NEWS Bumper Boats in the SCS

[Pags]

I think we know what happens when you run aground on a reef.

Captain of that sweep was my neighbor. Wreck was brought back to Sasebo and we sent Sailors over there looking for parts for INSURV prep.

 

[Hair Warrior]

Why the sudden spike in Chinese maritime aggression, anyways? I know they've always been quick to give the Japanese grief, but it seems like they're in the headlines more and more these days regarding their interaction with all of their neighbors, sans Russia.

I think it is several factors, most notably Xi Jinping is a lot more assertive than previous leaders and has a a more capable navy and coast guard to back up Chinese claims.

I am totally naïve when it comes to world politics. But a common negotiation tactic is to claim more than you are willing to settle for.

Occam's razor: China needs the food to fuel its desired rise.

The Pacific and SCS feed about 3B humans per week of the 4B who live in East Asia. None of the countries in that region has the climate, John Deeres, or supply chains we do - easy to forget how much "grain security" the U.S. possesses. China has a one child policy that was only ever meant to be temporary. China sees Japan struggling with negative population growth, and the burden it places on the young population. So, the one child policy must end, and you gotta feed people.

All of this basically sums up as: If you want to fuel a massive national expansion (of human population, of economic might, and of military might) you need a certain minimum quantity of raw, biological inputs. You need to free up more of your population from basic food production by making food accessible.

It's a resource war for 10-50 years from now. An army marches on its stomach. Kind of a "Who cares if it's legal - just get the food, feed your people, win the resource war, and write history later once we outnumber yall." mentality

 

[Uncle Fester]

So...China's going to grow rice on those reefs? China's food production is as opaque as the rest of their domestic-use production, but if they're not self-sufficient it's not for lack of arable land.

The SCS sees an enormous amount of the world's surface traffic pass through it, not to mention the economic resources of the area in itself (the PCA ruling was about China violating the Philippines' EEZ). China is essentially trying to turn the SCS inside the Nine-Dash Line into a sort of inland lake. China's for all intents and purposes annexing a huge chunk of seaspace that by international law belongs to other countries, and they've calculated, probably correctly, that no one is going to go to war over fish and specks of rock. They'll weather this stern scolding from the UN and keep on playing the long game.

 

[hscs]

So...China's going to grow rice on those reefs? China's food production is as opaque as the rest of their domestic-use production, but if they're not self-sufficient it's not for lack of arable land.

The SCS sees an enormous amount of the world's surface traffic pass through it, not to mention the economic resources of the area in itself (the PCA ruling was about China violating the Philippines' EEZ). China is essentially trying to turn the SCS inside the Nine-Dash Line into a sort of inland lake. China's for all intents and purposes annexing a huge chunk of seaspace that by international law belongs to other countries, and they've calculated, probably correctly, that no one is going to go to war over fish and specks of rock. They'll weather this stern scolding from the UN and keep on playing the long game.

They may not grow rice on those islands, but they can sure protect fishing fleets from them.

 

[Randy Daytona]

So...China's going to grow rice on those reefs? China's food production is as opaque as the rest of their domestic-use production, but if they're not self-sufficient it's not for lack of arable land.

The SCS sees an enormous amount of the world's surface traffic pass through it, not to mention the economic resources of the area in itself (the PCA ruling was about China violating the Philippines' EEZ). China is essentially trying to turn the SCS inside the Nine-Dash Line into a sort of inland lake. China's for all intents and purposes annexing a huge chunk of seaspace that by international law belongs to other countries, and they've calculated, probably correctly, that no one is going to go to war over fish and specks of rock. They'll weather this stern scolding from the UN and keep on playing the long game.

From CNBC http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/21/how-hungry-is-china-for-the-worlds-food.html

Chinese choices at the table have changed significantly in the last few decades, with consumption of grains and vegetables making up a smaller share of the typical household diet, as appetites have increased for meat, seafood, dairy products and eggs...But while Chinese consumer's tastes have shifted, the nation's farmers haven't been able to keep up with demand. That's not likely to change anytime soon.

Despite its vast size, China is land poor — with only 20 acres of arable land per 100 people — according to the World Bank...The result is a boom in demand for food imports that has been a windfall for U.S. farmers...To feed its rising middle class, China has, often reluctantly, turned to other global food producers..."China's inability to meet all the increased demand from domestic production renders exciting opportunities to food exporting countries such as Australia," glowed a 2012 report on China's booming appetite for food imports by the Australia's Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry.

I would agree with the second paragraph; however although China's slowing economy may reduce a need for imports of raw materials, it does not seem to reduce the need for food or energy.

 

[danpass]

Why the sudden spike in Chinese maritime aggression, anyways? I know they've always been quick to give the Japanese grief, but it seems like they're in the headlines more and more these days regarding their interaction with all of their neighbors, sans Russia.

In the April 2012 Scarborough Shoals incident between China and the Philippines the US left the Philippines in the wind. So if the US won't back them let's see who else they won'T back up, a likely trigger leading to an accelerated Chinese planning phase resulting in this aggression.

Since UNCLOS isn't strong enough for the Chinese to even wipe their ass with the recent 'win' for the Philippines concerning the shoals is irrelevant.

 

[Flash]

They may not grow rice on those islands, but they can sure protect fishing fleets from them.

The fishing haul from the South China Sea is only a drop in the bucket of they need, it is more about control and asserting it where they can and especially convenient in an area where many of their imports and exports (Korean and Japanese too) sail through.

In the April 2012 Scarborough Shoals incident between China and the Philippines the US left the Philippines in the wind. So if the US won't back them let's see who else they won'T back up, a likely trigger leading to an accelerated Chinese planning phase resulting in this aggression.

When the shoal isn't even technically land or territorial waters it doesn't trigger any of our treaty responsibilities.

Since UNCLOS isn't strong enough for the Chinese to even wipe their ass with the recent 'win' for the Philippines concerning the shoals is irrelevant.

China's refusal to accede or even acknowledge the decision except to criticize it undercuts their efforts to be seen a responsible nation internationally. It may not matter to their friends or enemies but their are plenty of countries in the middle that will take note of it.

 

[danpass]

When the shoal isn't even technically land or territorial waters it doesn't trigger any of our treaty responsibilities.

The price of inaction is being paid now and will endure for some time. All because some legalese wasn't met.

China's refusal to accede or even acknowledge the decision except to criticize it undercuts their efforts to be seen a responsible nation internationally. It may not matter to their friends or enemies but their are plenty of countries in the middle that will take note of it.

Countries over there used to ask when the US would come. In these Obama years they've wondered IF the US would come. The inaction at the Shoals did us no favors at all. What if those in the middle decide to make other friends now? "Ok fellas at least we know we can't trust the Chinese, but can we rely on the USA? "

 

[Hair Warrior]

Concur with Randy Daytona and Flash. In addition to being basically about fisheries/food, SCS control also does a couple other things for China...

- owning gas/oil/mineral rights underneath the fisheries
- pretending to own maritime & airspace shipping transit control (i.e. enforced identification/vbss now; future end state: taxation)
- as a "proof of concept" or test-case of int'l willingness to let China take what it wants/ see what China can "get away with" (future end state: Taiwan)
- partial distraction from a number of other Chinese activities (i.e. the world can't scold China for everything; other offenses slide by)

 

[Flash]

The price of inaction is being paid now and will endure for some time. All because some legalese wasn't met.

It isn't legalese, what exactly are we going to do for the Filipinos there anyways? I don't think they have even asked for our assistance in the dispute.

Countries over there used to ask when the US would come. In these Obama years they've wondered IF the US would come. The inaction at the Shoals did us no favors at all. What if those in the middle decide to make other friends now? "Ok fellas at least we know we can't trust the Chinese, but can we rely on the USA? "

Really? So the first US ships being based in Singapore, Vietnam asking us to lift arms sales embargo, the Phillipines agreeing to a new military basing agreement, and us doing just that, all under the current administration is them wondering if the US is going to be around? Quit drinking whatever kool aid you have been serving yourself and pay attention to the real world.

 

[danpass]

Really? So the first US ships being based in Singapore, Vietnam asking us to lift arms sales embargo, the Phillipines agreeing to a new military basing agreement, and us doing just that, all under the current administration is them wondering if the US is going to be around? Quit drinking whatever kool aid you have been serving yourself and pay attention to the real world.

All things that should have happened four or more years ago, before China started seizing things.

 

[Brett327]

All things that should have happened four or more years ago, before China started seizing things.

So, during the Bush administration? China's intentions to expand in the SCS aren't anything new.

 

[danpass]

So, during the Bush administration? China's intentions to expand in the SCS aren't anything new.

Well, now they've got it.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

So, during the Bush administration? China's intentions to expand in the SCS aren't anything new.

I'm bad at math, but was Bush in office four years ago?

 

[Beans]

I'm bad at math, but was Bush in office four years ago?

He means four years before we started making those moves in WestPac.