I feel that your recruiter is similar to mine, in regards to the other package requirements. He didn't provide any direction on the LORs and statement and wouldn't let me start them until I got an OAR of at least 50.
So looking at your chances, the obvious answer for your selection, along with everyone else's, is 50%. The quality of your package will dictate whether your chances go up or down (You control this) and where you rank amongst the other candidates at the board(You can't control this). You want to submit the best possible package and leave no negative area for the board to pick at. You might have LORs that don't really highlight the whole-person concept, a motivational statement that highlights areas that don't match up with the military's expectations, or being the only applicant at that time with a OAR in the 40s. The board doesn't tell you what your negatives are at that time. I haven't looked up the reference yet, but with you being prior enlisted, do you have to submit previous evals? Will they play a factor? If not, then disregard. It's good that you have a M.A. with a great GPA. So taking those factors, with a OAR of 41, outstanding LORs/statement, strong education/leadership background, and you end up not getting selected, then you can deduce that your OAR was the main factor. Now, it is possible to get picked up with a score in the 40s, but it may require multiple board sessions along with a big change in your package for resubmitting. Are you close to the age cut-off if you need to go through multiple boards? Attaining a score in the 50s will make you competitive and will check that box for the OAR.