This is what I've been saying for a while. If you look at CAPT Dwyer's Tailhook brief from this year there is a very telling sign that he basically glosses right over.
View attachment 16839 (from around time 19:00) If you look at the small red line for DHs needed to fill seats or Slate requirements, for VFA and VAQ pilots that line is magically right at the divider for those getting out and those staying in. Is it that they are that accurate at filling seats or is it that they are grabbing dudes that normally would have been put to pasture to fill the vacancies then saying that they are meeting all of the requirements? I've seen guys who thought they were going to spend the rest of their careers in the test world surprisingly make DH.
I'd love to see this graph as a trend over time. Or some analysis on the quality of the pool of eligibles now vs the pool 5 or 10 years ago.