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Venezuela

Griz882 said:
Exactly as much as could go right. It is all up to the people of Venezuela.
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How equivocal of you.

These same people who couldn’t shrug off an obviously corrupt Communist dictator? Call me cynical, but I’m not exactly filled with hope for the people of Venezuela to suddenly rise up and create something better because the Big Orange Gringo arrested one dude and his wife.

I also don’t expect said POTUS to back a liberal party leader down there. I think the future of Venezuela looks, if anything, even worse than it did before.
 
sevenhelmet said:
How equivocal of you.

These same people who couldn’t shrug off an obviously corrupt Communist dictator? Call me cynical, but I’m not exactly filled with hope for the people of Venezuela to suddenly rise up and create something better because the Big Orange Gringo arrested one dude and his wife.

I also don’t expect said POTUS to back a liberal party leader down there. I think the future of Venezuela looks, if anything, even worse than it did before.
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Not equivocal, just broadly accurate. As we know from Cuba it’s one thing to throw off a communist regime with the backing of the U.S. and quite another if that backing goes soft. There is no doubt that this is Trump’s thing to totally fuck up just as it is his to make successful. You seem personally predisposed to dislike the guy and see everything he does as a failure, others pretend he is perfect when he is far from it, I’m the kind that doesn’t tally the score until the game is over. In any case, what’s a “liberal” in this context?
 
Griz882 said:
Not equivocal, just broadly accurate. As we know from Cuba it’s one thing to throw off a communist regime with the backing of the U.S. and quite another if that backing goes soft. There is no doubt that this is Trump’s thing to totally fuck up just as it is his to make successful. You seem personally predisposed to dislike the guy and see everything he does as a failure, others pretend he is perfect when he is far from it, I’m the kind that doesn’t tally the score until the game is over. In any case, what’s a “liberal” in this context?
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I also don't like when people root for politicians like they are their favorite sports team.

However, by what mechanism does the U.S. achieve its strategic objectives of

1) an independent, legitimate, democratically elected Venezuelan government that is capitalist

and

b) rid Venezuela of corruption from organized crime?

You mentioned in a previous post that there is no warlordism in Venezuela. I would submit that TCOs are very warlord like.

I honestly don't see us being victorious without a large, protracted law enforcement presence of over 200,000 that we lack the resources and political will to provide. Trump seems to think that Chevron and Exxon / Mobile are just going to pump billions of dollars into their economy and everything is going to be peachy.

Perhaps closed-door conversations inside the Oval Office revolved around telling him that 'hey, you gotta provide security because they're not going to just light money on fire' but he didn't talk about that part in his speech.
 
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Brett327 said:
Based on the strength rank incompetence of DOJ's prosecutorial efforts thus far, it would be hilarious if Maduro is tried and acquitted.
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Meh, I think that taking Maduro alive was part of the deal for no military resistance. Someone high up the food chain thinks they'll be able to get him back.
 
Spekkio said:
I also don't like when people root for politicians like they are their favorite sports team.

However, by what mechanism does the U.S. achieve its strategic objectives of

1) an independent, legitimate, democratically elected Venezuelan government that is capitalist

and

b) rid Venezuela of corruption from organized crime?

You mentioned in a previous post that there is no warlordism in Venezuela. I would submit that TCOs are very warlord like.

I honestly don't see us being victorious without a large, protracted law enforcement presence of over 200,000 that we lack the resources and political will to provide.
Click to expand...
I believe that conquering corruption will be the hardest part and could take generations. I do believe that the country has a solid enough opposition to ease genuinely fair elections. Venezuela’s “Unitary Platform” is a kind of umbrella coalition (born from the old opposition of Chavez’s days, MUD). The Unitary Platform encompasses democratic parties with nominally different agendas, including the centre-left Democratic Action, the Christian Democrat Primero Justicia and smaller parties across the spectrum. The platform primarily works to shield opposition groups from government crackdowns. As a team it worked particularly well in the last election cycle and even though they couldn’t seize power, they proved to the world they legitimately won.

If the country is able to establish even a basic functioning government I think the fight against TCOs will get easier. Mexico and Columbia have both increased their activities against TCOs and if Venezuela joins in then they have fewer places to hide. Although it will be far from easy, it can happen. I doubt it would take 200,000 U.S. troops, but it will require the cooperation of the Venezuelan people.
 
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