Future USS Doris Miller (CVN 81)

[123412131]

That cat (preemptive pardons) is a few years out of the bag. Besides, I don’t think Trump’s brain works like that.

He's probably aware, he just doesn't particularly care. The problem is that there are many in the administration who do care, because they either aren't going to be pardoned or the pardon won't be sufficient protection from some of the other consequences. Junior staffers, Hegseth's personnel at the Pentagon, anybody with any interest in working in a democratic-run state afterward. Political retribution is inevitable; you're not getting elected as a Democrat unless you campaign on it. It will just primarily involve salting the earth on everything related to this administration while the figureheads remain untouched. I doubt he ever leaves Florida once he's out of office, and I can't see the state AG taking much interest in lawfare against him.

 

[Brett327]

With reference to investigating and protecting Trump, it’s fairly obvious he is going to pull a Biden and issue blanket pardons to everyone involved in his administration. There will, of course, be fruitless and wasteful “investigations” just like the Fauci clown show, but that’s political theater for the base.

I'm envisioning a scope much broader than admin members. Yes, there will be mass pardons, but not everyone will earn one. Many states have criminal and civil statutes governing insider trading, bribery, fraud, tax evasion, for example. I think we'll probably see cases challenging the validity of a pardon when the elements of bribery or quid pro quo can be demonstrated - though I have zero confidence that SCOTUS will do the right thing with such a case.

 

[Brett327]

I doubt he ever leaves Florida once he's out of office

The State, County and City of New York has joined the chat.

 

[Griz882]

I'm envisioning a scope much broader than admin members. Yes, there will be mass pardons, but not everyone will earn one. Many states have criminal and civil statutes governing insider trading, bribery, fraud, tax evasion, for example. I think we'll probably see cases challenging the validity of a pardon when the elements of bribery or quid pro quo can be demonstrated - though I have zero confidence that SCOTUS will do the right thing with such a case.

I get it, but this will only open interstate legal warfare against politicians. If Texas feels harmed by some DSC member…a court case…maybe jail time. New York, sure, they’ll spend billions to hound Trump to his grave, and it will all be wasted ending with anger, distrust and even more partisan division. History will judge Trump harshly enough. I’d be happy to let him off the hook to prevent a daughter or son taking up the mantle and promises of revenge justice that could very well get them elected. The cycle needs to stop.

 

[Brett327]

I get it, but this will only open interstate legal warfare against politicians. If Texas feels harmed by some DSC member…a court case…maybe jail time. New York, sure, they’ll spend billions to hound Trump to his grave, and it will all be wasted ending with anger, distrust and even more partisan division. History will judge Trump harshly enough. I’d be happy to let him off the hook to prevent a daughter or son taking up the mantle and promises of revenge justice that could very well get them elected. The cycle needs to stop.

As I said, I'm not concerned with Trump himself. He'll be in the grave before any chance at accountability could play out. It's the rest of the little profiteers that need to answer to their crimes. The problem with saying that the cycle needs to stop is that it won't until people feel real consequences for law breaking. If the next sane administration just throws their hands up and does nothing, the same MAGA crowd - or whatever they morph into - will do it again and again when "their side" is in power. You have it backwards. The cycle stops when there's a real disincentive to committing crime. Being adjacent to politics cannot be the basis for immunity to consequence. That's a colossal moral hazard.

 

[Griz882]

As I said, I'm not concerned with Trump himself. He'll be in the grave before any chance at accountability could play out. It's the rest of the little profiteers that need to answer to their crimes. The problem with saying that the cycle needs to stop is that it won't until people feel real consequences for law breaking. If the next sane administration just throws their hands up and does nothing, the same MAGA crowd - or whatever they morph into - will do it again and again when "their side" is in power. You have it backwards. The cycle stops when there's a real disincentive to committing crime. Being adjacent to politics cannot be the basis for immunity to consequence. That's a colossal moral hazard.

I don’t necessarily disagree and I too would prefer to veer toward real justice. I just believe we need to be careful not to make it appear like a witch hunt.

 

[GroundPounder]

I get it, but this will only open interstate legal warfare against politicians. If Texas feels harmed by some DSC member…a court case…maybe jail time. New York, sure, they’ll spend billions to hound Trump to his grave, and it will all be wasted ending with anger, distrust and even more partisan division. History will judge Trump harshly enough. I’d be happy to let him off the hook to prevent a daughter or son taking up the mantle and promises of revenge justice that could very well get them elected. The cycle needs to stop.

This scene is what this topic reminds me of. If we don't get off this train, it will be the end of us.

 

[taxi1]

I don’t necessarily disagree and I too would prefer to veer toward real justice. I just believe we need to be careful not to make it appear like a witch hunt.

If the alternative to a descent into a corrupt autocracy or whatever the hell we are headed towards is to burn it all down by holding people accountable to our laws…??

 

[Griz882]

descent into a corrupt autocracy

Well, at least it is something both parties appear to support.

I’ll try to clear up my point here. If New York wants to pursue John Smith for a financial crime then by all means, investigate, prosecute, and pack him off to jail - as an individual.

If, however, it turns into the NY District Attorney hoping to see herself on TV screaming about how she is going to bring down the whole republican/Trump/MAGA/evil/oligarch regime - in an obvious effort to score low rent political points - and there is the mistake. You can flip it over to the other side of the political equation, it’s the same. We are at the point where the lines are so hardened, it won’t alter a single vote (except, perhaps in internal elections like primaries where “we the people” tend to select the worst of the worst) but it will make those hard lines, left and right, look for equitable revenge.

I’m not asking for justice to be denied or skipped for the sake of calm (although I find it comically ironic that the same voters looking for political revenge in the name of justice are willing to hand wave the actions of a violent, terrorist regime seeking a nuclear weapon for the sake of $2 gas) I am saying it simply needs to be justice focused on the individual, not political revenge.

 

[Brett327]

We are at the point where the lines are so hardened, it won’t alter a single vote

Have you seen the President’s approval ratings lately? There’s a growing sense of buyer’s remorse, even in the GOP base, especially on the economy and the war in Iran. Numbers in November will almost certainly confirm this.

I get your point, I just think your priorities are mixed up.

 

[Griz882]

Have you seen the President’s approval ratings lately? There’s a growing sense of buyer’s remorse, even in the GOP base, especially on the economy and the war in Iran. Numbers in November will almost certainly confirm this.

I get your point, I just think your priorities are mixed up.

I’ve seen the polls and my priorities are fine. I’ve come to believe that polls are simply meaningless today. My crystal ball is always a bit cloudy, but I don’t see a blue wave, or a red wave, for at least a few administrations. Yes, the House should go to the democrats, but only by the slimmest of margins. The Senate is likely to go 50/50. I am, however, convinced that no more than a sliver registered republicans are going to vote for a democrat and very few registered democrats are going to vote for a republican. The election will be decided by independents who will likely selected based on a mix of looks, message, and presentation.

 

[Gatordev]

Moving past the "will they or won't they" prosecution discussion...

I’ve come to believe that polls are simply meaningless today.

I've been listening to an interview with Todd Rose who, among other things, focuses on "private polling" versus the conventional public polling. The fundamental difference being that conventional public polling isn't utilizing bad science and their predictions are actually very good for the information they're collecting. The problem comes down to the people that are answering the questions and that they are lying due to perceived public pressure.

He has some examples where his polling methods have been extremely accurate where the usual suspects of polling have missed the mark, but overall the take away is that through manufactured (social) media or main stream media, people perceive they should believe one thing because they think all of their friends believe it, but in reality they don't actually think that way.

He has one specific example about the stated polling on Gen Z's opinion on the attack on Israel. It boiled down to just how terrible Tik Tok is (big surprise) and pushing a narrative that in reality Gen Z in private polling actually didn't really believe what media was saying they believed.

Anywho, it's an interesting look at how process can affect results.

 

[Griz882]

Moving past the "will they or won't they" prosecution discussion...



I've been listening to an interview with Todd Rose who, among other things, focuses on "private polling" versus the conventional public polling. The fundamental difference being that conventional public polling isn't utilizing bad science and their predictions are actually very good for the information they're collecting. The problem comes down to the people that are answering the questions and that they are lying due to perceived public pressure.

He has some examples where his polling methods have been extremely accurate where the usual suspects of polling have missed the mark, but overall the take away is that through manufactured (social) media or main stream media, people perceive they should believe one thing because they think all of their friends believe it, but in reality they don't actually think that way.

He has one specific example about the stated polling on Gen Z's opinion on the attack on Israel. It boiled down to just how terrible Tik Tok is (big surprise) and pushing a narrative that in reality Gen Z in private polling actually didn't really believe what media was saying they believed.

Anywho, it's an interesting look at how process can affect results.

That’s a very good take.

 

[ChuckMK23]

I am regularly polled by Marist - and I think their science and methodology is top notch they are truly an institution of elite thinkers and academics.

Home of the Marist Poll | Polls, Analysis, Learning, and More

The Marist Institute for Public Opinion (MIPO) is a survey research center. MIPO is home to the Marist Poll and conducts polls on politics, the economy, sports, technology and more at the local, state, and national level.

maristpoll.marist.edu

 

[Brett327]

I am regularly polled by Marist

No wonder polls have been so skewed lately.