War in Israel

[Randy Daytona]

Israel is staring at a demographics calamity. Or opportunity, depending on where you sit. But definitely change.

Both Israeli Arabs and the ultra-orthodox Haredi are out-reproducing the more liberal, secular element. The Haredi are the ones enabling/driving the hard right shift. They don't serve in military and help with the nation's defense, but they do vote. They are at 13% of the population now.

For Gaza, 50% of the population is below the age of 18.

That demographic change you emphasized is noteworthy. 2 other countries with troubles right now also have their problems: China and Ukraine.

Nestlé to close baby formula plant in Ireland as births in China fall | Fortune

Smarties and KitKat maker Nestlé’s Askeaton, Ireland, factory will shut owing to fewer births in China.

fortune.com

The number of newborn babies in China has declined sharply from some 18 million per year in 2016 to fewer than 9 million projected in 2023,”

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/22/1155943055/ukraine-low-birth-rate-russia-war

In January 2021, a year before Russia's full-scale invasion, the fertility rate was 1.16, according to national statistics. She says Ukrainian demographers are projecting the fertility rate could fall as low as 0.55 in 2023, though official statistics are not available.

 

[taxi1]

In January 2021, a year before Russia's full-scale invasion, the fertility rate was 1.16, according to national statistics. She says Ukrainian demographers are projecting the fertility rate could fall as low as 0.55 in 2023, though official statistics are not available.

That is an insane demographic cliff. A sustainable replacement rate is about 2.1 or so. They will have open up to immigration.

 

[sevenhelmet]

That is an insane demographic cliff. A sustainable replacement rate is about 2.1 or so. They will have open up to immigration.

I was thinking the same thing, and I don't believe those stats take into account deaths due to the war, which are significant.

Total worldwide birth rate is 2.3, and even that number seems to be alarming to people (in 1950, it was about 5). I tend to fall on the side of us having overpopulated the planet already, so I opine that while a smaller population isn't necessarily a bad thing in itself, population decline is generally a pretty ugly proposition.

 

[Randy Daytona]

I was thinking the same thing, and I don't believe those stats take into account deaths due to the war, which are significant.

Total worldwide birth rate is 2.3, and even that number seems to be alarming to people (in 1950, it was about 5). I tend to fall on the side of us having overpopulated the planet already, so I opine that while a smaller population isn't necessarily a bad thing in itself, population decline is generally a pretty ugly proposition.

The article from NPR did not mention a number in regards to war deaths, but it did say:

But in Ukraine, the preexisting low rates combined with the mass exodus of more than 8 million people have the potential to leave the country with historically low numbers of potential parents, rendering a boom unlikely.

 

[GroundPounder]

The article from NPR did not mention a number in regards to war deaths, but it did say:

But in Ukraine, the preexisting low rates combined with the mass exodus of more than 8 million people have the potential to leave the country with historically low numbers of potential parents, rendering a boom unlikely.

General "Buck" Turgidson:
Doctor, you mentioned the ratio of ten women to each man. Now, wouldn't that necessitate the abandonment of the so-called monogamous sexual relationship, I mean, as far as men were concerned?

Dr. Strangelove:
Regrettably, yes. But it is, you know, a sacrifice required for the future of the human race. I hasten to add that since each man will be required to do prodigious... service along these lines, the women will have to be selected for their sexual characteristics which will have to be of a highly stimulating nature.

Ambassador de Sadesky:
I must confess, you have an astonishingly good idea there, Doctor.

 

[SynixMan]

Interesting article on Slate about the impact of Pres. Biden's support on domestic politics--specifically, the disconnect between the president's reflexive and broad support for Israel's continuing action in Gaza and the views of younger voters that will be vital to his potential re-election.

"When asked if the U.S. should send weapons and supplies to Israel, 59 percent of respondents under 30 said it should not. An even more resounding 64 percent of those between age 30 and 44—a bracket more likely to vote that carries the whole millennial generation and part of Gen X—said the U.S. should not."

Beyond the impact on the 2024 presidential election, this is interesting as a trend for US-Israeli politics as a whole...

One consideration is this is likely Gen Z's first time having to recon with Middle East politics that isn't related to Iraq/Afghanistan/ISIS. I'd argue that simplistic views on Israel and it being led by Bibi during most of their adult lives hasn't helped either. Hopefully some learning can occur. While at times I lament the age of POTUS46, in this (and Ukraine) his leadership has been excellent, with moral clarity on the threats being faced. His public comments while visiting Israel last week were quite excellent as well, if not under-reported.

Sadly I'm with @Brett327 though, there will be a million more shiny objects between now and Nov 2024.

 

[sevenhelmet]

One consideration is this is likely Gen Z's first time having to recon with Middle East politics that isn't related to Iraq/Afghanistan/ISIS. I'd argue that simplistic views on Israel and it being led by Bibi during most of their adult lives hasn't helped either. Hopefully some learning can occur. While at times I lament the age of POTUS46, in this (and Ukraine) his leadership has been excellent, with moral clarity on the threats being faced. His public comments while visiting Israel last week were quite excellent as well, if not under-reported.

Sadly I'm with @Brett327 though, there will be a million more shiny objects between now and Nov 2024.

Agreed largely. Stats I've read recently seem to indicate that the support for Israel may tend to increase as a population ages- current generations (X, Millenials, and even Boomers) had lower rates of support for Israel when they were younger. I'd link the source, but I can't find it this morning for some reason.

 

[Random8145]

One consideration is this is likely Gen Z's first time having to recon with Middle East politics that isn't related to Iraq/Afghanistan/ISIS. I'd argue that simplistic views on Israel and it being led by Bibi during most of their adult lives hasn't helped either. Hopefully some learning can occur. While at times I lament the age of POTUS46, in this (and Ukraine) his leadership has been excellent, with moral clarity on the threats being faced. His public comments while visiting Israel last week were quite excellent as well, if not under-reported.

Sadly I'm with @Brett327 though, there will be a million more shiny objects between now and Nov 2024.

Is it really Biden's leadership though? I'd think it's more his inner circle behind the scenes as he himself has multiple times said how he's not supposed to stay up there answering questions.

 

[sevenhelmet]

Is it really Biden's leadership though? I'd think it's more his inner circle behind the scenes as he himself has multiple times said how he's not supposed to stay up there answering questions.

Yeah, if you can’t do it all by yourself, you’re not a real leader, huh?

 

[Random8145]

Yeah, if you can’t do it all by yourself, you’re not a real leader, huh?

No, that is not what I meant, my point is that he seems too mentally lost to be able to be making such decisions. I could be wrong though, but he clearly has had a mental decline. So I wonder if he is more a puppet figure in the way Brezhnev was.

 

[JTS11]

No, that is not what I meant, my point is that he seems too mentally lost to be able to be making such decisions. I could be wrong though, but he clearly has had a mental decline. So I wonder if he is more a puppet figure in the way Brezhnev was.

Honestly, I don't detect this at all. Sure, he stutters sometimes, misspeaks sometimes, and is not a spring chicken.

It's become orthodoxy on RW media that he's senile, but if you actually watch any of his press conferences, it's clear he has a firm grasp of the issues.

I may not agree with all of his policies, but this narrative is ginned up BS IMO.

 

[Random8145]

Honestly, I don't detect this at all. Sure, he stutters sometimes, misspeaks sometimes, and is not a spring chicken.

It's become orthodoxy on RW media that he's senile, but if you actually watch any of his press conferences, it's clear he has a firm grasp of the issues.

I may not agree with all of his policies, but this narrative is ginned up BS IMO.

Honestly, not to me. I get what you are saying about RW media,, but he does not strike me at all as the one in charge. He just is coherent enough to (usually) speak okay, and even then sometimes has issues. I remember him very clearly from his VP days and while he was a loudmouth and often a buffoon from his gaffes, he wasn't senile acting the way he is now.

I have a hard time believing he's the brains behind the strategizing on Ukraine and Israel and so forth.

 

[JTS11]

I have a hard time believing he's the brains behind the strategizing on Ukraine and Israel and so forth.

No, he's not the brains behind the strategy. I'm not sure you understand how the Executive branch works.

 

[Brett327]

I could be wrong though, but he clearly has had a mental decline. So I wonder if he is more a puppet figure in the way Brezhnev was.

Let's be honest, Reagan was WAY more affected by age than Biden is now.

 

[Spekkio]

No, that is not what I meant, my point is that he seems too mentally lost to be able to be making such decisions. I could be wrong though, but he clearly has had a mental decline. So I wonder if he is more a puppet figure in the way Brezhnev was.

Biden comes across as more "in charge" than Bush 43, who let his cabinet run amok (to the detriment of the United States).

Yeah, sometimes he doesn't appear the best in front of a camera, but that doesn't mean anything in regards to how the government is or isn't functioning. Biden has had clear policy objectives and has mostly achieved them, even when facing staunch opposition. Whether you agree with him or not, you can't deny he has been a very effective President... meaning, he has been able to institute most of his platform objectives.

And I'll say that when it comes to Russia and Palestine getting froggy... it helps that this man has over 50 years of experience in DC politics to draw upon. We've seen the situation in Ukraine before, except it was Afghanistan. And we've seen the situation in Israel / Palestine many, many times before. We're executing a playbook that's older than most people reading these forums.

I have a hard time believing he's the brains behind the strategizing on Ukraine and Israel and so forth.

No President is. He says something broad like "I want to support Ukraine economically to prevent a Russian takeover, but I'm not going to commit forces." Then his cabinet and service chiefs take that for action and present a plan within those bounds.