Energy Discussion

[Randy Daytona]

I wonder what happened to all of Russia's offshore production? I remember reading a while back that oil has to trade over $100 a barrel for it to make money. Seems like they'd turn that back on if they had the ability to do so.

Russia only has about 5% of its production offshore, about 60% comes from Siberia. If those wells (or transport, or storage) are knocked offline, there is a good chance they will be frozen and then have to be re-drilled. Russia has usually sourced that expertise from the oil majors and lacks the ability to do that type of drilling itself - in other words, a good chunk of oil and gas production may be knocked offline permanently.

Production is also being interrupted in the Middle East, not just oil but LNG from Qatar whose specialized and highly refrigerated equipment is more difficult to repair / transport. We are looking at a whole new energy market: good for renewables, good for coal, and good news for exporters of hydrocarbons from the Western Hemisphere. If Venezuela gets ramped up, that could be profitable, if the other provinces let Alberta build pipelines the oil sands could help with supply- and the US is going to make bank - unless a new administration hostile to fossil fuels, the revenues it produces and the well paid workers it employs decides otherwise.

 

[taxi1]

unless a new administration hostile to fossil fuels, the revenues it produces and the well paid workers it employs

I don't think anyone is going to be hostile to revenues and well paid workers.

 

[taxi1]

Renewable energy is going to be energy security. Throw in fission and (someday) fusion.

Even if we have all the oil, the external market is going to exert control on our internal prices, e.g., diesel fuel, which is skyrocketing right when the harvest is in. A typical combine burns 200 gallons/day.

Good for the oil companies that they are making lots of money, and for the employees and stockholders of them. But that is a pretty small subset of Americans. Most are just consumers of the product.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Renewable energy is going to be energy security. Throw in fission and (someday) fusion.

Even if we have all the oil, the external market is going to exert control on our internal prices, e.g., diesel fuel, which is skyrocketing right when the harvest is in. A typical combine burns 200 gallons/day.

Good for the oil companies that they are making lots of money, and for the employees and stockholders of them. But that is a pretty small subset of Americans. Most are just consumers of the product.

I appreciate your perspective on renewables and consider them part of an all of the above mix energy strategy.

That said, I have serious reservations about our greatest strategic rival controlling the vast majority of the mining and processing of rare earths AND the production of solar panels, wind turbines and controlling equipment- that seems like a national security disaster waiting to happen.

 

[taxi1]

I appreciate your perspective on renewables and consider them part of an all of the above mix energy strategy.

That said, I have serious reservations about our greatest strategic rival controlling the vast majority of the mining and processing of rare earths AND the production of solar panels, wind turbines and controlling equipment- that seems like a national security disaster waiting to happen.

Amen on the strategic rival controlling the capability of make renewables. It is absolutely insane to me that we are ceding that to them right now, too. Just bonkers stupid. We are actually paying wind tech firms money to shelve their efforts. F***ing nuts. And our grid is a shit-show.

I'm betting if we put our heads down and addressed it, there would be good high paying jobs available in that field.

Sodium-Ion is a battery tech that we have the raw materials for. Less volumetric efficient compared to Lithium-Ion, but there's a bunch of uses where that is not a big deal. We should be funding the tech to mature it for grid storage and accelerate its adoption.

 

[SynixMan]

Will be interesting to see if this round of prolonged high fuel prices drive yet another round of EV/PHEV adoption, despite the repeal of subsidies at the behest of republican donors. Real monkey paw wish stuff. We bat it about a lot here, but a full size pickup getting 18mpg for your suburban office commute is a personal choice that carries a cost.

@Randy Daytona It’s almost as if government should subsidize production of domestic solar and batteries while using limited tariff power to limit foreign products while we make the transition and secure our energy future. Oh wait, that’s dumb!

 

[Griz882]

Will be interesting to see if this round of prolonged high fuel prices drive yet another round of EV/PHEV adoption, despite the repeal of subsidies at the behest of republican donors. Real monkey paw wish stuff. We bat it about a lot here, but a full size pickup getting 18mpg for your suburban office commute is a personal choice that carries a cost.

@Randy Daytona It’s almost as if government should subsidize production of domestic solar and batteries while using limited tariff power to limit foreign products while we make the transition and secure our energy future. Oh wait, that’s dumb!

I agree to a point. First and foremost, the U.S. government has zero business subsidizing a billion dollar industry to help them sell their cars and I’d apply this to any billion dollar industry in the U.S. regardless of politics. Regulate, offer corporate tax incentives, and son on are fine, but the market alone should dictate sale prices (the fact that EV prices have adapted to this is telling). That said, I absolutely agree that people driving insanely large truck to the office or grocery store…and then complaining about fuel prices…is just as ridiculous.

I feel like we are at an inflection point. More people probably want EV/PHEVs but the infrastructure is still lacking, especially in urban areas. I live in New England in an area that could be considered exurban and within a 10 miles radius of my home there are probably 25 to 30 publicly available EV charging ports that are free to park at while paying to charge your car. In nearby urban Boston there are hundreds of EV charging spots, but almost no free parking while you charge, meaning you basically have to pay to park and pay to charge. From my recent experience living in the very urban DC area owning an EV was actually kind of hard. This is where infrastructure needs to be built up, and yes, this is a remarkable opportunity for the “abundance agenda” types. Refocus just a few regulations and the market would take off.

As for solar panels, we are already at the right spot. The Inflation Reduction Act has made domestic solar manufacturing more attractive by improving the economics of producing solar components in the United States. These incentives accurately target different parts of the supply chain, including modules, cells, wafers, and other clean energy components rather than the simplistic “we’ll give some money to install panels.” The next step, energy storage.