I am applying as a civilian and am therefore an outsider. But I have been expanding my network and trying to use contacts on the inside whom I trust to piece together some semblance of reasoning in what's going on. So I'll dump some thoughts. Call it catharsis
I would guess that about the time when we heard that subsequent IWC boards were cancelled was when they made their decisions. That it was about then that they knew they met a quota and hence would not need the upcoming boards.
@skibum mentioned how odd it seems that they frontload one huge board rather than spreading out their quota over four boards; and that they might be losing good recruits with this model. I asked about this puzzling trend and my recruiter said that there is a new admiral in charge of recruiting whose philosophy is to "fill the funnel", that they will take as many people who qualify for the program as possible then cancel unneeded boards. This seems to be them "filling the funnel". From at least one angle, this makes sense. Less boards clogging up the schedule of admirals I suppose. Perhaps they have data to suggest that spreading out boards really does not yield better recruits. Who knows, just spit balling here.
As for the delay,
@Bluetango15 's suggestion makes a lot of good sense to my ear. If they notify everyone at the same time and the notification must come with an OCS date, scheduling a massive cohort would be a big job. And it would be a big job requiring other departments to cooperate, answer emails, do work, etc.
Personally, I look at the delay and speculate that it may be another quick round of security investigations. I know that we all had to have been approved at some level to even make it to board. But I strongly suspect that they take measures to avoid giving someone a PROREC-Y who would not pass the TS-SCI adjudication. In other words, maybe the bar to get to the board is a little lower than to get that PROREC-Y. And if that is the case, several weeks' delay would make sense. This theory would also explain why other designators already know. A smaller group means a statistically less likely chance that one or two cases "on the bubble" are holding up the whole group. Again, just stabbing in the dark right now.
Optimism: in a way, I am glad for the delay. Maybe I just tell myself this to make it through the day, but it appears that this will be a big board. A quick turnaround might have meant faster paperwork just due to a lower accession quota. I'm guessing that the cancelled boards and the long turnaround taken together presage a large class and a high selection rate which is what we all want.
If I had to put money on it, I'd guess it's more security clearance investigation. Giving a PROREC-Y to someone who might not get that level 5 clearance would be an ugly,
ugly situation for that sailor not to mention coming up short of the accession quota.
One more disclaimer: I'm just an outsider and trying to piece things together.
@exNavyOffRec would have the experience to tell you all where I'm full of shit and where I might be barking up the right tree.
Either way, I'll be a happier man when I know what I can or cannot look forward to.
