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All things Baseball

Spekkio said:
Pitchers going 4-5 innings is one of the worst changes that analytics have brought to baseball. If you ask a modern GM if they'd rather have a pitcher who always throws 5 scoreless innings or a pitcher who always goes 9 and lets up 2 runs, they will pick the former, because mathematically your average bullpen will not let up 2 runs in 4 innings of work.

It was an interesting part of the game when a pitcher had to face a batter 4 times. How is he going to approach the batter this time? Is he still going to be able to fool him?

Now it's two times through the order and you're out, which enables guys to crank up the velocity when they don't have to go deep into games. We can put in some random nameless reliever who will gladly throw his arm out for a paycheck while we *wink wink nudge nudge* violate his player rights, and statistically that's better than facing the order the third time. If he sues the league we'll just pay him a few million dollar settlement.

I remember going to a game Pedro started and he threw 88mph in the first inning (although this was measured at the plate and not at release, so it was probably closer to 92). He didn't top out his velo until the third. This was pretty consistent among pitchers who expected to go deep into games.

Purists hate the idea of roster restrictions, but I wish MLB would cap pitchers on the roster to 11.

Anyway, I can't find it anymore because of google's shitty indexing, but there was a former pitching coach who broke down the Mets' rotation in 2014-2015 and said that every single one of them is going to need TJS due to the timing between their stride and release to get 100mph. Fast forward and he was right. Those mechanics are ubiquitous in MLB, but no one cares. It's also why pitchers writ large have started to get mostly limited to 3 year deals but with absurd annual value. Everyone in the industry, including the players, expects they will injure themselves.


Johan Santana's no hitter famously ended his career. Pedro's 9 perfect innings in a 10-inning loss did not (and he is not credited with a perfect game because he let up a hit in the 10th).
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As a baseball purist, I hated the thought of the pitch clock, in retrospect, I really appreciate it now. I was thinking the same thing about limiting the number of pitchers on a roster- although how many teams would end up reclassifying a pitcher as a left fielder or something similar?
 
The pitch clock was unfortunately a necessary evil. I wish the Manfred runner didn't appear until the 12th. I understand why the players like it, but I hate that teams can score without getting a hit or walk.

I'm not a fan of the ABS challenges, mostly because it's a different strike zone than the rule book (and the ones the umpires should be calling). It also only has a 95% confidence interval accuracy of 0.5", so MLB shouldn't be overturning pitches that are in / out of the zone by less than 1". I did enjoy Keith Hernandez ragging on pitchers for whining too much (their overturn accuracy in challenges was atrocious in the first few weeks of the season).

Anyway, the mechanism to stop someone from being a left fielder today and a reliever tomorrow is to require teams to designate their pitchers on the 40-man at the start of the season. Out of that roster, you get to have 11 people you already designated as a 'pitcher' on the 26 man roster. If they're not declared a pitcher on opening day, they are ineligible to pitch for the entire season unless the game meets the criteria to put a position player into the game as a pitcher. No restriction on using players designated as pitchers as position players or hitters, since the number of pitchers are what is capped, so no exception needed for Ohtani.

It'll never happen - the MLBPA would throw a fit because it would put lots of players out of a job. But they'll frame it in terms of dubious research about pitch count and innings limits supposedly limiting injuries.
 
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Spekkio said:
random nameless reliever who will gladly throw his arm out for a paycheck while we *wink wink nudge nudge* violate his player rights, and statistically that's better than facing the order the third time. If he sues the league we'll just pay him a few million dollar settlement.
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Can you elaborate on this part? I'm unfamiliar.
 
I mean, I can't source it other than saying you gotta talk to minor leaguers / MLB wash-outs. Fans like to focus on how much money Juan Soto or Aaron Judge is making and what goes unreported / unnoticed is how many journeyman making the league minimum get fucked by the organization the moment they get injured trying to make prime time.

But I can point to the fact that MLB changed eligibility rules that when you demote someone to AAA, they have to spend a minimum amount of time there. Because prior to that it was a game of: Have minor league options? Great, pitch in NY on Monday, hop on a plane after the game and be in Las Vegas for the minor leagues on Tuesday. Oh you had your minimum 2 days rest? Get back on a plane and meet us Atlanta to pitch on Thursday. Now back to Las Vegas on Friday. And they don't get paid MLB salary for the days they spend in the MiL.

Now you'd think someone said wait a sec, that's fucked up, but the reason the rule changed was that veteran relievers were complaining to the MLBPA that the lack of MiL options was destroying their contract opportunities in free agency. They 'paid their dues' only to be told to get fucked, the inability to demote you to AAA at will is too constrictive.

Not to mention the fake IL assignments, for which a GM, Billy Eppler, was fined by the league (and resigned his position).

And then if they actually get hurt to the point they can't pitch anymore, they gotta lawyer up to get their benefits paid out.

Every reliever in MLB is someone who wasn't good enough to be a starting pitcher. So they get converted. At that point they are practically expendable bodies except for the rare few that ascent to Aroldis Chapman status. The relievers all know that no one gives a shit about their well-being, they just hope they can last long enough for a decent payday. It's the dirty underbelly of the MLB, and no one is going to stand up for the guy who comes in to throw 15 pitches in the 6th inning, consisting of 8 fastballs and 7 sliders, when the team is down 6-1.

There's a reason Seth Lugo fought tooth-and-nail to be a starting pitcher. Not only is the pay a LOT better, the organization treats him like a human being who has a valuable skill and believes in things like 'rest'.

Also look at how fans and pundits talk about 'the bullpen.'
 
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Spekkio said:
I mean, I can't source it other than saying you gotta talk to minor leaguers / MLB wash-outs. Fans like to focus on how much money Juan Soto or Aaron Judge is making and what goes unreported / unnoticed is how many journeyman making the league minimum get fucked by the organization the moment they get injured trying to make prime time.

But I can point to the fact that MLB changed eligibility rules that when you demote someone to AAA, they have to spend a minimum amount of time there. Because prior to that it was a game of: Have minor league options? Great, pitch in NY on Monday, hop on a plane after the game and be in Las Vegas for the minor leagues on Tuesday. Oh you had your minimum 2 days rest? Get back on a plane and meet us Atlanta to pitch on Thursday. Now back to Las Vegas on Friday. And they don't get paid MLB salary for the days they spend in the MiL.

Now you'd think someone said wait a sec, that's fucked up, but the reason the rule changed was that veteran relievers were complaining to the MLBPA that the lack of MiL options was destroying their contract opportunities in free agency. They 'paid their dues' only to be told to get fucked, the inability to demote you to AAA at will is too constrictive.

Not to mention the fake IL assignments, for which a GM, Billy Eppler, was fined by the league (and resigned his position).

And then if they actually get hurt to the point they can't pitch anymore, they gotta lawyer up to get their benefits paid out.

Every reliever in MLB is someone who wasn't good enough to be a starting pitcher. So they get converted. At that point they are practically expendable bodies except for the rare few that ascent to Aroldis Chapman status. The relievers all know that no one gives a shit about their well-being, they just hope they can last long enough for a decent payday. It's the dirty underbelly of the MLB, and no one is going to stand up for the guy who comes in to throw 15 pitches in the 6th inning, consisting of 8 fastballs and 7 sliders, when the team is down 6-1.

There's a reason Seth Lugo fought tooth-and-nail to be a starting pitcher. Not only is the pay a LOT better, the organization treats him like a human being who has a valuable skill and believes in things like 'rest'.

Also look at how fans and pundits talk about 'the bullpen.'
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Are you discussing all relievers or just middle relief? What you describe sounds very much like interchangeable journeymen hurlers, but an intimidating closer is something special - someone like Rich Goose Gossage of the Yankees back in the day.

Glad to see you made an exception for games getting out of hand and position players getting to pitch. Always fun to see the knuckleballs floating in as well as the mortar arc eephus pitches.

 
Fewer than 5% of relievers ascend to 'closer' status (hency my Aroldis Chapman reference). They are outliers. I was referring to the other 95%+.

The conundrum that relievers have is that, on an individual level, they aren't that valuable to winning ball games. The best relievers in the league rack up a whopping 1-2 WAR.

Even the best closers aren't good enough to start games. They usually only have 1-2 pitches and throw with velocity at the upper end of human performance limits, so they have almost no stamina and very little control.

I don't think any relievers should be in the HOF with the exception of maybe Mariano Rivera because meaningful contributions to multiple championships should be considered. That's because I don't consider a 'reliever' to be a separate position from 'starting pitcher,' so inducting relievers is like inducting a career pinch hitter. Yes, that means if Mo spent his career with the Royals or Mets he shouldn't be in. On the other end of the spectrum, the HOF is going to have to significantly lower the bar for starting pitchers in terms of workload after the Scherzer, Verlander, and Sale get inducted.
 
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Spekkio said:
Fewer than 5% of relievers ascend to 'closer' status (hency my Aroldis Chapman reference). They are outliers. I was referring to the other 95%+.

The conundrum that relievers have is that, on an individual level, they aren't that valuable to winning ball games. The best relievers in the league rack up a whopping 1-2 WAR.

Even the best closers aren't good enough to start games. They usually only have 1-2 pitches and throw with velocity at the upper end of human performance limits, so they have almost no stamina and very little control.

I don't think any relievers should be in the HOF with the exception of maybe Mariano Rivera because meaningful contributions to multiple championships should be considered. That's because I don't consider a 'reliever' to be a separate position from 'starting pitcher.' Yes, that means if Mo spent his career with the Royals or Mets he shouldn't be in. On the other end of the spectrum, the HOF is going to have to significantly lower the bar for starting pitchers in terms of workload after the Scherzer, Verlander, and Sale get inducted.
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My experience as a Braves fan probably lesds me to a different perspective. One of the best starting rotations of all time with Maddox, Glavine, Avery and Smoltz resulted in 5 World Series appearances but only 1 ring during the 90’s.

Ironically, Smoltz blew out his arm, repaired it and returned as a top reliever.
 
Randy Daytona said:
My experience as a Braves fan probably lesds me to a different perspective. One of the best starting rotations of all time with Maddox, Glavine, Avery and Smoltz resulted in 5 World Series appearances but only 1 ring during the 90’s.
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I'm not saying that championships are a necessary condition to HOF induction, but they are definitely part of the calculus that could put a borderline player over the top.

If Mariano Rivera isn't good enough to be a back-end starting pitcher then why should he be inducted? His only case is his playoff success.

Whereas the Braves rotation is very clearly inner-circle HOF material, and mostly pitched extremely well in the playoffs. They weren't like Kershaw who suddenly vanished every year, so if you're consider post-season performance then there's an insteresting one... alongside the fact that he only owns 5 seasons of hitting 200+ IP.

Although I hate that the year that Glavine went to the Mets was the year MLB installed QuesTec and so umps stopped giving him 2" off the outside corner.

Ironically, Smoltz blew out his arm, repaired it and returned as a top reliever.
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He also returned as a top of the rotation starter at the age of 38, and threw over 200 innings the next 3 seasons. His HOF case would be interesting if he never did that. Not sure if he'd make it in for the same reasons Santana didn't get voted in.
 
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Spekkio said:
I mean, I can't source it other than saying you gotta talk to minor leaguers / MLB wash-outs. Fans like to focus on how much money Juan Soto or Aaron Judge is making and what goes unreported / unnoticed is how many journeyman making the league minimum get fucked by the organization the moment they get injured trying to make prime time.

But I can point to the fact that MLB changed eligibility rules that when you demote someone to AAA, they have to spend a minimum amount of time there. Because prior to that it was a game of: Have minor league options? Great, pitch in NY on Monday, hop on a plane after the game and be in Las Vegas for the minor leagues on Tuesday. Oh you had your minimum 2 days rest? Get back on a plane and meet us Atlanta to pitch on Thursday. Now back to Las Vegas on Friday. And they don't get paid MLB salary for the days they spend in the MiL.

Now you'd think someone said wait a sec, that's fucked up, but the reason the rule changed was that veteran relievers were complaining to the MLBPA that the lack of MiL options was destroying their contract opportunities in free agency. They 'paid their dues' only to be told to get fucked, the inability to demote you to AAA at will is too constrictive.

Not to mention the fake IL assignments, for which a GM, Billy Eppler, was fined by the league (and resigned his position).

And then if they actually get hurt to the point they can't pitch anymore, they gotta lawyer up to get their benefits paid out.

Every reliever in MLB is someone who wasn't good enough to be a starting pitcher. So they get converted. At that point they are practically expendable bodies except for the rare few that ascent to Aroldis Chapman status. The relievers all know that no one gives a shit about their well-being, they just hope they can last long enough for a decent payday. It's the dirty underbelly of the MLB, and no one is going to stand up for the guy who comes in to throw 15 pitches in the 6th inning, consisting of 8 fastballs and 7 sliders, when the team is down 6-1.

There's a reason Seth Lugo fought tooth-and-nail to be a starting pitcher. Not only is the pay a LOT better, the organization treats him like a human being who has a valuable skill and believes in things like 'rest'.

Also look at how fans and pundits talk about 'the bullpen.'
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There's A LOT wrong in this post, almost too much to pull apart line-by-line, so I'll just a few:

"At that point they are practically expendable bodies...all know that no one gives a shit about their well-being...no one is going to stand up for the guy who comes in to throw 15 pitches in the 6th..." Not sure what league you're watching, or how closely you pay attention to the business side of the game, but..... 😬
 
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Randy Daytona said:
Great video - and I do remember that episode of South Park.
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It's a shit video that misses the obvious...

People want to call Mike Trout one of the best players to ever play the game and there's a good chance he will retire with fewer than 450 HRs. Willie Mays has 660. Mantle has 536. Too many people are lost in the sauce of statistical estimates vs actual accomplishments. Trout has been in the big leagues 16 seasons and might retire with fewer than 2,000 hits when an all-time great would be knocking on 3,000. Going back to Willie Mays, he has almost double the amount of hits as Trout and Mantle has 700 more.

You aren't an all time great because you hit 40 HRs in a year when the rest of the league happened to hit worse than normal. And the biggest yawn factor of it all is that walks went from missed HOF opportunities to the most valuable event next to a HR. We used to define 'great hitters' as people who could put a piece of wood on the ball. You know where the kid in little league who walks all the time is going to hit in the order? Last.

This is not to say Trout isn't a great player, but I watched Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr, Andruw Jones, and Carlos Beltran, and Trout is... not in their league.

People are comparing Juan Soto to the 'modern day Ted Williams.' Soto has a career 280 batting average. He's hit 300+ twice in his 9 year career. These players are not the same.

Want to make baseball more interesting? Revert to the 1988 - 1995 strike zone where it's top of the knees, not bottom of knees. It was elongated because umps weren't calling it right. Once they did start calling it right around the late 00s, the low, hard slider - erm, 'sweeper' (I fucking hate that word) - is unhittable.

Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani hitting 50+ dongs a year is what the league needs, not a crash course on why Trout, Lindor, and Soto are amazing because a linear regression model says so. You want to shout at people that hitting 140 RBIs is 'luck' and 'fake stats' but wRC+ is 'truth' and you're going to lose fans. The Big Hurt wasn't good at baseball, he was just in the right place at the right time? GTFO. A career 270 BA SS is better than a SS who retired with 4 world titles and over 3,000 hits because statisticians want to ret-con a career? No. As I like to tell people - WAR was invented to find hidden value in mediocre players... you don't need WAR to identify a HOFer.

There's a serious messaging problem MLB has on its hands and it's losing it to stats nerds who don't actually watch games for entertainment.

And the other aspect that baseball needs to look at is guaranteed contracts. A team like the Angels or Nationals shouldn't be doomed to a decade of losing because Rendon or Strasburg suffer career-ending injuries. Nor Cincinnati for signing the corpse of Ken Griffey Jr. The MLBPA loves it, but the fans don't.

I've already said my piece about pitchers not facing guys 3-4 times a game, but I've resigned myself that this aspect of the game is never coming back. But I really do hate seeing "so-and-so pitcher has 10 starts of 2 ER or fewer, best since Tom Seaver" when so-and-so pitcher is throwing 4 2/3 innings per start and Seaver pushed 300 innings a year. That might get the teenage crowd excited, but it makes the 40+ crowd roll their eyes.
 
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