Everyone in J1/intermediate got a fair shake at the jet, and jet IP's (rather than primary helo and P-3 IP's) got to make the determination about who had the aptitude to continue on into strike...I can't imagine that the old system would have made as fair of an assessment. Having P-3 and helo instructors deciding who is cut for jets is not the answer IMO.
No dog in this fight, either (I've got nothing to do with Primary - I'm an Advanced Helo IP), but I think your view of the role of Primary, as well as how "we" IPs grade the way we do, is a bit off. Primary doesn't exist solely to determine who "is cut for jets", nor do the Primary IPs give grades based on whether or not they think someone can handle the strike/tailhook/however they're doing it this week pipeline. This would be similar to me - a Marine Phrog dude - grading someone based on whether or not I think they have the aptitude to fly AH/UH-1s, CH/MH-53s, or the smorgasbord of H-60s that the Navy flies.
Is pipeline/platform/duty station usually a result of NSS? Yup. Can the students or their IPs control their NSS? Nope. Can the students or their IPs control whether or not Big Navy is going to have a Jet Draft that week? Nope. Can the students or their IPs control whether or not the Marines are going to have an Osprey Draft that week? Nope.
In fact, you nailed it:
Granted sometimes it just came down to numbers and luck, but by and large when I was there, the guys and gals who went E2/C2 went there for a reason. Nothing wrong with that, and they weren't bad aviators, but 90% of the time, it was based on performance.
"The more things change..."
Since NSS and various 'drafts' are out of our hands, it's worth noting that "we" award grades based on whether or not the students meet the largely objective MPTS standards for each individual event. For example, on an ILS, I don't award a "4" based on whether or not the student is cut out for -60Rs. I award it if he "Performs IAW the FTI/INAV procedures and the applicable FAR/AIM. Maintains within 3/4 deflection (+/- 3 dot width) of localizer and glideslope; maintains airspeed +/- 10 KIAS." Yes, I have latitude to allow minor deviations, as long as they are "...brief, minor, and do not affect the safety of flight. Corrections must be appropriate and timely."
That's it. I don't award a lower grade I don't think he can ultimately handle a helo with an ILS - I award him his grade based on his performance in the TH-57C on that particular approach on that particular day.
BLOB: "Big Navy/Marine Corps/Coast Guard" determines where the students wind up when we're done with them. The IPs instruct and award grades based on the demonstrated preparation and skill of the students, as outlined in the appropriate CNATRA instructions.