Weather

[ea6bflyr]

The Rowe Creek complex has been burning for a month or two in Oregon, and yet it remains highly active. From last night‘s status activity…my bold font.

Firefighters are preparing for a challenging night on the Rowe Creek Complex. High temperatures, along with relative humidity levels that dropped below 10% today, and extremely dry fuels have combined to increase fire activity in multiple locations of the fire. Crews have been briefed on these hazards and are prepared to adjust their tactics as conditions may change.

A Red Flag Warning specific to the fire area remains in effect through 11 p.m. A large smoke column with a pyrocumulus cloud developed over the fire throughout the day and was visible from surrounding communities. If the column collapses, it can push winds, smoke and embers outward in unexpected directions. This can result in long-distance spotting, new spot fires and rapid fire spread. Poor overnight humidity recovery could also allow vegetation to remain dry and receptive to embers through the night.

Here's a good explanation of the Pyrocumulus Cloud...pretty amazing as a micro-climate.

 

[taxi1]

Interesting note from fire suppression efforts…

Yesterday an Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) conducted firing operations in the Grouse Creek area, tying the fire into dozer line near Chickamin and Grouse Creeks and helping secure this challenging area, where gusty, erratic winds from recent thunderstorms have contributed to active fire spread.

So basically they had a quadcopter dropping napalm. Nice!

https://share.watchduty.org/i/108855?ts=1786839298000

 

[Randy Daytona]

Forecasting for Hurricane Isaias was fascinating. Traditional models had the storm west of Biloxi; however, the Google DeepMind AI predicted around Eglin AFB with a stronger landfall.

Congrats to Google - it was impressive.

 

[taxi1]

Forecasting for Hurricane Isaias was fascinating. Traditional models had the storm west of Biloxi; however, the Google DeepMind AI predicted around Eglin AFB with a stronger landfall.

Congrats to Google - it was impressive.

In August, the Google folks published a paper in Nature talking about their model. Pretty interesting stuff.

Operational tropical cyclone forecasting with AI - Nature

An AI forecasting system called WeatherNext Cyclones can predict the track, intensity (maximum wind speed) and size of tropical cyclones with an accuracy gain over leading operational models comparable to a decade of progress in numerical forecasting.

www.nature.com

 

[Griz882]

In August, the Google folks published a paper in Nature talking about their model. Pretty interesting stuff.

Operational tropical cyclone forecasting with AI - Nature

An AI forecasting system called WeatherNext Cyclones can predict the track, intensity (maximum wind speed) and size of tropical cyclones with an accuracy gain over leading operational models comparable to a decade of progress in numerical forecasting.

www.nature.com

I think Ask Jeeves could do a better job than my area weather readers.

 

[Gatordev]

I think Ask Jeeves could do a better job than my area weather readers.

I've mentioned this before, but I think the much bigger problem is that there's more iterative non-human prediction going on over the short-term that has replaced the conventional forecaster. In my region, I'll see wide swings of predictions over the course of 12 hours as the weather develops. But usually the prediction at hour 12 ends up matching hour 1. A human forecaster would cull that iterative noise more effectively.

This last storm passage is a perfect example. For two nights, it said it was going to be VFR with some rain all night. It was not.

This is kind of analogous, albeit on a bigger scale, to when the Navy replaced their local forecasters with centralized forecasters. The centralized forecasters didn't know the local weather patterns, so they'd be way off during more dynamic weather. Except now the local iterative predictive models do know the local patterns and they seem to be worse at prediction.

 

[sevenhelmet]

I've mentioned this before, but I think the much bigger problem is that there's more iterative non-human prediction going on over the short-term that has replaced the conventional forecaster. In my region, I'll see wide swings of predictions over the course of 12 hours as the weather develops. But usually the prediction at hour 12 ends up matching hour 1. A human forecaster would cull that iterative noise more effectively.

This last storm passage is a perfect example. For two nights, it said it was going to be VFR with some rain all night. It was not.

This is kind of analogous, albeit on a bigger scale, to when the Navy replaced their local forecasters with centralized forecasters. The centralized forecasters didn't know the local weather patterns, so they'd be way off during more dynamic weather. Except now the local iterative predictive models do know the local patterns and they seem to be worse at prediction.

As ever, being your own weather forecaster is an asset in aviation, among other outdoor pursuits.

The windy.com forecast still seems to be among the best, at least in my neck of the woods.

 

[Griz882]

The TH-1 “helicopter on a stick” at Whiting got kicked around a bit by the hurricane.

 

[ChuckMK23]

The TH-1 “helicopter on a stick” at Whiting got kicked around a bit by the hurricane.

View attachment 46354

Where did the VT/HT fleet escape to?

 

[Seawolf42]

What is the Bu number on the tail of the TH-1

 

[CommodoreMid]

The TH-1 “helicopter on a stick” at Whiting got kicked around a bit by the hurricane.

View attachment 46354

Oof. Who pays for/does the repairs for the planes on sticks anyways? I know occasionally in Jax the chiefs messes would clean the P-2 and P-3, but don’t know how the base kept them up overall.

 

[ea6bflyr]

What is the Bu number on the tail of the TH-1

Looks like 157807? (hard to make out the last digit)…. Which lines up with TH-1 BUNOs

157806-157850 TH-1L

 

[Griz882]

Looks like 157807? (hard to make out the last digit)…. Which lines up with TH-1 BUNOs

That’s it. The old Trojan took a beating as well…



I found all these images on FB.

 

[Griz882]

Where did the VT/HT fleet escape to?

According to FB they stayed put, but I can’t verify that.



These photos are all from the “Aircraft Gate Guardians and Planes on Pedestals” group.

 

[Griz882]

Oof. Who pays for/does the repairs for the planes on sticks anyways? I know occasionally in Jax the chiefs messes would clean the P-2 and P-3, but don’t know how the base kept them up overall.

Great question. When I was last in the federal workforce, they were managed under a DoD instruction (DoDI 4715 maybe?) that put responsibility on the base Cultural Resource Manager who often passed it off to the facilities manger or better yet a volunteer group. The army has been working hard to get rid of all their outdoor displays like tanks, helicopters, and cannon for quite some time - often with little success. I’m not sure what the navy thinks of them but I do remember when they got rid of that most expensive historic object…a ship (still in the water) when the NHRC sold off the USS Barry (DD-933) for scrap. CRM guys see them as a cash drain and the old timers love them.