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COVID-19

DanMa1156

Is it baseball season yet?
pilot
Contributor
And I thought that Japan was doing so much better than America due to their cultural acceptance of mask wearing and concern for the good of the group over that of individuals. Why would cases be rising there after they did such a good job of flattening the curve earlier in the year?


Personal opinion based on what I've seen in Japan... people are getting tired of the constant mask wearing, I think really for the first time. Where I used to see probably less than 1% of the population without masks and they were mostly old men I assumed had breathing problems, I now see probably about 10-15% including some younger ones. The Americans on the base I think are the worst at it and you have many who try to see what they can get away with, especially among the dependa crowd and unsurprisingly, cases are spiking on base(s) here too. Secondly, Japan had a heavily discounted tourism and indoor dining program called "Go To Japan," and "Go To Eats" (I think), that they basically offered to anyone inside of Japan already including the US military members. In short, the government subsidized 35% (?) of your hotel + train fares, and when you arrived at the hotel, if I recall correctly, they gave an additional 30% of the value of your stay in these coupons that could be redeemed at participating retailers - most often restaurants. (I took advantage of this program once and it was pretty great! Thank you Japanese tax-payer!) This spiked domestic travel within Japan and, as a result, the spread of the virus. Many Prefectural governors asked the federal government of Japan to stop it, and the gov't of Japan finally agreed to, halting the "Go To" campaigns starting on 28 Dec. Finally, I'm no Japanese Constitutional Scholar, but the Japanese government doesn't have the same authorities regarding closing businesses (or for that matter, eminent domain); what they've basically done is a variety of asking certain businesses to close, subsidizing closed hours, or reducing hours on some businesses (i.e.: hostess bars). As this pandemic has dragged on, supposedly less and less businesses are complying with the requests of the Japanese government or taking the subsidy dollars yen or they have stopped offering it (this part is not clear to me).

Separately, as it has been explained to me, Japan doesn't have quite the same problems as the U.S. in terms of lack of ICU capacity or equipment shortages, which I assume are a byproduct of ruthless American efficiency. (To be honest, I would have assumed Japan is more efficient, but I think anyone that's been here in the past decade knows that that may be true in some ways - i.e. mass transit - but the country is rapidly falling behind in terms of modern technology and their business culture of working longer not smarter and more efficiently has been difficult to change despite all the attempts to change that).

Comparing the U.S. and Japan isn't exactly apples to apples: The population complies with the Government much better. I suspect more than 15% of Americans are not wearing masks religiously, even at the peak of mask wearing; there was no domestic tourism campaign on the scale that Japan had; the American government on all levels has comparatively more power over the people than the Japanese government in the context of closing/regulating businesses, and ICU capacity isn't expected to be a problem here as I understand it.
 

AllAmerican75

FUBIJAR
None
Contributor
I figured some of you may be interested in data. Here's an aggregation of the studies looking into various therapeutic drugs for treatment of COVID-19. Interesting stuff.


Also, some Chinese researchers released a broad study that indicates that asymptomatic transmission is overblown. It's coming from China so take it with a grain of salt but it's good news.

 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
I applaud you for contributing something germane to the topic at hand.

Now, can you please post another dank meme or gif now that people have responded to my post? (Well, one of them. The one dude curious about the ICUs being overwhelmed must not care anymore since it doesn’t seem to be happening on a large scale.)
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
I figured some of you may be interested in data. Here's an aggregation of the studies looking into various therapeutic drugs for treatment of COVID-19. Interesting stuff.


Also, some Chinese researchers released a broad study that indicates that asymptomatic transmission is overblown. It's coming from China so take it with a grain of salt but it's good news.

12 domestically transmitted cases, nationwide, only two weeks ago? Seems...optimistic.

 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
Personal opinion based on what I've seen in Japan... people are getting tired of the constant mask wearing, I think really for the first time. Where I used to see probably less than 1% of the population without masks and they were mostly old men I assumed had breathing problems, I now see probably about 10-15% including some younger ones. The Americans on the base I think are the worst at it and you have many who try to see what they can get away with, especially among the dependa crowd and unsurprisingly, cases are spiking on base(s) here too. Secondly, Japan had a heavily discounted tourism and indoor dining program called "Go To Japan," and "Go To Eats" (I think), that they basically offered to anyone inside of Japan already including the US military members. In short, the government subsidized 35% (?) of your hotel + train fares, and when you arrived at the hotel, if I recall correctly, they gave an additional 30% of the value of your stay in these coupons that could be redeemed at participating retailers - most often restaurants. (I took advantage of this program once and it was pretty great! Thank you Japanese tax-payer!) This spiked domestic travel within Japan and, as a result, the spread of the virus. Many Prefectural governors asked the federal government of Japan to stop it, and the gov't of Japan finally agreed to, halting the "Go To" campaigns starting on 28 Dec. Finally, I'm no Japanese Constitutional Scholar, but the Japanese government doesn't have the same authorities regarding closing businesses (or for that matter, eminent domain); what they've basically done is a variety of asking certain businesses to close, subsidizing closed hours, or reducing hours on some businesses (i.e.: hostess bars). As this pandemic has dragged on, supposedly less and less businesses are complying with the requests of the Japanese government or taking the subsidy dollars yen or they have stopped offering it (this part is not clear to me).

Separately, as it has been explained to me, Japan doesn't have quite the same problems as the U.S. in terms of lack of ICU capacity or equipment shortages, which I assume are a byproduct of ruthless American efficiency. (To be honest, I would have assumed Japan is more efficient, but I think anyone that's been here in the past decade knows that that may be true in some ways - i.e. mass transit - but the country is rapidly falling behind in terms of modern technology and their business culture of working longer not smarter and more efficiently has been difficult to change despite all the attempts to change that).

Comparing the U.S. and Japan isn't exactly apples to apples: The population complies with the Government much better. I suspect more than 15% of Americans are not wearing masks religiously, even at the peak of mask wearing; there was no domestic tourism campaign on the scale that Japan had; the American government on all levels has comparatively more power over the people than the Japanese government in the context of closing/regulating businesses, and ICU capacity isn't expected to be a problem here as I understand it.
Very well-thought out response.

I think one of the major issues with America's covid response is the lack of appreciating the consequences of so many goalpost shifts and rule changes. If Japan, who has a deep cultural engraining of mask-wearing, is getting tired of wearing masks all the time, how can someone think that this wouldn't happen in America?

As far as the constitutional legality of shutting down businesses in Japan, an Italian judge just ruled that covid restrictions are unconstitutional. It'll be interesting to see how court cases play out over the next few years, not only in America but across the world. There's been protests against lockdowns in nearly all western European countries, they're just not covered very well by the media, making people think that protests are a uniquely American trend.

As far as equipment shortages, the common consensus is now that putting a covid patient on a ventilator is practically a death sentence. Compare this to March and April when patients were induced into comas so they could be preemptively put on a ventilator to stop the spread. I'm willing to bet that this is the reason for the ventilator shortage that everyone heard about all over the news and quite possibly the higher death rates back then. The ICU shortages seem to be particularly focused in California, which has locked down the hardest and had strict mask mandates. However, ICU capacity is usually stretched to the limit during a particularly bad flu season. So there's certainly precedent. See below:


 

AllAmerican75

FUBIJAR
None
Contributor
12 domestically transmitted cases, nationwide, only two weeks ago? Seems...optimistic.


I'm skeptical of any Chinese claims without supporting data. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590053620301154

I'm also skeptical of nearly all of the American media coverage regarding COVID-19 without links to supporting data. Throughout this whole ordeal, emotions have ruled the day and few have taken data-driven approaches to finding solutions or tempering public fears.

Very well-thought out response.

I think one of the major issues with America's covid response is the lack of appreciating the consequences of so many goalpost shifts and rule changes. If Japan, who has a deep cultural engraining of mask-wearing, is getting tired of wearing masks all the time, how can someone think that this wouldn't happen in America?

As far as the constitutional legality of shutting down businesses in Japan, an Italian judge just ruled that covid restrictions are unconstitutional. It'll be interesting to see how court cases play out over the next few years, not only in America but across the world. There's been protests against lockdowns in nearly all western European countries, they're just not covered very well by the media, making people think that protests are a uniquely American trend.

As far as equipment shortages, the common consensus is now that putting a covid patient on a ventilator is practically a death sentence. Compare this to March and April when patients were induced into comas so they could be preemptively put on a ventilator to stop the spread. I'm willing to bet that this is the reason for the ventilator shortage that everyone heard about all over the news and quite possibly the higher death rates back then. The ICU shortages seem to be particularly focused in California, which has locked down the hardest and had strict mask mandates. However, ICU capacity is usually stretched to the limit during a particularly bad flu season. So there's certainly precedent. See below:



Looking at this historically, these lockdowns and mask laws are nothing new. During the Yellow Fever epidemics of the 19th Century and the Spanish Flu Pandemic, the same policies were put into place with stringent consequences for breaking them. Each time they were ineffective. This is no different. Each time the solutions were found outside of the medical orthodoxy at the time and outside of the media and bureaucratic demagoguery of the period. It seems history is repeating itself. Too bad we have to learn this lesson every time.
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
I'm skeptical of any Chinese claims without supporting data. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590053620301154

I'm also skeptical of nearly all of the American media coverage regarding COVID-19 without links to supporting data. Throughout this whole ordeal, emotions have ruled the day and few have taken data-driven approaches to finding solutions or tempering public fears.



Looking at this historically, these lockdowns and mask laws are nothing new. During the Yellow Fever epidemics of the 19th Century and the Spanish Flu Pandemic, the same policies were put into place with stringent consequences for breaking them. Each time they were ineffective. This is no different. Each time the solutions were found outside of the medical orthodoxy at the time and outside of the media and bureaucratic demagoguery of the period. It seems history is repeating itself. Too bad we have to learn this lesson every time.
It’s not just flu epidemics. Look at all of the lessons learned from the HIV/AIDS epidemic about not stigmatizing behaviors which lead to getting the virus but focusing on treating the virus and educating people about better protecting themselves and minimizing risk rather than completely e it.

Also pretty interesting to read up on Dr. Fauci’s previous experiences.

 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
This is from a NYT article that quotes Dr. Fauci as purposefully moving the goalposts, not due to science alone, but partly due to his gut feeling, because he thinks Americans are more ready to accept the “real news”.

It’s also so strange to me that so many people would be skeptical of the vaccines. It’s not like any public figures decried the vaccine or the President’s promotion of it.

“Doing so might be discouraging to Americans, he [Fauci] said, because he is not sure there will be enough voluntary acceptance of vaccines to reach that goal. Although sentiments about vaccines in polls have bounced up and down this year, several current ones suggest that about 20 percent of Americans say they are unwilling to accept any vaccine.”

[/URL]
 

DanMa1156

Is it baseball season yet?
pilot
Contributor
Very well-thought out response.

I think one of the major issues with America's covid response is the lack of appreciating the consequences of so many goalpost shifts and rule changes. If Japan, who has a deep cultural engraining of mask-wearing, is getting tired of wearing masks all the time, how can someone think that this wouldn't happen in America?

As far as the constitutional legality of shutting down businesses in Japan, an Italian judge just ruled that covid restrictions are unconstitutional. It'll be interesting to see how court cases play out over the next few years, not only in America but across the world. There's been protests against lockdowns in nearly all western European countries, they're just not covered very well by the media, making people think that protests are a uniquely American trend.

As far as equipment shortages, the common consensus is now that putting a covid patient on a ventilator is practically a death sentence. Compare this to March and April when patients were induced into comas so they could be preemptively put on a ventilator to stop the spread. I'm willing to bet that this is the reason for the ventilator shortage that everyone heard about all over the news and quite possibly the higher death rates back then. The ICU shortages seem to be particularly focused in California, which has locked down the hardest and had strict mask mandates. However, ICU capacity is usually stretched to the limit during a particularly bad flu season. So there's certainly precedent. See below:



  1. Re mask wearing: I think we all knew from top to bottom that Americans would have a hard time accepting wearing masks. It's frustrating to see from the outside.
  2. Yeah, there are protests throughout the world. There are some "digital" protests in Japan as well, although any physical ones have been small scale.
  3. I'll give the benefit of the doubt to policy makers regarding the ventilators. We didn't know much about the virus at all in March/April and the medical professionals were the ones screaming for the demand of ventilators. Regarding other equipment shortages I meant PPE, masks, etc. I know my cousin-in-law is a practicing nurse in NY and she's had to re-use some of her PPE that previously would not have been re-used throughout the pandemic.
As far as Japan goes, in general though, the feeling is that the federal-level government has not done enough. While a small portion of the population may have reduced how often and how much they wear a mask, certainly most people think their federal response has been too little too late. Furthermore, while the graph looks scary at how badly cases are increasing, we are talking about 1000-2000 cases per day and a little under 30,000 total people having the virus country-wide as of last week (it was at ~27,500 people before I left for my Christmas 96). For reference: Japan is about the size of California but with about half of the population of the entire U.S. There are vast stretches of Japan that are wild or unsettled, typically due to extremely rugged terrain. The population density throughout the majority of where people live in Japan is much higher than the U.S. I personally think the Japanese culture of mask-wearing, bowing instead of handshakes, putting up dividers between people at restaurants, etc. has been very successful in keeping the numbers as low as they have been. From my perception from what I hear back home and see on the news (which I realize is skewed), there is pent up demand for bar-going/restaurant going. From what I've seen here, while people are still going to restaurants, particularly where you have your own booth or area that's physically divided by others with a plastic shield, the izakayas (bars with small dishes of food available) are empty or nearly empty most nights when I've passed them, and not just the American haunts but locals' favorites too.

And again, all of that is with a heavily subsidized domestic tourism campaign and the numbers are drastically less than anywhere in the US as far as I can tell.
 
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SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
  1. Re mask wearing: I think we all knew from top to bottom that Americans would have a hard time accepting wearing masks. It's frustrating to see from the outside.
  2. Yeah, there are protests throughout the world. There are some "digital" protests in Japan as well, although any physical ones have been small scale.
  3. I'll give the benefit of the doubt to policy makers regarding the ventilators. We didn't know much about the virus at all in March/April and the medical professionals were the ones screaming for the demand of ventilators. Regarding other equipment shortages I meant PPE, masks, etc. I know my cousin-in-law is a practicing nurse in NY and she's had to re-use some of her PPE that previously would not have been re-used throughout the pandemic.
As far as Japan goes, in general though, the feeling is that the federal-level government has not done enough. While a small portion of the population may have reduced how often and how much they wear a mask, certainly most people think their federal response has been too little too late. Furthermore, while the graph looks scary at how badly cases are increasing, we are talking about 1000-2000 cases per day and a little under 30,000 total people having the virus country-wide as of last week (it was at ~27,500 people before I left for my Christmas 96). For reference: Japan is about the size of California but with about half of the population of the entire U.S. There are vast stretches of Japan that are wild or unsettled, typically due to extremely rugged terrain. The population density throughout the majority of where people live in Japan is much higher than the U.S. I personally think the Japanese culture of mask-wearing, bowing instead of handshakes, putting up dividers between people at restaurants, etc. has been very successful in keeping the numbers as low as they have been. From my perception from what I hear back home and see on the news (which I realize is skewed), there is pent up demand for bar-going/restaurant going. From what I've seen here, while people are still going to restaurants, particularly where you have your own booth or area that's physically divided by others with a plastic shield, the izakayas (bars with small dishes of food available) are empty or nearly empty most nights when I've passed them, and not just the American haunts but locals' favorites too.
I don’t think the mask wearing has had a hard time being accepted in America; in my experience it’s been quite the opposite. When ships are sinking people scramble about the decks to find whatever will help them stay afloat; they just don’t want to spend an inordinate amount of time waiting to get rescued. That’s what I see happening here. People were willing to put up with restrictions and measures because they were assured by people they trusted that it was only “temporary”.

If you look at normalized positive tests, meaning not raw numbers but adjusted for amount of tests given, the “Thanksgiving surge” wasn’t a thing. But more people did go out and get tested because they were nervous or thought it was prudent, not because they had symptoms. Just goes to show that graphs can be made to look super scary if that’s what the graph maker intends.

Restaurants and bars (those that are still open) have overwhelmingly changed the way they’re conducting business. Of course, everyone’s experience is all subject to regionalism and whatever sort of restrictions their commands have in place, but I’ve not seen with my own eyes anyplace operating “normally”. I haven’t seen one person at the grocery store not wearing a mask. And for the short time when we were allowed to go out to eat, dividers were up tables were distanced and no one was sitting in adjacent booths. Of course, masks were only worn whilst transiting to or from the table in accordance with health ordinances, because the science shows that covid isn’t spread when people are seated and only standing.

Would love some perspective from folks in the fleet when they think ships will make port calls again. I must admit I feel bad for our students right now; I don’t see these restrictions going away anytime soon. Hard to talk up how great fleet life is when it’s going to consist of possibly several months straight at sea. Following the student meme pages is certainly interesting; I see lots of JOs still getting out even with only the cargo operators hiring. The fix to the pilot shortage might be only temporary.
 

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
If you look at normalized positive tests, meaning not raw numbers but adjusted for amount of tests given, the “Thanksgiving surge” wasn’t a thing. But more people did go out and get tested because they were nervous or thought it was prudent, not because they had symptoms. Just goes to show that graphs can be made to look super scary if that’s what the graph maker intends.

Cases, hospitalizations and deaths from COVID in December are at their highest levels in this country since the beginning of this pandemic. I'd say the surge is real, no matter how you look at it.
 
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DanMa1156

Is it baseball season yet?
pilot
Contributor
I don’t think the mask wearing has had a hard time being accepted in America; in my experience it’s been quite the opposite. When ships are sinking people scramble about the decks to find whatever will help them stay afloat; they just don’t want to spend an inordinate amount of time waiting to get rescued. That’s what I see happening here. People were willing to put up with restrictions and measures because they were assured by people they trusted that it was only “temporary”.

If you look at normalized positive tests, meaning not raw numbers but adjusted for amount of tests given, the “Thanksgiving surge” wasn’t a thing. But more people did go out and get tested because they were nervous or thought it was prudent, not because they had symptoms. Just goes to show that graphs can be made to look super scary if that’s what the graph maker intends.

Restaurants and bars (those that are still open) have overwhelmingly changed the way they’re conducting business. Of course, everyone’s experience is all subject to regionalism and whatever sort of restrictions their commands have in place, but I’ve not seen with my own eyes anyplace operating “normally”. I haven’t seen one person at the grocery store not wearing a mask. And for the short time when we were allowed to go out to eat, dividers were up tables were distanced and no one was sitting in adjacent booths. Of course, masks were only worn whilst transiting to or from the table in accordance with health ordinances, because the science shows that covid isn’t spread when people are seated and only standing.

Would love some perspective from folks in the fleet when they think ships will make port calls again. I must admit I feel bad for our students right now; I don’t see these restrictions going away anytime soon. Hard to talk up how great fleet life is when it’s going to consist of possibly several months straight at sea. Following the student meme pages is certainly interesting; I see lots of JOs still getting out even with only the cargo operators hiring. The fix to the pilot shortage might be only temporary.

I assume the bold part is sarcastic?

As far as port calls go... I think we are years away from what we knew as port calls. I think you'll see more beer on the piers, but personal opinion, leaderhip on the 4 star level talks the game of "caring about morale" while underway, but doesn't seem to be doing anything about it. I really think we are several years away from "real" port calls again.

Separately, damage has been done to America's reputation as a clean, hygienic society. Assuming everyone will suddenly allow us back in is also a bad assumption in the short-medium term. I'll use Operation Christmas Drop as an example: look how many countries declined participation this year, supposedly because they were worried about receiving items from "dirty American hands."
 

exNavyOffRec

Well-Known Member
I assume the bold part is sarcastic?

As far as port calls go... I think we are years away from what we knew as port calls. I think you'll see more beer on the piers, but personal opinion, leaderhip on the 4 star level talks the game of "caring about morale" while underway, but doesn't seem to be doing anything about it. I really think we are several years away from "real" port calls again.

Separately, damage has been done to America's reputation as a clean, hygienic society. Assuming everyone will suddenly allow us back in is also a bad assumption in the short-medium term. I'll use Operation Christmas Drop as an example: look how many countries declined participation this year, supposedly because they were worried about receiving items from "dirty American hands."

Can you imagine how morale would be if we were back in the early 90's when there was no or very limited email on ships and the main communication was letters? The thought of going on a deployment with no port calls is not an enjoyable one.
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
Cases, hospitalizations and deaths from COVID in December are at their highest levels in this country since the beginning of this pandemic. I'd say the surge is real, no matter how you look at it.
So you’re saying we’re only two weeks away?

2864428645
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
I assume the bold part is sarcastic?

As far as port calls go... I think we are years away from what we knew as port calls. I think you'll see more beer on the piers, but personal opinion, leaderhip on the 4 star level talks the game of "caring about morale" while underway, but doesn't seem to be doing anything about it. I really think we are several years away from "real" port calls again.

Separately, damage has been done to America's reputation as a clean, hygienic society. Assuming everyone will suddenly allow us back in is also a bad assumption in the short-medium term. I'll use Operation Christmas Drop as an example: look how many countries declined participation this year, supposedly because they were worried about receiving items from "dirty American hands."
Why would you assume it’s sarcastic? America is following the science, remember? If the science weren’t there, how could restaurants be safely opened?

As for Operation Christmas Drop, those countries are just following the science that covid lives forever on surfaces. I’m glad that our dirty taxpayer dollars didn’t go to waste on it and that it gets cut out in the future.

I agree with you about the port calls. Super glad going back to the fleet isn’t in the cards for me. And I don’t think it’s just the four-star level that thinks that way. “Sacrifices must be made” and “if I can deal with it so can you” seem to be about par for the course.
 
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