


5 out of 6 of those points were actions... will they have to invade Poland before we see them as a threat?
If 4GW (4th Generation Warfare) has taught us anything, it is that military parity does not need to be achieved for an actor to be a credible threat...
How many of those actions can be definitively be traced back to the Russian government? The only one you can with any certainty is the oil stuff, and that is because the executives of Gazprom and the other oil companies are current or very recent government officials.
The poisoning could have easily been by non-government rivals/criminals, though it is hard to separate the criminals from the officials over there. The protests could be backed by oligarchs trying to curry Putin's favor. Doctored elections are a domestic issue. The fact that Russians are behind the Georgian are only speculation from the media, you really want to depend on that? And Oh My God!!!! They planted a metal flag on the bottom of the ocean!!!! Runn!!!!!
Everything I have read from good sources and by smarter people than me depicts a Russia that is a broken shell of a country with a leadership and a populace that yearns for the 'good ol' days' of the USSR that really weren't that good to begin with. If Russia is such a great country with a lot of potential name one thing they produce, other than liquor and military equipment, that is competitive on the open market.
As for your point about 4th generation warfare. If anything, it has taught us to be more wary/scared of non-state actors than state ones.