^^^Agree that an increase in force size to deal with a more Global/widespread threat and response requirement is a must. We are still operating with the post cold-war force structure level, which was a significant draw-down from the 80's. The problem is that many in postitions of authority have become enamored with the theory that technology and tactics can make it a cleaner, more sophisticated warfighting experience. War is a tough business, and if you are going to engage in one, than it takes full commitment and that means troops on the ground, grinding it out and overwhelming the oppostition. It cannot be done solely from the air, and it cannot be done quickly by trying to figure out the minimum number of troops on the ground that you think can get it done if you plan on getting it done quickly.
Of the troops over there, how many are national guard and reservists and augmentees? I don't have the exact numbers on hand, but it is a significant percentage of the total. We have been backstopping the actve duty units with the national guard from the outset. The problem is not that the active duty forces are having trouble making there quota or are seeing a dramatic increase in those getting out, it is that the active duty ground force numbers in the military are not big enough to meet the requirement any more. The area that is seeing the biggest losses in numbers is the national guard and reserves. The "citizen soldiers" that have been deployed to OIF are seeing a lot of reduction in their numbers as they come home, and less people joining up, and without them the active duty force is not big enough to pick up the slack. The draft may not be the best or most popular option to make up the difference, and may not be necessary to increase the force size to the necessary level in the long term, but may be the only way to stop-gap the shortage in the short term. We used to have a force structure that would allow us to fight war on two seperate fronts.....not so much now. Are we going to increase the amount of guys on the ground in Iraq...I don't know. Depends on whether the leadership feels that is in our best interest or if they feel that giving it over to the Iraqis is the best solution. Those Iraqi forces that we have trained are in no way ready to fight this themselves, at least not with what they have shown thus far.
Either way, I think that the discussion on whether we are going to increase the troops on the ground in Iraq by 20K is seperate from whether or not we are going to increase the size of the Army and Marine Corps long term. I don't know on the first, but I think that this experience has shown that we need a bigger ground force, and thus a permanent increase in the force size that we maintain to deal with our commitments and the threats around the world. Also agree that this applies to ground troops, so no, you won't see an increase in aviation slots. The shortage is on the ground.