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NEWS Is the pivot to China a bunch of bullshit?

S

SteveHolt!!!

Well-Known Member
pilot
Mirage said:
You ask me why I think raising taxes and decreasing spending inhibit growth, and then immediately acknowledge that doing those things "excessively" does exactly that. Of course it does that. Do any research at all and you'll find that has always been the case.
taxfoundation.org

The Impact of Individual Income Tax Changes on Economic Growth

Research almost invariably shows a negative relationship between income tax rates and gross domestic product (GDP). Cuts to marginal tax rates are highly correlated with decreases in the unemployment rate.
taxfoundation.org taxfoundation.org


Perhaps tell them to listen to Fed Chairman Powell, who said it is "time, or past time, to get back to an adult conversation among elected officials about getting the federal government back on a sustainable fiscal path." Spending being popular doesn't make it smart. Cake is popular in my house but we don't eat it constantly, because we have an adult conversation about that, too.

You asking if I'd eat a big tax increase is indicative of not thinking our current path through to it's logical end. A big tax increase is coming, period. Big spending cuts are coming, period. The longer we wait to balance the budget, the larger the tax increase and budget cuts will be. That's just a mathematical fact. There's just no way to grow our way out of this hole at this point short of an AI miracle, so there's no other possible solution to the problem. That's what everyone who does this for a living means when they say our current path is unsustainable. It's foolish to ignore them.
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Do I need to be more direct? What spending, specifically, do you want to cut?

How much more tax are you willing to pay?
 
R

Random8145

Registered User
Mirage said:
You ask me why I think raising taxes and decreasing spending inhibit growth, and then immediately acknowledge that doing those things "excessively" does exactly that. Of course it does that. Do any research at all and you'll find that has always been the case.
taxfoundation.org

The Impact of Individual Income Tax Changes on Economic Growth

Research almost invariably shows a negative relationship between income tax rates and gross domestic product (GDP). Cuts to marginal tax rates are highly correlated with decreases in the unemployment rate.
taxfoundation.org taxfoundation.org
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That's why I said excessively, not just in general. Like if we raise the top individual income tax to 43%, that might not hurt anything. But if we raise it up to 95%, that likely would be very bad. As for research, it kinda depends on who you ask and can get into some really nitty-gritty debate. The relationship between taxes and economic growth isn't as cut-and-dried as many think until you start getting into really high levels. Nor is the relationship between government spending and economic health. Reducing government spending could probably help the economy so long as it isn't on things that are necessary to facilitate the economy's functioning and also if the money is not kept by the government but put back into the economy.
 
M

Mirage

Well-Known Member
pilot
SteveHolt!!! said:
Do I need to be more direct? What spending, specifically, do you want to cut?

How much more tax are you willing to pay?
Click to expand...
I have detailed my thoughts on this repeatedly on many threads. In short, I believe we should cut some defense spending, a lot of foreign aid, a lot of random pet projects like funding for the Tunisian travel industry, and, most importantly, entitlement reform. After that's done, raise taxes as necessary to have a surplus until we pay down the debt to historical norms. If you're looking for a comprehensive plan, feel free to google "balance the budget game", pick one, make your own and see just how dramatic we have to be to actually accomplish this goal. If you haven't done it before, it's eye opening, and you'll see what I mean that it's impossible to accomplish without taking a lot of money out of our economy each year until the job is done.

Random8145 said:
That's why I said excessively, not just in general. Like if we raise the top individual income tax to 43%, that might not hurt anything. But if we raise it up to 95%, that likely would be very bad. As for research, it kinda depends on who you ask and can get into some really nitty-gritty debate. The relationship between taxes and economic growth isn't as cut-and-dried as many think until you start getting into really high levels. Nor is the relationship between government spending and economic health. Reducing government spending could probably help the economy so long as it isn't on things that are necessary to facilitate the economy's functioning and also if the money is not kept by the government but put back into the economy.
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As detailed above, go play one of the budget games and you let me know if you think we can do it without meeting your vague "excessive" threshold for it to matter. For starters, though, from the first line of the link I posted before, "Research almost invariably shows a negative relationship between income tax rates and gross domestic product (GDP)."
 
R

Random8145

Registered User
Mirage said:
As detailed above, go play one of the budget games and you let me know if you think we can do it without meeting your vague "excessive" threshold for it to matter. For starters, though, from the first line of the link I posted before, "Research almost invariably shows a negative relationship between income tax rates and gross domestic product (GDP)."
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Of course what constitutes excessive taxation can be vague, but that doesn't mean it isn't a real thing. And yes your link says that, but that is one organization. There are other organizations that will claim the opposite. They all claim they're "non-partisan" which is usually nonsense.
 
M

Mirage

Well-Known Member
pilot
Random8145 said:
Of course what constitutes excessive taxation can be vague, but that doesn't mean it isn't a real thing. And yes your link says that, but that is one organization. There are other organizations that will claim the opposite. They all claim they're "non-partisan" which is usually nonsense.
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I have literally never seen anyone claim that significantly reduced government spending or significantly increased taxation don't affect growth rate. That's certainly not what happened in Greece under austerity, or any other place it's been done to my knowledge.

www.imf.org

Improving Economic Growth: Cut Spending or Raise Taxes? - IMF F&D Magazine

A new study offers more evidence that cutting spending is less harmful to economic growth than raising taxes.
www.imf.org
Notice in respected studies like this they take it for granted that both of these actions are recessionary, the debate is only over which is worse.
 
R

Random8145

Registered User
Mirage said:
I have literally never seen anyone claim that significantly reduced government spending or significantly increased taxation don't affect growth rate. That's certainly not what happened in Greece under austerity, or any other place it's been done to my knowledge.

www.imf.org

Improving Economic Growth: Cut Spending or Raise Taxes? - IMF F&D Magazine

A new study offers more evidence that cutting spending is less harmful to economic growth than raising taxes.
www.imf.org
Notice in respected studies like this they take it for granted that both of these actions are recessionary, the debate is only over which is worse.
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The problem is that as you basically said earlier, "significantly" is arbitrary. What one side says is significantly raising taxes or cutting spending, the other side will argue is not.
 
R

Random8145

Registered User
SteveHolt!!! said:
Give a prompt. I’ll derail the shit out of this train wreck.
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Wouldn't that be redundant? I mean if it's a train wreck, doesn't that imply it is already derailed? :)

Also this is kind of ironic to me as I was just reading about an actual derailment, the Montparnasse train derailment of 1895. Interestingly, the locomotive itself suffered very little actual damage:

Montparnasse-Train-Wreck-photos (1).jpg
 
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Griz882

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
Brett327 said:
This is worse than listening to “history buff” retirees arguing about what tactics were effective during the civil war.
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Hey now…I see someone doesn’t see the beauty of a regiment wheeling left on a battlefield.
 
M

Mirage

Well-Known Member
pilot
Griz882 said:
Shipmate, this thing derailed the minute @Mirage started his typical “that’s not what I said” style. Were left to deal with the fire and environmental disaster.
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And your style, apparently, is to try to get the thread on track with... unprovoked personal attacks?
 
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