degree of certitude does not equal military.
Don’t count on anything. Do all that you can on your end, and that is all that you can do. I don’t know if this helps, but two of my Navy buddies commissioned in December, reported in February went through IFS(finished April/May), and are in API now. I reported the middle of June, and started API in the beginning of July with the Marines. The catch was that I had to wait five months from commissioning to report to active duty and hence get a paycheck.
Flight management also screwed them. They had PCS orders to FL, and all of a sudden, they are going to Corpus, which means another PCS. They don’t even know if TMO can do two PCSs in less than a year??? The only reason they knew they were going to Corpus is that they happened to stumble across some paperwork.
Moral of the story…Don’t count on anything, make lots of photocopies, and stay on top of $hit.