COVID-19

[taxi1]

@taxi1 I know we’d talked about the Scandinavian countries earlier in the thread; here’s a pretty interesting video if you have a spare 35 minutes. My sister is married to a Swede and she lives there with her family. It’s been interesting to get her first-hand perspective.

That’s a good video with good arguments.

I think out of concern and a desire to not get sick, when we lift the lock down, people will naturally follow the Sweden model, stay home more, avoid crowds naturally. It will slowly, with low dosing, work it’s way through. Knock on wood.

We are living like that in my town right now mostly, but that’s because we sent 25,000 college students home.

With testing for infection and antibodies, we’d be ready to do a lot more right now (he notes we don’t have testing...that leaves us flying blind). Without it, it is going to be messy. I would love to know if I’ve already had, have it, or am in waiting. Huge impact on what I would do each day.

 

[Hair Warrior]

All you died in the wool Trumpers/Conservatives should be worried about potential implications from this virus long term and what sort of questions it might bring up about the need for increased social safety nets, medical coverage, etc. Seems like a ripe conversation and we should be concerned about lots of out of work hungry people with sick family members.

I am not a dyed-in-the-wool Republican, but I have a lot of South Park-ish libertarian tendencies.

BLUF*: The flip side of that "need for increased social safety nets" coin is we need to take a serious look at government red tape vs. liberties.

There are currently a sh*t tons of regulations preventing someone from opening up a barber shop in their garage to help earn extra money if they are out of work. First, the barber shops are all closed by governors' orders. Second, there is probably some sort of license and inspection process to get approval, which isn't happening these days. Why can't that out-of-work barber shave a few heads to make an extra $50 or so a day to make ends meet, without worrying he/she might lose their barber license if discovered?

Okay, yes it could lead to accidental unsanitary conditions for customers, it's not great for social distancing right now, and it's maybe not enough money to replace a full time job and solve the root problem of un-/under-employment, but let the man or woman work and let their customers decide the risk. People are resourceful. They will find a way to survive. A lady in my neighborhood started making masks with colorful fabric patterns and selling them at $15 a pop, incl. delivery within 5 miles; she said she is selling about 10x masks per day and it takes her about 5-6 minutes per mask to manufacture and raw materials are about $3 per mask.

When I was a kid in the early 80's, you could take a case of candy bars (for boy scouts or little league baseball) to the 4H Fair or sell them door-to-door without getting thrown out or accosted by some local official. These days, we have cities and counties shutting down front yard lemonade stands for lack of a permit. I sort of get the whole craze around "SaFeTy!?>!?" e.g. using government's apparatus to protect diners against rats/mold in restaurants, but in many other areas I actually don't get it, and see this as the civic version of wearing a reflector belt just to run on a 800m track.

*because apparently we need a BLUF on AW.com now

 

[Spekkio]

BLUF*: The flip side of that "need for increased social safety nets" coin is we need to take a serious look at government red tape vs. liberties.

There are currently a sh*t tons of regulations preventing someone from opening up a barber shop in their garage to help earn extra money if they are out of work.

You're attacking the symptoms, not the cause. The issue isn't that Mr Smith can't run his barber business out of his garage; the issue is that over the last month our political leadership was not laser focused on developing a plan on how we could safely allow him to open shop (eg masks, extra sanitation guidance, etc). He should have been able to do that 1-2 weeks ago.

We implemented a bunch of very conservative policies to limit the spread of coronavirus. That was supposed to buy time to understand the real impact and spend resources to increase healthcare capacity.

It was supposed to be about ensuring that our health care system could handle treating everyone who needed treatment. It was never about preventing people from ever getting COVID-19, but now the goal posts have shifted.

Here we are a month later and nothing has really changed. We've now just normalized all these heightened and cumbersome public health risk mitigation measures. We issued a stop movement in DOD to allow commands to implement risk mitigation measures to allow movement (which we've done via 14 day ROM after a PCS), but suddenly that's not good enough. Jerk around more families and extend it at the last possible second.

The data is showing more and more that the vast majority of the country save some urban areas could 'open' on May 1 (or never had to shut down in the first place) and stay within healthcare capacity. For example, NYC is being hit hard, but schools north of Westchester could open. Wear masks. Stagger lunch times or spread kids out into the gym. It can be done.

Yea, more people will get sick. Some will die. That's an unavoidable risk we take anytime we go into public, and it's never going away. If you're not comfortable with it, feel free to stay home. As long as there is a clinic or hospital available to give treatment, it's a risk we need to take to get on with life. That's why it's called operational risk management, not operational risk avoidance.

 

[SlickAg]

You're attacking the symptoms, not the cause. The issue isn't that Mr Smith can't run his barber business out of his garage; the issue is that over the last month our political leadership was not laser focused on developing a plan on how we could safely allow him to open shop (eg masks, extra sanitation guidance, etc). He should have been able to do that 1-2 weeks ago.

We implemented a bunch of very conservative policies to limit the spread of coronavirus. That was supposed to buy time to understand the real impact and spend resources to increase healthcare capacity.

It was supposed to be about ensuring that our health care system could handle treating everyone who needed treatment. It was never about preventing people from ever getting COVID-19, but now the goal posts have shifted.

Here we are a month later and nothing has really changed. We've now just normalized all these heightened and cumbersome public health risk mitigation measures. We issued a stop movement in DOD to allow commands to implement risk mitigation measures to allow movement (which we've done via 14 day ROM after a PCS), but suddenly that's not good enough. Jerk around more families and extend it at the last possible second.

The data is showing more and more that the vast majority of the country save some urban areas could 'open' on May 1 and stay within healthcare capacity. For example, NYC is being hit hard, but schools north of Westchester could open. Wear masks. Stagger lunch times or spread kids out into the gym. It can be done.

Yea, more people will get sick. Some will die. That's an unavoidable risk we take anytime we go into public, and it's never going away. If you're not comfortable with it, feel free to stay home. As long as there is a clinic or hospital available to give treatment, it's a risk we need to take to get on with life. That's why it's called operational risk management, not operational risk avoidance.

I feel like we’ve entered the twilight zone here.

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

 

[Spekkio]

I feel like we’ve entered the twilight zone here.

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

I've been on the fatalism side of the issue throughout. Diseases spread, and there's not a whole lot we can do about it.

 

[taxi1]

If the use of antibodies from a recovered person works, I wonder if I could catch it from someone on purpose, wait a week, then get the antibodies to kick the virus in the crotch and keep it down to a simmer, and recover with my own antibodies which have come along too.

This guy has an argument about variolation, which is kind of what we will do naturally when we start interacting again.

Variolation (+ Isolation) May Cut Covid19 Deaths 3-30X

(Here I try to put my recent arguments together into an integrated essay, suitable for recommending to others.) When facing a new pandemic, the biggest win is to end it fast, so that few ever suffer. This prize makes it well worth trying hard to trace, test, and isolate those near the first few...

www.overcomingbias.com

 

[Hair Warrior]

The issue isn't that Mr Smith can't run his barber business out of his garage; the issue is that over the last month our political leadership was not laser focused on developing a plan on how we could safely allow him to open shop (eg masks, extra sanitation guidance, etc).

You are missing my point. More government “guidance” is not the answer.

Your solution does not work if Bob, Terrell, Linda, or Yvonne are primarily staff in a hotel, or a kids indoor playplace, or wherever else is shut down, but they also happen to know how to give haircuts. There is no amount of government “guidance” on coronavirus that allows them to quickly and simply start a completely new and different business that they can operate at home, be it haircuts or a breakfast taco delivery service or something else. People would face $500+ fines, jail, or worse. We need less red tape everywhere and in all aspects of life.

Don’t even get me started on the crap idea of using smartphone geolocation to track US coronavirus cases and the people they contact. This is a big brother program nobody wants.

 

[Spekkio]

You are missing my point. More government “guidance” is not the answer.

Your solution does not work if Bob, Terrell, Linda, or Yvonne are primarily staff in a hotel, or a kids indoor playplace, or wherever else is shut down, but they also happen to know how to give haircuts.

You're missing the point. Those regulations exist so that we as consumers know for a fact that the person can give haircuts and shaves, and will follow health guidelines so that we don't get AIDS from a dirty razor blade (and if they don't follow those guidelines, we can hold them accountable).

I know how to cook and I do it well. I don't know all of the sanitation rules about running a commercial kitchen, nor has anyone validated that my house meets all those guidelines. The majority of consumers don't want to spend hours researching food illness rates for a joint every time we go out to eat.

Those indoor play places and hotels should also be open for business in most geolocations by now, making this a moot point.

 

[taxi1]

Don’t even get me started on the crap idea of using smartphone geolocation to track US coronavirus cases and the people they contact. This is a big brother program nobody wants.

We had a worker on a trip walk off. Thinking he might be suicidal (he’s fine) we contacted the police. Their ability to work with the phone company and create a time history of where he was and when, was amazing. The info is there right now.

 

[SlickAg]

I've been on the fatalism side of the issue throughout. Diseases spread, and there's not a whole lot we can do about it.

My big gripe is the moving of the goalposts. We achieved the stated goal of not overwhelming the health care system. Now we‘re waiting for a vaccine? Or until there’s zero deaths?

Close nursing homes to visitors, and protect the vulnerable by keeping them at home.

 

[Ken_gone_flying]

I would love to know if I’ve already had, have it, or am in waiting. Huge impact on what I would do each day.

Unfortunately, even if you’ve already had it, they have no idea how long the antibodies make you immune.

 

[Hair Warrior]

We had a worker on a trip walk off. Thinking he might be suicidal (he’s fine) we contacted the police. Their ability to work with the phone company and create a time history of where he was and when, was amazing. The info is there right now.

The technology absolutely exists today. The police either need a warrant or probable cause.

But extending “probable cause” to an open nationwide people-tracking capability - which would very quickly encompass everyone... thanks Kevin Bacon - isn’t just a slippery slope, it’s the bottom of the cliff.

If you need another reason than that, it could very quickly undermine and ruin a number of classified national security programs that have taken years and billions to build.

 

[taxi1]

It’s just that your argument about big brother rings a bit hollow since the ability exists now. I’d use the app in my town, as long as I could turn it off or remove it.

 

[taxi1]

Unfortunately, even if you’ve already had it, they have no idea how long the antibodies make you immune.

If they work at all, I could harvest them and stick them in the freezer (at the doctor’s) for the day when I’ve stopped making them, to beat down an infection. Rinse and repeat until a vaccine.

 

[Jim123]

It’s just that your argument about big brother rings a bit hollow since the ability exists now. I’d use the app in my town, as long as I could turn it off or remove it.

Ford came out the other day describing some company wristbands for people to wear at work. (Ford the car company.) They buzz like a fitbit if two of them get too close to each other. There's some technical details to work out and of course how to implement the whole program in a production line environment. I thought the idea neatly sidesteps privacy issues. You throw it in the bin on your way out the door and you pick up a clean one when you clock in the next morning. I think the system could easily track and trace who got close to whom in the workplace, which would still provide valuable medical and epidemiological data without being a big brother 24/7.