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Airline CEO letter RE:Oil Futures

Do you think oil futures speculation drives up the price of a barrel of oil?


  • Total voters
    39
  • Poll closed .

pourts

former Marine F/A-18 pilot & FAC, current MBA stud
pilot
ProfitsOilVsOtherIndust3rdQ2005.gif


Just for fun...:p All these mofos are making their coin...

Nice graph. I would be interested to see some quantification of the amount of risk taken in these different industries, since in an efficient market, risk taken should be proportional to profit received. Intuitively it seems like pharma probably has the highest risk, since hundreds of millions could be spent on a single drug that ends up a flop.
 

Bugsmasher

Another Non-qual SWO Ensign
And the corn comment is quite applicable too, as it's another stupid national energy policy that creates a net loss of energy, since it costs more energy to the corn than we get from the resulting ethanol.
Incorrect unless you are getting all of your information from Pimentel and Patzek. Their life-cycle analysis of corn-to-ethanol is deeply flawed. The general consensus is that corn ethanol provides 25-30% more energy than it takes to produce.

http://www.pnas.org/content/103/30/11206.abstract (Univ of Minnesota)
http://www.ethanol-gec.org/netenergy/NEYShapouri.htm (USDA)
http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/TA/267.pdf (Argonne Nat'l Lab)

The biggest problem with corn ethanol is that it is coupled to the food supply, not that its energy balance is negative.
 

A4sForever

BTDT OLD GUY
pilot
Contributor
Oh, by-the-by .... oil's down @ $10/bbl as we "speak" ... and all it took was the Pres to get off the pot and renounce the former Executive Order banning offshore drilling on the Continental Shelf ...

Makes you wonder what could happen to oil futures if the politicians would actually DO something w/ predictable & meaningful long term implications ... instead of just "talk" about what "won't work" .... :)
 

picklesuit

Dirty Hinge
pilot
Contributor
hey guys, I'm not going to get into the argument on either side (I don't know enough about oil)...just remember that 20 minutes on google doesn't make a person an expert on any subject.
 

Bevo16

Registered User
pilot
Incorrect unless you are getting all of your information from Pimentel and Patzek. Their life-cycle analysis of corn-to-ethanol is deeply flawed. The general consensus is that corn ethanol provides 25-30% more energy than it takes to produce.

25-30% more engergy!!! Wow! Hell, I do better than that just by eating at the local mexican food resturant. None of the studies that you linked are complete. Sure, they look at the energy that the farmers have to use to produce corn in fuel etc, but they don't look at other expenses like fertilizer, and pesticides, and the energy it takes to get those products into the field. They also stop their "energy equation" when the ethanol is produced, and they ignore the fact that ethanol is to unstable and cannot be brought to market by pipeline. This great source of energy has to shipped in diesel powered trucks.

From your own link:

Even dedicating all U.S. corn and soybean production to biofuels would meet only 12% of gasoline demand and 6% of diesel demand.

This is a statistic that any reasonable person should be able to read and immedietly understand that ANY ethanol production (excluding what Mr. Daniel has been up to in Lynchburg, TN) is just plain stupid.


The biggest problem with corn ethanol is that it is coupled to the food supply, not that its energy balance is negative.

"Coupled" is not the right word. Corn is the cornerstone of the American and world food supplies. Depending on the data, somewhere between 1/4, and 1/3 of the domestic corn production HAS to go to ethanol production. How screwed up is it that ethanol production has a federal mandate and public subsidy, but what goes to our dinner table does not? Most people do not understand the ripple effect that taking that much corn off the market has on prices of everything. Look at the ingredients on a Coke, you will not get far until you get to "high fructose corn syrup". Know what else that's in? Damn near everything. How do you think your steaks get that good marble to them? They sit in a feed lot and eat nothing but corn for a couple of months before they get processed. The eggs in your McMuffin are produced by chickens that have to eat several pounds of corn every day. This goes on and on, but that's not even the start.

Farmers have been paying attention to the run up in corn prices, so they are trying to cash in. Why plant cotton when corn will pay you twice the money per acre? So, cotton, and wheat, and soybean supplies go down, and that drives up the price of everything from socks, to bread, to McDonald's hamburgers.

This is the price of being green.

The alternative is drilling a bunch of oil wells that 99.99% of the population will ever even see. I just don't see why this is so f'ing hard.
 

A4sForever

BTDT OLD GUY
pilot
Contributor
....
The alternative (to being "green") is drilling a bunch of oil wells that 99.99% of the population will ever even see. I just don't see why this is so f'ing hard.

It's not that hard. People w/ a "green" agenda make it hard; w/ a purpose in mind ... as the only thing they wonder about is "why it took so long" for gas to reach $4/gal .... :)
 

nittany03

Recovering NFO. Herder of Programmers.
pilot
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
It's not that hard. People w/ a "green" agenda make it hard; w/ a purpose in mind ... as the only thing they wonder about is "why it took so long" for gas to reach $4/gal .... :)
I'm all about being "green." Just not at the expense of wrecking the economy to do so. Sorry, but people's lives and livelihoods are more important than the widdle fuwwy aminals. And it's not the Earth that needs saving. WE do. The Earth is just going to keep spinning around happily on its axis, not giving a whit that the contents of its atmosphere are or are not conducive to life.

Global warming or not, for example, I want to go to Morro Rock at Sequoia and be able to see NAS Lemoore and beyond. Gas is a nonrenewable resource. We should wean ourselves from it anyway because it's wasteful and stinky. But I'm not willing to put half the country out of a job because some hairshirted hippie thinks we need to do penance for offending Mother Gaia and stop driving cars tomorrow. I LIKE living in the 21st century. It's bad enough that my Wachovia shares are in the toilet thanks to idiots selling bad mortgages to other idiots. I don't need the rest of my portfolio to join it. :icon_rage

</rant>
 

picklesuit

Dirty Hinge
pilot
Contributor
Global warming or not, for example, I want to go to Morro Rock at Sequoia and be able to see NAS Lemoore and beyond.
</rant>

I've actually seen that once, after a storm blew through... we couldn't actually "see" Lemoore NAS(I was too young to realize there was a base there at the time) but I remember my dad saying he couldn't believe we could actually see Lemoore.
 

BoaisyJon

Point of parliamentary procedure!

Makes you wonder what could happen to oil futures if the politicians would actually DO something w/ predictable & meaningful long term implications ... instead of just "talk" about what "won't work" .... :)

Huzzah. The congressional moratorium on drilling expires on September 30. Finally, by doing what they do best, congress will affect positive change. Anyone wanna bet that oil doesn't drop more as we get more serious about getting our own? The oil-controlling nations walk a fine line....they will be forced to increase production, lowering the cost per barrel before ours comes on line. Three cheers for capitalism & freedom.
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
All, I have is an assertion? Well, that's a hell of a lot better than a bunch of posting a bunch of links and not even having the basic ability to understand the definitions that he posts.

I am not going to wast[e] my time doing Flash's research for him. The information is free, all he has to do is step down from his liberal talking points for long enough to find the answers.

Whatever you may think you know of my politics, I am still curious how you came up with this assertion (and again, if you are going to claim oil shale, then you are counting something even the oil companies don't count):

We have more oil, coal, and uranium than any other country in the world.
 

A4sForever

BTDT OLD GUY
pilot
Contributor
That's dishonest. The Poll should be nullified then.

You are right. Consider the poll hereby declared nullified ...

I also declare that the poll, modified or not, will have NO EFFECT over whether the sun rises tomorrow ....

Hope that helps you .... :)
 
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