Additional clarification
Steve Wilkins is generally correct. If I can use a perhaps overworked metaphor here, Naval Aviation has a "culture" that is distinct from SWO, Submarine/Undersea Warfare and Special Warfare. So cross-walking characteristics of Naval Aviation into the other warfare specialties is sometimes problematic. However, I would assert that 1) "Don't be a dick"; and, 2) "Don't piss off the Skipper" are cross-walkable over to the other warfare commununities. I would also assert that taking careful measure of SWO DHs would also reflect a relevant source of data on what the senior leadership of SWO-dom wants to see in their pool of XOs from which they will select COs.
Ask your NROTC Officer Instructors about sub-specialties. Also you might go to the BUPERs web-site and look at the Reference Section for pubs relating to officer personnel management. They should describe the sub-specialties. Sub-specialties can include the engineering disciplines, pol-mil, financial management, etc.- basically the billets "coded" for sub-specialists in the corresponding fields in which the NPS degree programs and other post grad degree programs qualify an officer to serve in . The Navy has also sprouted additional second-career opportunities from their set of sub-specialties. Those other second-career areas include FAO (Foreign Area Officer - definitely non-tech) and, frankly, the Joint Service Officer designation.
I think that today's detailers, if they are being honest, will agree that naval officers need to be qualified for something other than their warfare specialty after they reach O-5 generally speaking. In the context of Naval Aviation, just look at the number of squadron JOs vs number of DHs vs number of CO/XOs vs number of major commands they are qualified to be selected for. These numbers are not a pyramid they are a statistical stove-pipe or drinking straw. Naval Aviation is just not big enough to allow a significant number of officers to keep flying at the O-5 and beyond level. And generally speaking, if you're not on the command track, you could stay in flying billets well into your O-4 years and make it to 20 - but the underlying proviso is that you're jeopardizing somewhat your chance of selection to O-5. For those in the command track, again, compare the numbers of community command slots vs major command opportunities. Not a pyramid, a stove-pipe. So the stats for staying in the cockpit are grim; for staying in warfare community, but not in the cockpit, are better; for taking on a "second career" outside of community after you reach O-5 are even better. Ergo, I would assert once again "do what you want".
nfo2b asks about "not enough officers". BUPERS has to manage the total number of officers as required by legislation. Because of the up-or-out treadmill, they must manage officer numbers by Year Group (YG - tends to equate to the FY in which the Ensign was commissioned). Because of fleet needs and funding levels that vary over time and which are predicted in the Program Objectives Memorandum (POM) every two years at least, BUPERS can see that some YGs are over-sized and some might be under-sized. The phenomenon to which you refer suggests that they have identified a YG as being over-sized and are encouraging departures. And this is directly translatable to all naval officer communities but not all YGs in a given community. Yep, you guessed it, it's the old "big picture". BUPERS is looking at it; detailers are clever and very circumscribed in sharing their view to the JO on the phone. A JO in a squadron can't see it as clearly and some are simply oblivious to whatever takes place outside the cockpit.
Alert - sea story follows. I met many officers who related to me a Naval Aviation Schools Command Massacre that occurred during the post-Vietnam years. They said that the auditorium at P'cola was filled with all the AOCS students. Each got an envelope with a colored piece of paper in it or just a colored piece of paper. Then the color code was announced. One color meant you were thanked for your interest in national defense and told how to out-process immediately. The other color meant that you could return to the plan of the day (continue AOCS) but if you wanted, you too could out-process. This was indeed brutal. But either that YG was down-sized then or else naval aviation was going to offer some pretty dismal prospects for that over-sized number of future Ensigns. Even when I was in the Naval Aviation Training Command I had flight instructors who were Ensigns who had just received their wings. End of sea story.
My general observation about the Navy not having enough officers was meant to convey that the Navy has always had a conservative approach to the number of officers it needed. Converted to an officer to enlisted ratio, I believe the USMC has the fewest officers to enlisted; next USN; then Army and USAF is the worst (most numerous). When the Joint Service Officer legislation came into being (Goldwater-Nichols), the USN struggled to fill Joint Duty Assignment List (JDAL) billets with competitive officers from a pool of officers that did not get larger in order to fill the JDAL. This legislation tracks the promotion rates of non-JSOs vs JSOs within each service. This compels each service to not keep its competitive officers (i.e., those headed for O-5, O-6 and beyond) inside the service and away from the JDAL. Also, there are JDAL pre-requisites to make O-7.
As naval officers become more senior and are starting to be screened for Senior and Junior Service Colleges, shifting out of flying, there just are not a surplus of officers who can take education assignments (post-grad education, Service Colleges) or in general take non-warfare specialty (broader category than "in the cockpit") tours. An educational tour is Not Observed (NOB). If you get selected for NPS, that tour will likely be NOB.
Observation about fitreps: All other things being equal, the more senior the Skipper the more relative weight the fitrep has in any legislative (promotion) or administrative (command screen) boards. So having an Admiral sign your fitrep will carry more weight than an O-5. However, if that O-5 makes Flag, then that O-5 fitrep weighs more than the O-5 that did not make Flag (in time for your fitrep to be boarded).
News flash. Promotion boards in the Navy, I would assert, are better than any other service. Criticize them as you may, relative to the other services, I think they are better.
News flash. Naval Aviation Admin (command screen) boards are community affairs. Each community has its slate of officers that it wants command selected. The community rep on the command screen board is informally advised of who their community wants command screened. I stress informal here. There is no written record. However, key community flags and key community O-6s (Wing Commanders typically) informally make known their candidates within a YG that they want command selected. At the command screen board, each community rep briefs their community candidates one by one. Unless the candidate is marginal or demonstrably objectionable, the other community reps won't vote "no" on their automated secret ballots. This isn't a rubber stamp process. But let us say that the other communities tend to endorse each other mostly, predominantly, but not exclusively (i.e., rubber stamp the other community candidates for command). That is why it is career-enhancing to take community jobs so this coterie of community senior officers catches your act, good or bad.
I like the analogy about driving with blinders. Well said, nfo2b. In fact, its sage advice. The Navy is distinct in that we are naval officers first and foremost, warfare specialists second (Air, SWO, Sub, SpecWar). Get to your first squadron and take a measure of it. Get fully NATOPS qualified. Just about the time you've reached this milestone start asking yourself about being the best in the squadron; then start asking yourself if you could do a better job than any DH. Then get about mid-way into our first squadron tour and ask yourself about whether or not you could not only put your weapons on target but whether or not you are interested in putting an entire squadron on target(s). If you are, then maybe you are interested in being the Skipper. At least by that time the blinders will be off.
I would assert once again "do what you want".
