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NEWS Russia building barracks at Syrian airport

wink

wink

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And fo
Brett327 said:
And has for decades. They may, in fact, be ramping up their presence, but the OMG factor in the press is a bit ridiculous.
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And for decades they had bases in Ukraine. No big deal, right? A little political instability and they were off to the races. Of course annexation of Syria isn't likely. But a grand deal with Assad to save his ass would make Russia far more influential in the region then they were before. And if it makes the USA look feckless, all the better.
 
Flash

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wink said:
And for decades they had bases in Ukraine. No big deal, right? A little political instability and they were off to the races. Of course annexation of Syria isn't likely. But a grand deal with Assad to save his ass would make Russia far more influential in the region then they were before. And if it makes the USA look feckless, all the better.
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Russia isn't going to win any more friends in the Middle East by helping Syria, they are only staunching the bleeding for Assad. Most of the rest of the Sunni-controlled countries, which is everyone but Iran and Iraq, aren't really fans of Assad and his alliance with Iran. Even Hezbollah's intervention on the side of Assad has cost them some of their broader regional support since Iran is seen as the enemy by much of the Sunni-dominated Arab leadership and Assad is a feckless turncoat. There has been speculation that the Saudis refusal to cut back their oil production to meet falling demand, in turn depressing oil prices, has been in part to punish Russia's support of Syria.

While Russia might sway a few opportunists like the current leadership in Egypt but it will only win them temporary favor and not lasting good will in the region. It might even turn out badly for the Russians, the last time their air force was involved in an actual war they didn't fare so well with the Georgians even bagging a Backfire. Putin better be careful for what he wishes for.
 
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Pags

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There's a lot of realpolitik here. Russians want to throw away national treasure shoring up Assad while killing ISIS? Seems to help our policy by ensuring guys we don't like get schwacked and lets us keep our hands clean of being involved with shoring up nasty dictators. There may be some elements of hoping that the Russians get their own Iraq war...
 
nittany03

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Pags said:
There's a lot of realpolitik here. Russians want to throw away national treasure shoring up Assad while killing ISIS? Seems to help our policy by ensuring guys we don't like get schwacked and lets us keep our hands clean of being involved with shoring up nasty dictators. There may be some elements of hoping that the Russians get their own Iraq war...
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Which is a possible endstate. I was just thinking, though, whether Putin's intent here is to put the kibosh on ISIS and be seen as "ending the Syria conflict." Granted, he'd have fewer scruples than us about doing so in what the West might consider a "humanitarian" way. But I'm wondering if the goal is still to be perceived as a peacemaker on the world stage, while we get egg on our faces as he quashes the conflict that we "couldn't do anything about." Which then puts more cracks in NATO as the Eastern Europeans wonder if we really are a paper tiger, giving Russia a freer hand in Europe.

Not saying that's what will happen, just wondering if that's what Putin et al want to happen.
 
wink

wink

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Flash said:
Russia isn't going to win any more friends in the Middle East by helping Syria, .... Putin better be careful for what he wishes for.
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I didn't say Russia would win fans. I understand why they would not. But you can wield influence in more ways then just friendship. I had the less friendly methods in mind. In any case. I hope your analysis is correct.
 
Recovering LSO

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Seems like the US administration is going to have to quickly choose between Assad and ISIS.

I think it's plausible that Putin is interested in going after ISIS, but there will be strings attached, i.e., Assad stays. Him jumping onboard for the "big win" against ISIS might be the thing he's looking at as buying himself some maneuver room on the larger global stage. I'm doing a lot to help you against ISIS, now get the hell out of my "internal" issues (Crimea). That's probably too simplistic, but I suspect not entirely out of left field either.
 
jmcquate

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Who knows what the Russkies are doing. It makes no sense for them to go against ISIS. They don't need oil, or an entanglement in that third world shithole, and I doubt they could project the power to make a difference.
 
Brett327

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Read some things in the last couple days suggesting that Russia was looking to "redeem themselves" vis-à-vis the West WRT Syria. Not sure I buy that, but if they could facilitate some kind of quasi-peaceful transition of power by putting pressure on Assad to slink away quietly during the night, that may be a fruitful line of effort that avoids the complete collapse of the Syrian government. Maybe we could give Assad the Falklands... or Madagascar.
 
nittany03

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Brett327

Brett327

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ChuckMK23 said:
It's going to happen.
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No it's not, but I'm curious as to why you think it will... other than residual Cold War testosterone? Russian and coalition aircraft are going to avoid each other like the plague - just like we've been doing with Iranian and Syrian aircraft.
 
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