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O-4 List out (last year)
- Thread starter B.D. Drummond
- Start date
exNavyOffRec
Well-Known Member
I worked with one that was one of the few that did pick up O-4 after being spot promoted, ended up getting out, going reserve, picked up O-4 shortly after and then O-5 on his first look, nice guy, my guess is he didn't pick up O-4 thanks to the Reactor Officer who was not a nice person to work for.
I also worked with a nuke officer who completed his 5 year obligation, leaving as an O-2, never was able to find out the story on that one.
This board was complete and utter insanity.
The PERS 43 detailer is freaking out, XO's and Skippers are floating conspiracy theories and blowing up Millington's phones, and guys are refusing boat orders that are about about to PCS this month.
I'm hearing reports of numbers like "only 2 guys on the whole carrier made the list." A lot of guys were on their second look and now they find themselves out on deployment and being told "hey buddy once we pull back into port, you're out of a job a month or two later" - they have 7 months from the release of the board results and finding out they are FOS x 2 and being forced out.
As for myself, I got 2 EP's leaving my fleet tour, a #1 EP on my tour as a flight instructor and took shooter orders to a deploying carrier. My name was not on that list. In fact, I only recognized less than a handful of aviators who did make it.
This board was a bloodbath. If you break the numbers down aviation community specific, it gets even worse. The rate for VP selectees was around 32%.
For the last 2 years everything we've been told from CNAF and MPRA is about a "JO retention crisis" and that they "can't even fill DH spots." They pulled people up, offered the bonus a year early, did all these surveys to figure out why nobody is sticking around yet they effectively have just ended the career of half of all senior JO aviators across the board.
On the surface, it's pure madness. Nobody has any answers.
The results of this board will have enormous, profound and far-reaching consequences, both directly and indirectly. The only question is: are the consequences calculated or unintended?
If you take a look at in-zone selection rates for pilots over the past 6 years:
FY09- 78%
FY10- 83%
FY11- 79%
FY12- 83%
FY13- 66%
FY14- 61%
FY15- 53%
The board precept set by SECNAV was 70% and the board met it to capacity for overall URL at 69.99%...
...but for some reason, SWOs and Subs selected at overcapacity around 94% and sucked up all the spots, leaving aviators to fend for the scraps.
The general consensus of PERS43 and aviation commanders right now seems to be "we don't know what happened here, but this ain't gonna work."
The direct consequences are that in the next year or two, there will be a large number of vacant DH billets across all aviation communities unless something is done, i.e. opening the floodgates on Above Zone selections next year or a major restructuring of the zone list.
The indirect results are that people a year or two behind me are looking up at me and seeing "the guy with 3 EP's and a shooter tour didn't make it so why try?" People behind me are already scrambling like rats from a sinking ship.
The board has just torn a gaping, sucking chest wound into the heart of naval aviation.
Anyway it's looking like by this time next year, I'm going to be out of a jerb.
Anybody need their lawn done?
The PERS 43 detailer is freaking out, XO's and Skippers are floating conspiracy theories and blowing up Millington's phones, and guys are refusing boat orders that are about about to PCS this month.
I'm hearing reports of numbers like "only 2 guys on the whole carrier made the list." A lot of guys were on their second look and now they find themselves out on deployment and being told "hey buddy once we pull back into port, you're out of a job a month or two later" - they have 7 months from the release of the board results and finding out they are FOS x 2 and being forced out.
As for myself, I got 2 EP's leaving my fleet tour, a #1 EP on my tour as a flight instructor and took shooter orders to a deploying carrier. My name was not on that list. In fact, I only recognized less than a handful of aviators who did make it.
This board was a bloodbath. If you break the numbers down aviation community specific, it gets even worse. The rate for VP selectees was around 32%.
For the last 2 years everything we've been told from CNAF and MPRA is about a "JO retention crisis" and that they "can't even fill DH spots." They pulled people up, offered the bonus a year early, did all these surveys to figure out why nobody is sticking around yet they effectively have just ended the career of half of all senior JO aviators across the board.
On the surface, it's pure madness. Nobody has any answers.
The results of this board will have enormous, profound and far-reaching consequences, both directly and indirectly. The only question is: are the consequences calculated or unintended?
If you take a look at in-zone selection rates for pilots over the past 6 years:
FY09- 78%
FY10- 83%
FY11- 79%
FY12- 83%
FY13- 66%
FY14- 61%
FY15- 53%
The board precept set by SECNAV was 70% and the board met it to capacity for overall URL at 69.99%...
...but for some reason, SWOs and Subs selected at overcapacity around 94% and sucked up all the spots, leaving aviators to fend for the scraps.
The general consensus of PERS43 and aviation commanders right now seems to be "we don't know what happened here, but this ain't gonna work."
The direct consequences are that in the next year or two, there will be a large number of vacant DH billets across all aviation communities unless something is done, i.e. opening the floodgates on Above Zone selections next year or a major restructuring of the zone list.
The indirect results are that people a year or two behind me are looking up at me and seeing "the guy with 3 EP's and a shooter tour didn't make it so why try?" People behind me are already scrambling like rats from a sinking ship.
The board has just torn a gaping, sucking chest wound into the heart of naval aviation.
Anyway it's looking like by this time next year, I'm going to be out of a jerb.
Anybody need their lawn done?
As much as I hate to say it, this storm of events is probably a good thing.
The navy is a behemoth bureaucracy extremely resistant to change/innovation. It took the loss of great aviators and a horrible K/D ratio in Vietnam before the brass was willing to listen to some JOs and admit that there were flaws in the system. (As just 1 of many examples)
It seems that crisis is a prerequisite for implementing true, needed change. Perhaps this will be the crisis we need to reinvigorate Naval Aviation.
The navy is a behemoth bureaucracy extremely resistant to change/innovation. It took the loss of great aviators and a horrible K/D ratio in Vietnam before the brass was willing to listen to some JOs and admit that there were flaws in the system. (As just 1 of many examples)
It seems that crisis is a prerequisite for implementing true, needed change. Perhaps this will be the crisis we need to reinvigorate Naval Aviation.
Over on Sailor Bob a really great spreadsheet was posted. Even though the selection rate for aviators sucked this year, more were selected for O4 for FY15 than FY14. It was only the NFOs that had a drop in the total number of officers selected. Interpret as you will but I would rather they keep selecting more each year and not worry about whether the selection rate was 50% or 80% so long as they are selecting ENOUGH. If they thought that 295 NAs were good enough for FY14 then certainly 321 are going to be enough for FY15 considering all the other force reductions going on.
Another thing to think about: It is unfortunate but the fact of the matter is that all the people who are hitting IZ for O4 commissioned right during the big push for more and more people while we were ramping up our actions in Iraq and Afghanistan. That means that the shear number of people hitting IZ for selection is significantly larger than prior year groups. (571 IZ eligible for FY15 vs 450 IZ eligible for FY14 or 338 for FY 12!!!) That is a major difference. Yes, FY 13 was a bit closer with 511 IZ. The numbers suck, but they make sense when taken in the context of how our Navy has grown to support the fighting efforts. As such it is not unreasonable to expect the selection rates in the next few years to start swinging back around to higher and higher percentages as the year groups get smaller due to lower accessions/retention rates.
I am well aware that in many ways this post is me 'playing outside of my sandbox'. However I follow very closely these selection rates because I know SWOs are cutthroat and I like to keep abreast of what is happening for PenguinGuy and what he will be encountering when he reaches IZ. (Which, btw considering how SWOs have been hemorrhaging JOs over the past couple of years I am somewhat shocked they had an increase in the total IZ.)
Another thing to think about: It is unfortunate but the fact of the matter is that all the people who are hitting IZ for O4 commissioned right during the big push for more and more people while we were ramping up our actions in Iraq and Afghanistan. That means that the shear number of people hitting IZ for selection is significantly larger than prior year groups. (571 IZ eligible for FY15 vs 450 IZ eligible for FY14 or 338 for FY 12!!!) That is a major difference. Yes, FY 13 was a bit closer with 511 IZ. The numbers suck, but they make sense when taken in the context of how our Navy has grown to support the fighting efforts. As such it is not unreasonable to expect the selection rates in the next few years to start swinging back around to higher and higher percentages as the year groups get smaller due to lower accessions/retention rates.
I am well aware that in many ways this post is me 'playing outside of my sandbox'. However I follow very closely these selection rates because I know SWOs are cutthroat and I like to keep abreast of what is happening for PenguinGuy and what he will be encountering when he reaches IZ. (Which, btw considering how SWOs have been hemorrhaging JOs over the past couple of years I am somewhat shocked they had an increase in the total IZ.)
Well listening through the NHA symposium this year, there were not a sufficient amount of O-4s selected from aviation communities last year, and this year's numbers weren't much better.
http://new.livestream.com/wab/nha/videos/51032110
Everything we've been told over the past 2 years is that not enough aviators are making it to the ADHSB.
The selectees have just been too black shoe heavy.
The more I dig into it, the more I'm convinced that this isn't going to be fixed anytime soon. I need to pry myself away from here and obsessing over it and start writing a resume. Time to face the music.
Spekkio
He bowls overhand.
I think that you're missing something: The Navy is not part of the draw-down plans, at least as far as I'm aware of. In fact, the Navy is 19 ships short of its goal of 306 as of 2013.
Even if your theory were correct and the tougher numbers were due to a sudden influx of JOs in the 2000s, it doesn't explain why there is such a large discrepancy between communities in a supposedly designator-blind board.
Been there, done that, got the t-shirt. It fucking sucks. Can't job hunt very well on a boat with shitty Internet.
Spekkio
He bowls overhand.
Meanwhile on the sub side of the house, they were shortening DH tours to as low as 24 mo (nominal 36 mo) for those who have met the checks in the box for deployment + command quals just as I left the boat to make room for a surplus of DHs.
If you're in that position you need to convince your command to send you to the beach, pronto. The Navy is done with you and you need to focus on starting your next life. 7mo seems like a lot but it can be shortened by terminal leave, TAP class requirements, etc.
When I FOSX2 I was underway and the boat sent me back home to Japan. Being overseas wasn't ideal, but it sure beat being on the ship. I was lucky that my CoC understood my position and was willing to be short handed so that I could transition more easily.
As I said, this is very much outside of my area of expertise. I just follow it as closely as I can. Not being in the middle of it I am sure that there are nuances of which I am not aware, e.g., total number of ships vs goal. I was just positing a theory based upon what I have witnessed. Perhaps my drawdown thoughts and bias are due to the fact that the Navy IS drawing down--just not where you guys (SWO/Subs and NA/NFOs) see it on a daily basis. Have you seen the number of Seabee Battalions decommed lately!?!?
No, my theory doesn't justify it in the designator blind board world. That being said, how blind is the board truly? When everyone is sitting around and looking at FITREPs, awards, and whatnot doesn't it become obvious who is a brown shoe and who isn't? Maybe the SWO/sub communities are finally starting to have better 'paper' going for the JOs thus making them more competitive against NA/NFOs with good paper. I don't know as I wasn't sitting on this board or any other. However there is more going on here than just a "let's screw all the aviation officers and force a ton of good guys out for no good reason".
Perhaps now is the time to move away from a designator blind board system for URL officers. It should be obvious to each community how many need to be promoted each FY within their own ranks in order to meet the manning needs. It seems to work well enough for the Staff communities.