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COVID-19

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Anyone seen Type I/Type II error rates for the COVID tests? I imagine the general public doesn't realize most of these tests are far from 100% accurate.
Personal/home tests are coming soon. I see the point. Not exposing health care folks, greater coverage, less expense, etc. But I was told the swab of the nose is required to go way deep into sinuses. Most medical types with experience in this type of test say it simply can not be done with any reliability by an armature, let alone self administration. The false negative rate will likely skyrocket and waste lab resources.
 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
So, you're saying COVID-19 testing is like acoustic "screening" with dipping helos?

"We know the sub (virus) isn't in that water column (person) right now, but we have no idea where it might be in a few minutes (days)."
Reminds me of a not completely facetious cold war VS tactic for safe transit of a CV. War Hoovers ranging out on PIM dropping B-57s and the CV steaming at flank speed from one smoking hole to the next. No idea where the sub is, but it ain't anywhere near where you just detonated a thermonuclear device. ?☠
 

exNavyOffRec

Well-Known Member
All the mathematical models and projections I've seen fail to account for some variable or another,
That is the frustrating part, and what is causing people to freak out, that and people only hear half of what is being said in any briefing.

There was one model that it looks has since been removed, that showed if WA started with complete lock down about a week ago we would still have a few thousand people hospitalized with coronavirus, currently there are just over 2K infected in WA. It is nuts how off some of these are.
 

sevenhelmet

Low calorie attack from the Heartland
pilot

Reminds me of a not completely facetious cold war VS tactic for safe transit of a CV. War Hoovers ranging out on PIM dropping B-57s and the CV steaming at flank speed from one smoking hole to the next. No idea where the sub is, but it ain't anywhere near where you just detonated a thermonuclear device. ?☠

Fuck that.
 

Jim123

DD-214 in hand and I'm gonna party like it's 1998
pilot
Damn DuffelBlog!!

 

Gonzo08

*1. Gangbar Off
None
Personally, I’ve got enough beer from the brewery I volunteer at to last me until the zombies come, so no complaints here.
TYFYS

Anyone seen Type I/Type II error rates for the COVID tests? I imagine the general public doesn't realize most of these tests are far from 100% accurate.
If I understood correctly, my flight doc today said in our DH meeting that there's a 25% misdiagnosis rate for the test (at least the ones the base is using).
 

IKE

Nerd Whirler
pilot
TYFYS


If I understood correctly, my flight doc today said in our DH meeting that there's a 25% misdiagnosis rate for the test (at least the ones the base is using).
Any test should have both Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) probabilities. Often the sensitivity of the test is adjusted to strike the right balance. If the chance of death once infected is high, you might want to fail towards more false positives. If the cure is risky (major surgery, chemo, etc.), you might be more averse to Type II errors.

The same thinking is used to tune most ASE to ensure threats are almost always detected while not false alarming so much pilots quit listening. Same is done with GPWS/TAWS.
 

Gonzo08

*1. Gangbar Off
None
Any test should have both Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) probabilities. Often the sensitivity of the test is adjusted to strike the right balance. If the chance of death once infected is high, you might want to fail towards more false positives. If the cure is risky (major surgery, chemo, etc.), you might be more averse to Type II errors.

The same thinking is used to tune most ASE to ensure threats are almost always detected while not false alarming so much pilots quit listening. Same is done with GPWS/TAWS.
He mentioned both "false positives" and "false negatives" and the number he threw out was 25%.

So...??‍♂️
 

IKE

Nerd Whirler
pilot
He mentioned both "false positives" and "false negatives" and the number he threw out was 25%.

So...??‍♂️
It's possible the two errors are equal. I don't know the nature of the test. It's also possible, but weird, that the number quoted is the rate of all errors (I + II) across all test results. Also, ?‍♂️
 

TimeBomb

Noise, vibration and harshness
The currently deployed tests are based on detecting viral nucleic acid. I haven't been able to find sensitivity or specificity info on line, but I have seen gripes about the lack of that information in the open literature, so maybe it isn't just me. The FDA literature says that the tests have been designed to minimize the false positive rate, suggesting the cutoff values favor specificity (i.e. true positives).

The currently available test doesn't help much with defining the epidemiology, since it is truly a snapshot. A negative test cannot discriminate between someone who is unexposed and uninfected, an asymptomatic infected person early or late in the infection, whose viral load is below the cutoff for a positive test, and a person who has been infected and recovered. Tests that measure antibody formation can give you information regarding that group of asymptomatic but infected patients. I haven't seen anything currently available that uses serology for Coronavirus testing.

There are a couple glaring problems with mass testing as implemented. As the test seems to be biased toward true positives, it isn't a great screening test. Another big problem is there isn't a clearly defined effective treatment, so diagnosing the disease doesn't give you all that much actionable intelligence. Once a treatment becomes available, mass testing with an adjustment of the test characteristics or methodology has a place. Finally, a negative test may lend a false sense of security, again as the available test appears to be weighted away from sensitivity, and that viral RNA may be present, but below the test cutoff, and could be either rising or falling depending on where in the course of the illness the patient may be. Oh, and the test takes 48-72 hours to yield results.

V/R
 

FinkUFreaky

Well-Known Member
pilot
The currently deployed tests are based on detecting viral nucleic acid. I haven't been able to find sensitivity or specificity info on line, but I have seen gripes about the lack of that information in the open literature, so maybe it isn't just me. The FDA literature says that the tests have been designed to minimize the false positive rate, suggesting the cutoff values favor specificity (i.e. true positives).

The currently available test doesn't help much with defining the epidemiology, since it is truly a snapshot. A negative test cannot discriminate between someone who is unexposed and uninfected, an asymptomatic infected person early or late in the infection, whose viral load is below the cutoff for a positive test, and a person who has been infected and recovered. Tests that measure antibody formation can give you information regarding that group of asymptomatic but infected patients. I haven't seen anything currently available that uses serology for Coronavirus testing.

There are a couple glaring problems with mass testing as implemented. As the test seems to be biased toward true positives, it isn't a great screening test. Another big problem is there isn't a clearly defined effective treatment, so diagnosing the disease doesn't give you all that much actionable intelligence. Once a treatment becomes available, mass testing with an adjustment of the test characteristics or methodology has a place. Finally, a negative test may lend a false sense of security, again as the available test appears to be weighted away from sensitivity, and that viral RNA may be present, but below the test cutoff, and could be either rising or falling depending on where in the course of the illness the patient may be. Oh, and the test takes 48-72 hours to yield results.

V/R
Thank you for posting this, a lot of it is over my head but it is great info. The way I read it tho is... Basically 42% are infected right?
 
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