetlight.

It's Epidemiology 101 that you random sample from the population.

Great article if you have access.

How the Virus Won (Published 2021)

Invisible outbreaks sprang up everywhere. The United States ignored the warning signs. We reconstructed how the epidemic spun out of control.

www.nytimes.com

 

[taxi1]

There’s probably some truth to that but California has double the deaths per million of Texas, and both are on very similar case trajectories

We had travel scheduled to San Diego for some workers here, but the facility we were going to has locked back down this week based on the surge. I'm expecting outgoing travel restrictions to places like CA and FL to pop up on our end also.

 

[wink]

Only testing those with symptoms, especially with this virus where a lot of people are asymptomatic but contagious, is horrible policy. It's like the joke about the drunk who is only looking for his car keys below the streetlight.

It's Epidemiology 101 that you random sample from the population.

OK, if you are a data geek maybe. If you want to write a book about the transmission of COVID 19, fine. Or its the public health department trying to assemble numbers for the next briefing. But if you are concerned that those that need help get it asap, which reduces likelihood of hospitalization, and you have limited resources in personnel and test kits, I think prioritizing symptomatic folks makes sense. If you are asymptomatic by definition you don't need hospitalization and likely no help at all.

 

[Hair Warrior]

It’s not actually a travel ban, it’s a 14 day quarantine for people arriving from those states. Texas and Florida both had something similar but it is strange that California didn’t make the list.

The part about “we worked hard to get our transmission rate down and don’t want to see it go up” is rich. Cuomo bragging about reducing transmission rate is like a firefighter arriving late to a burnt down house and bragging that the fire’s out.

I wonder where NY, NJ, and CT think they get their beef, pork, fruit, vegetables, gasoline, propane, etc. What if a truck driver wants to go hop in the Atlantic for a swim after hauling X from wherever. She’s going to get fined $1k for not quarantining?

 

[PhrogLoop]

If you are asymptomatic by definition you don't need hospitalization and likely no help at all.

Contact tracing and quarantine come to mind

 

[taxi1]

OK, if you are a data geek maybe. If you want to write a book about the transmission of COVID 19, fine. Or its the public health department trying to assemble numbers for the next briefing. But if you are concerned that those that need help get it asap, which reduces likelihood of hospitalization, and you have limited resources in personnel and test kits, I think prioritizing symptomatic folks makes sense. If you are asymptomatic by definition you don't need hospitalization and likely no help at all.

I agree with you, in the sense that you use testing to figure out how to treat the guy or gal coming in the door. They definitely need access to tests, first in line.

Once you think of the entire population as the patient, then you need to be sampling broadly. We "flew blind" during the early stages of the pandemic and let it get out of hand. How do you control what you don't measure?

When we only had 15 cases going to zero back in March, that wasn't actually the case. But we were rationing tests and had no clue what reality was. Too late on the lockdowns, which resulted in far longer lockdowns than would have been needed. We suffered for it.

 

[taxi1]

 

[Pags]

I wonder where NY, NJ, and CT think they get their beef, pork, fruit, vegetables, gasoline, propane, etc. What if a truck driver wants to go hop in the Atlantic for a swim after hauling X from wherever. She’s going to get fined $1k for not quarantining?

I'm sure there are different restrictions for logistics than Joe Six Pack to address supply chain. The problem isn't someone parking their truck and the beach and going for a dip. The problem is people driving in and going to social events.

 

[FrankTheTank]

I'm sure there are different restrictions for logistics than Joe Six Pack to address supply chain. The problem isn't someone parking their truck and the beach and going for a dip. The problem is people driving in and going to social events.

I have a problem with this.. It’s ok to bus/fly in folks to protest but somebody can’t come in to attend a funeral, wedding, etc.... The politics of this whole Virus is utter crap!

 

[Gonzo08]

Houston is expecting to exceed intensive care capacity today. They're saying they have <10 days before they reach surge capacity. It's unfortunate that this could have potentially been avoided if this had been taken seriously from the beginning.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

Houston is expecting to exceed intensive care capacity today. They're saying they have <10 days before they reach surge capacity. It's unfortunate that this could have potentially been avoided if this had been taken seriously from the beginning.

Texas never should have locked down when it did. Officials lost all credibility.