Folks at Lexington institute think it will happen by 2012. Their reasoning apparently reflects navy efforts to be proactive in the current budget process rather than wait for the hits. At a recent luncheon a close friend and classmate who retired as a 4 star last year indicated navy and air force were going to bear the brunt of big cuts in did so navy is trying to do it in a way that has least impact on ops hence use of Vinson recore. In my day we had 16 carriers and during my career as we drew down I sweated two RIFs. This may resurrect the internal debate for smaller cheaper carriers in more numbers. http://lexingtoninstitutu.org