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Not at all. Some people can be hard nosed leaders and revered by their subordinates like General Mattis. These people have a gift of charisma that when they correct someone or come down on them, the person walks away thinking positively of that person. They're the top 1%. Most are not like...

Yea, you missed the point. There are several notable military leaders who were not well-liked by either their subordinate officers or enlisted men. Some people can be both. Many can't. So what's more important? If you're going to automatically disregard everything written by a retired O6...

More accurately, it assumes that 100% of people who died at home would have died in in-patient care. The amount of people who die at home is a comparatively small number.

Well, my data was a week old. With the last report coming out it's dropped to 55%. CDC website / weekly reports. The CDC doesn't make it easy to find... it reports a cumulative hospitalization rate of 40 per 100,000 people. Doing some math, that's 130,000 people total. Approximately 72,000...

Total number of fatalities people divided by total people who require in patient care.

You listed a bunch of things that doctors are trying, but when close to 70% of in patients ultimately die I file that under 'there's no treatment.' O2 and ventilators don't work if your lungs can't absorb the air.

COVID-19 kills people by essentially turning their alveoli into plastic. There's no treatment for that.

A one month period is enough to assess how cases are trending, even with current testing methods.

Those are big numbers, but those people would have died regardless of how the pandemic was managed. The thing is that hospitals aren't overrun - there are approximately 1.5 people who need inpatient care for every person who dies. This is significantly fewer than the initial estimate...

cfr =/= ifr

Imagine you couldn't see your wife or your 7 year old daughter in her last days of life because a person who doesn't even have an MD and who makes a 7-figure income decided it was in your best interest. Also consider that over 60% of hospitalized patients for COVID-19 never recover. What word...

I thought you were smart enough to know that the people who make policy decisions for hospitals don't see patients.

I think an IFR of 0.5 nation wide is way high. 0.1-0.3 is more reasonable. Right now the lower bound based on PFR is 0.3% in NYC but 0.025% nationwide. Also the 50:1 infection to confirmed case ratio estimated from the studies in CA don't hold for NYC - there aren't 15 million people living...

Care for acute illnesses is relatively cheap to provide (price gouging on insurance payment schedules for outpatient visits and lab tests notwithstanding). Many hospitals and clinics have even delegated this task to nurses and PAs to further cut costs. Even if every hospital were full right now...

Me spitballing a 50:1 infection ratio based on some studies done in CA is entirely different than the licensed professionals putting their reputations on the line with an official count based on estimates that have a wide variation. I think that we started social distancing and stay at home...

With our current testing policies, and the false negative rate, accurately tracking recoveries is impossible. I think what's a bit morbid is that if you're admitted to inpatient care, you have a 2/3 chance of dying anyway. Personally... knowing that those fuckers won't let patients see their...

That was Dr Fauci's initial estimate... before it became politically inconvenient and all models started to magically end in the summer. Aside from that... Over 1 million people have tested positive. It's estimated that there are about 50 people who are undiagnosed for every positive test...

The concern about overwhelming hospitals was so critical that no one is actually counting how many people have needed in patient care. EDIT: It is being counted, just had to look harder. Approximately 88,000 people have been hospitalized for COVID-19, or roughly 1.5x the amount of people who...

The modeling of COVID-19 spread is a math and computer programming problem, not a medical doctor problem. https://covid19-projections.com/ When the 95% CI for deaths in 3 months spans 88-300k, we need to have the maturity to just say that we don't know what's going to happen. Or perhaps...

Today marks the 1/3 point to the total people who will die and be confirmed of infection.

I think it's this thing boomers use to install apps and play music.

My daughter wants to make homemade pizza on her birthday and all the panic buyers bought all the yeast. :mad: At least there are recipes with baking powder as a substitute.

Making logical misinterpretations of statements doesn't help. 'There are no scientific studies showing X affects Y' is not logically the same as 'X does not affect Y' This kind of thing is why the world thinks that Trump asked people to inject bleach into their lungs.

I wasn't in favor of the lockdown when it began, but I wouldn't go so far as to call it ridiculous. What I do find ridiculous is that we met the goal to ensure that the people who succumbed to the disease could be treated by medical professionals, but no, that's not good enough. Now we need to...

Living in SC circa 2009 my annual living expenses for housing and utilities was $9800. Food ran me about $2000 a year. I could have shaved 13% off of that if I went for a basic cell phone plan or landline instead of a smartphone and got rid of internet. I could have shaved 25-33% if I split the...

I hate when people mention this to justify higher wages. These business owners don't have trillions of liquid assets sitting around. The vast majority of their net worth is directly tied to owning very profitable businesses with huge market shares. Do they draw out millions of cash flow to...

I'm partial toward Alton Brown. Learning why certain ingredients and techniques work was even more useful than the what, and I like that most of his recipes focus on only a few key but fresh ingredients and the technique. /BT I learned how to do a fade. On myself. And get better results than...

That's the wrong question and it speaks to the mission creep of the economic shutdown. What is the rate of serious cases vs available doctors and nurses? That's the question to answer. In most places, it's substantially below capacity. Small risk mitigation measures like wearing masks is...

You're missing the point. Those regulations exist so that we as consumers know for a fact that the person can give haircuts and shaves, and will follow health guidelines so that we don't get AIDS from a dirty razor blade (and if they don't follow those guidelines, we can hold them accountable)...

I've been on the fatalism side of the issue throughout. Diseases spread, and there's not a whole lot we can do about it.

You're attacking the symptoms, not the cause. The issue isn't that Mr Smith can't run his barber business out of his garage; the issue is that over the last month our political leadership was not laser focused on developing a plan on how we could safely allow him to open shop (eg masks, extra...

Protests are already starting. Backed by models or not, political leadership needs to develop and communicate an intelligent exit plan in the next week or two before the public forces them to implement a knee jerk stupid exit plan.

This is completely unprecedented. Reporting like this could even incite war. We should name it. I propose calling it 'yellow journalism.'

Only second to his 'only Rosie O'Donnell' retort, which I'm convinced won him the Presidency.* *Seriously, does anyone like Rosie O'Donnell?

Then why are you being a raging asshole that the scientist interview that you cherry picked can't possibly be wrong? Also, across three replies to me you have yet to answer the basic question I posed. Done, although I'm sure that he'd love it to know that you're publicly disseminating his...

I don't know why you have to act like a screaming duche to people who think critically about information presented, especially when you just went back and showed how your infallible professionals even disagree with each other and themselves from a few weeks ago. The doctor's claims doesn't...

Your appeal to authority being infallible is amusing. I simply posed a reasonable question based on the facts of the most recent pandemic before COVID-19 (although I was off by a 0 typing on my phone the point still stands). The smart people in this thread know that you can't distill this down...

I won't flat out say that he's wrong, but if I were interviewing him I would ask how he came to the conclusion that only 600,000 out of 300,000,000+ Americans would get the disease when 100x that many people got swine flu and there's supposedly no herd immunity to COVID-19.

Looks like we still haven't learned how to develop exit strategy.

Again, those models inexplicably assume the disease peaks in April-May then disappears entirely from the Earth on Aug 4th with no vaccination. This doesn't match the progression of our most recent pandemic with the swine flu. Models should start with fitting reality (e.g. the swine flu), then...

What I hope to illustrate with this gross analysis is: 1) That we're still only in the beginning. 2) Why I think that our political leadership's plan is shallow, stupid, and inadequate. 3) There's a lot of misinformation being promoted as well as models that don't pass the common sense test.

Swine flu total Americans infected from Jan 2009-Apr 2010: 60M Swine flu estimated immunity: 2/3 Worst month: October 2009, 7% of all outpatient visits. Projected total COVID-19 infections through Spring 2021 based on Swine Flu pandemic and no herd immunity: 170M Projected total...

Why do any of that when you can simply induce panic to shut down the country and send everyone a check when they inevitably get laid off?

Another thing no one is talking about - healthcare professionals are not a homogeneous blob. Many specialize in a field. The plastic surgeon and nurses operating to save a burn victim are not the same people as the obgyn and nurses doing an emergency c-section, and none of the above are the...

Yea but the major reason for shutting down the economy was the claim that hospitals would be so overloaded with COVID-19 patients that people would be dying while waiting for medical treatment. Now here they are laying off healthcare professionals on the dawn of the worst projected weeks.

The area under the curve (which represents the total sick and dead people when all this is over) doesn't change among all these 'flatten the curve' models. And hospitals in many areas are starting to furlough/layoff/cut salaries, so a more targeted approach of increasing urgent care capacity...

We could equally tell the public writ large to stop being fat and diabetic so their bodies can fight off a fever and upper respiratory infection.

You're right. I don't know you from Adam and you're as important to me as the ~1,000 Americans who died in auto accidents since this thread started. We haven't banned driving. We should ban foam hand sanitizer, but for some reason the CDC is silent on that despite overwhelming scientific...