COVID-19

[Ken_gone_flying]

Remember that the doomsayer predictions were based on NYC doing nothing.

But two weeks ago the model from the University of Washington that factored in the social distancing guidelines estimated there were going to be 100,000 - 240,000 deaths in the US by August 4th. That same model was updated a week later, using the same factors to 60,000 deaths in the US. There are too many factors for these models to be anywhere near accurate, and that’s been proven. So far these models have done nothing but panic society and prove that they’re unreliable.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

Brazos County and Cameron County Texas are also coming down hard on Stay At Home Order violators, they actually have patrols out looking for violators!

Like I said, I hope there are serious consequences for these power hungry imbeciles.

Work at Home Depot? Grocery store? Chick Fil A? Airline pilot? You’re “essential.” Trying to run your small business? Papers, comrade.

 

[nittany03]

Work at Home Depot? Grocery store? Chick Fil A? Airline pilot? You’re “essential.” Trying to run your small business? Papers, comrade.

Yep, you're right. You cracked the code. Anyone who wants to stop the virus is a Communist. Good job!

 

[Treetop Flyer]

Yep, you're right. You cracked the code. Anyone who wants to stop the virus is a Communist. Good job!

I didn’t say it was communist. I’m saying it’s a blatant and idiotic authoritarian over reach. But yeah I guess you’re ok with a county judge telling non residents they aren’t allowed within his county. Or out of state homeowners can’t go home. Or arresting someone for running alone on a public beach or park. Because virus.

 

[Jim123]

Don't forget fining people for sitting in their cars with the windows up in a church parking lot.

 

[Python]

Yep, you're right. You cracked the code. Anyone who wants to stop the virus is a Communist. Good job!

That’s not what he said.

 

[nittany03]

I didn’t say it was communist. I’m saying it’s a blatant and idiotic authoritarian over reach. But yeah I guess you’re ok with a county judge telling non residents they aren’t allowed within his county. Or out of state homeowners can’t go home. Or arresting someone for running alone on a public beach or park. Because virus.

Nice slippery slope. There are restrictions that haven been put on some small businesses for reasons that have to do with medical necessity, not your sarcastic "papers, comrade." That doesn't mean I blindly agree with every restriction on liberties that have been put out there.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

Nice slippery slope. There are restrictions that haven been put on some small businesses for reasons that have to do with medical necessity, not your sarcastic "papers, comrade." That doesn't mean I blindly agree with every restriction on liberties that have been put out there.

I’m not being sarcastic. I have literally received a letter from my company to show in case I have to justify me moving about freely. It seemed silly at the time but ridiculous authoritarian restrictions are popping up everywhere now. I’m happy the corporation I work for has been deemed “essential” so I can continue to earn money. For those not so fortunate... papers please. Return to your home until some judge decides you’re allowed to work or move about freely. I can’t believe I’m even having this argument with you.

 

[Swanee]

Themis Bar Review: Constitutional Law Basics section (a friend pointed me to this, because I'm really curious where the authority for restriction lies and where it does not and he's about to sit for the bar in July).

“Some rights are so deeply rooted in our nation’s tradition and history that they are considered fundamental. These rights include: (i) the right to travel....Under strict scrutiny, a law interfering with the fundamental rights of travel and privacy will generally be upheld only if it is necessary to achieve a compelling governmental interest.”

What is a compelling governmental interest? Well- for the stated case- there hasn't been one outside of limiting public access due to concerns for national security. Military bases are used as an example.

https://www.gunnisontimes.com/content/texas-attorney-general-sends-warning-gunnison-county

This also just happened.

The State is sovereign over the locality, and the Federal Gov is sovereign over the State (we all know this, but do the local and state politicians?). I believe that we may see POTUS issue some type of executive order barring the restriction of travel within the next month, in an effort to get the economy going again.

 

[RedFive]

I have literally received a letter from my company to show in case I have to justify me moving about freely. It seemed silly at the time but ridiculous authoritarian restrictions are popping up everywhere now.

Same same. Masks are now required at LAX and (supposedly) my company started distributing them to crews at each plane today. I shall find out in the morning. But you can't buy a mask anywhere, so if I'm supposed to wear a mask on the employee bus, how do I get to the airplane where they'll give me a mask? Fuck. Ski mask it is!

I’m happy the corporation I work for has been deemed “essential” so I can continue to earn money. For those not so fortunate...

Yeah, think about the San Diego/TJ region. Over 100k people used to cross the border every day. Now they're just SOL until who knows when. The peso is losing value drastically. And while Mexico has pretty decent medicine, they're going to get hit much harder by this than all of us up here.

 

[SlickAg]

Nice slippery slope. There are restrictions that haven been put on some small businesses for reasons that have to do with medical necessity, not your sarcastic "papers, comrade." That doesn't mean I blindly agree with every restriction on liberties that have been put out there.

Did you not see the clip where Dr. Fauci agreed that having a “vaccine card” that proved you were “safe” to travel around had merit?

(And I’m sure the same people who are against voter ID laws will think this is a fantastic idea keeping society safe.)

 

[taxi1]

But two weeks ago the model from the University of Washington that factored in the social distancing guidelines estimated there were going to be 100,000 - 240,000 deaths in the US by August 4th. That same model was updated a week later, using the same factors to 60,000 deaths in the US. There are too many factors for these models to be anywhere near accurate, and that’s been proven. So far these models have done nothing but panic society and prove that they’re unreliable.

One thing we know is that if you do nothing, the doubling rate is about twice a week. That goes on until 2 weeks after you’ve started distancing or you run out of people to get sick.

If nobody had said anything and life had gone on as normal, we’d be seeing some crazy death rates now, and then society would be panicking just fine with no need for models.

If you have an error in the estimate of the rate of exponential growth, that error itself grows exponentially. Lots of room for noise in the estimates.

 

[SlickAg]

Accurate numbers on that stuff is going to have to wait until most of this is over, unfortunately. Big errors in getting data and even attributing deaths while we are in the thick of it.

Come May some towns or cities will maybe relax the distancing, and we’ll find out what happens experimentally. The rest of us will watch and learn.

Can we not look at Sweden and Norway since they’ve already begun their “experiment”?

 

[Sonog]

A restaurant worker handing an order to a Uber eats driver and then him handing it to me is “ok”. But me handing money to a shop owner in exchange for merchandise is dangerous. It’s absurd. Takeout is allowed purely to keep people from losing their shit.

It was the right call to buy time to prepare and study. Now it’s time to get on with it.

Are you complaining about not being allowed to use paper money? Do you even amex bro?

 

[SlickAg]

Every country in the world has essentially come to the same conclusion: lockdown. Independent nation's wouldn't have all thrown on the economic brakes if there weren't such grim outlooks from doing nothing.

Sweden and Norway didn’t lockdown. They’re doing relatively fine.

And now Italy and Germany are both looking at their way forward after their lockdowns. The cure shouldn’t be worse than the illness.

Here’s another thing to think about. Drs. Birx and Fauci took oaths to prevent any unnecessary death. Of course they’ll be in favor of lockdown, just like the bioethicist MD who was largely responsible for Obamacare who said we should lockdown for 12-18 months. The medical field looks at events through their own lens. Economists too.Nations and communities assume risk every day by conducting their normal business. What would happen if we shut down the interstate highway system to prevent car accident deaths? Aviators should especially understand this principle. The safest thing to do is to not fly. But that’s not an option. Come up with a plan, communicate the plan, execute the plan, debrief the plan, make changes next time.